MMR vaccines

Post Reply New Topic

http://www.whydontyoutrythis.com/2013/0 ... m.html?m=1

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 425.x/full

From the article:

In fact, the court did not determine that Ryan Mojabi got autism from an MMR vaccination. Rather, he developed encephalitis a couple of weeks after being vaccinated. Encephalitis is not autism and does not cause autism.

Furthermore, the court did not rule that MMR causes autism. To the contrary, the court determined that the awarding of damages were appropriate without positively determining that the MMR was the cause or what it caused.

Courts are notoriously bad at science.

It is not courts that determine truth, but scientists.

If vaccines cause some cases of autism, it's much more likely to be some funky autoimmune reaction, rather than the toxicity of the thimerosal preservative.

Especially for MMR since thimerosal apparently isn't even used in MMR vaccines.

As an example, here's CDC on Guillain-Barre Syndrome:

So, yes, I think autoimmune is a realistic possibility.

"No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study

Background:  A causal relationship between the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine and occurrence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) has been claimed, based on an increase in ASD in the USA and the UK after introduction of the MMR vaccine. However, the possibility that this increase is coincidental has not been eliminated. The unique circumstances of a Japanese MMR vaccination program provide an opportunity for comparison of ASD incidence before and after termination of the program.
Methods:  This study examined cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven for children born from 1988 to 1996 in Kohoku Ward (population approximately 300,000), Yokohama, Japan. ASD cases included all cases of pervasive developmental disorders according to ICD-10 guidelines.
Results:  The MMR vaccination rate in the city of Yokohama declined significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1992, and not a single vaccination was administered in 1993 or thereafter. In contrast, cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven increased significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1996 and most notably rose dramatically beginning with the birth cohort of 1993.
Conclusions:  The significance of this finding is that MMR vaccination is most unlikely to be a main cause of ASD, that it cannot explain the rise over time in the incidence of ASD, and that withdrawal of MMR in countries where it is still being used cannot be expected to lead to a reduction in the incidence of ASD."

From the discussion:
"First, unlike the previously published data dealing with time trends in frequency of ASD following introduction of MMR, we have findings on the effects on incidence following withdrawal of MMR. The use of epidemiological data to test a causal hypothesis is immensely strengthened by the availability of time trends that relate to the loss of a postulated risk factor as well as those related to its appearance (Rutter & Smith, 1995). Second, we have data on the likely true incidence of ASD in a general population with systematic screening and an effective system for early diagnosis. This has major advantages over reliance on administrative rates that are well below the true rates. Third, we have used incidence based on systematic follow-up of birth cohorts, rather than prevalence figures, which are much more open to biases."

The whole MMR vaccine causing ASD is based on correlational data. This above study that I linked earlier and from which I took quotes, is as much proof as one will likely ever get outside of a controlled experiment that MMR vaccine's are not causing ASDs.

Even IF they caused it...when talking to older people you hear so often about friends and relative getting sick, dying, or being disabled for their lifetimes from illnesses, that nobody today f***s about. Polio, Tetanus, Diphterie...I needed to inform myself on purpose what that even is exactly, because beside being vaccinated against it, I knew nothing from that illnesses, because of them simply not being actives part anymore in our lifes. My partners grandfather could tell me immidiately about them, and what they cause, simply because these illnesses affected enough people, that almost everyone knew someone by himself, that was affected by them.

So even if there was the 0,0001% chance of causing autism, I´d vaccinate my kids. Simply because by ratio, not being vaccinated can be more risc to them, then the risc of vaccination. (Which can cause illnesses in certain person...but that risc is outmatched by the risc of serious illnesses.) Yes, every vaccination has a small risc of an serious overreaction of the immune system. But comparing the the people having overreactions against pox vaccination vs. the people that would have died, if pox were not wiped out, leads to a definite winner.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEqHML98RgU[/youtube]

Bayes' Rule can be a useful tool when considering claims of this kind.

Okay, a Mom and Dad says, wow, it really seems like there was a pronounced change after our child got the vaccination, that's when the issues really seemed to start.

So, from this decision point, which is more likely, a spectacular coincidence or some autoimmune condition? And perhaps sometimes one, sometimes the other. I am not saying autoimmune is always the answer. I'm just saying we should not dismiss the claims of the parents out of hand.

A coincidence, because vaccinated children are not more likely to have autism.

To me, it's an article of faith if we say vaccines never cause autism.

And I do not want this debate to overshadow the larger issue of whether autoimmune conditions cause (some) cases of autism. Perhaps it's somewhat similar to what the CDC says about Guillain Barre Syndrome (GBS) above, autoimmune from a variety of causes, one small subset of which is post-vaccine.

If they do so, they do so so rarely as to be significantly insignificant.

This is not faith. There is lot of evidence that backs that up.

cavernio posts a link to a study from Japan. There was another big one in Denmark.

And, unsurprisingly, Cochrane have covered it:

http://summaries.cochrane.org/CD004407/ ... nd-rubella

Key quote: "We could assess no significant association between MMR immunisation and the following conditions: autism, asthma, leukaemia, hay fever, type 1 diabetes, gait disturbance, Crohn's disease, demyelinating diseases, or bacterial or viral infections."

Given that rubella is one of the few definitive causes of autism we are certain of, the MMR actually prevents autism.

I strongly recommend the video on Baye's Rule and rational thinking.

How do we know if sequential things are connected causally?
One thing following another is not enough to conclude that the first thing caused the second.

Per CDC, there is a connection between GBS and the bacterium Campylobacter jejuni. And a considerably weaker connection between GBS and getting a vaccine, although still probably a risk well worth taking and going ahead and getting the vaccine. (When you get a flu vaccine the sheet typically asks, 'Have you had Guillain-Barre Syndrome before?' and a handful of other questions. So, it is a real issue.)

*And fortunately, GBS is rare in any case.