Early autism screening has limited effect

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I'm not surprised. There are also pockets of society which are underdiagnosed, usually relating to gender, race, socioeconomic status, and proximity to urban centers.

I wouldn't doubt if the true statistic for ASD in the population is about 2% or so.

I would have never been screened as a child because I had a rural poverty background and did well at school with tests. Even the teachers were kind of backwards and ignorant about looking for symptoms of various sorts of disorder. If you were intelligent enough, they were inevitably going to just call you awkward, shy, and nerdy. You would have had to display obvious signs of "classic autism" in a disruptive way or have chronic issues focusing in class (ADHD style) to get examined. I remember kids who probably needed professional help who were instead ignored or mocked by teachers, especially if they were low on the hierarchal totem pole of favorable families in the county.

Unless a 3-year-old is displaying severe development delays or are non-verbal or whatever, it is difficult to tell if the child is on the spectrum. Some ASD symptoms are typical traits in typically developing toddlers, which most grow out of. A toddler (aged 1-3) can be repetitive, have echolalia, flap their hands, dislike loud noise, and appear shy and not make eye contact with people they don't know very well. I used to volunteer at a preschool with children aged 2-4, and I assume most of them were NTs, and they displayed all the behaviours I listed. So it's silly to go "oh my 3-year-old is very shy and doesn't like loud noises, shall I get her assessed for Asperger's?" It's best to wait a few years, unless they are showing severe delays or differences that are atypical.

This suggests the 'Were there any signs before the age of 3? " criteria needs to be rethought .