How Can We Prepare for Social Unrest & Civil Disorder?

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The yellow press is doing it's best to promote panic - from the headlines you'd think mobs in Iceland and Eastern Europe were beheading heads of state, that the soldiers were lynching their generals and policemen were being hanged from the nearest lamppost.

The truth is that economic collapse, at least in modern times, very rarely leads to anarchy. It may lead to a change of leadership at the top, but the State endures. Anarchy is both rare and usually short-lived (Somalia would now have a de facto government had it not been for Ethiopian invasion, and part of Somalia, the Somaliland, does have a functioning government - even Somalia doesn't have country-wide anarchy). Famine did not lead to unrest in North Korea; hyperinflation and general economic ruin did not lead to anarchy in Zimbabwe; Argentine bankruptcy ushered in a new administration. All of these were far more severe than the current crisis is in the US or other developed countries, even Iceland. If you prefer Western examples, military defeat, territorial losses, hyperinflation and economic collapse in post-WWI Germany led to a dictatorship, not to anarchy. The prospect that a recession will bring down the State in Western countries is laughable. But panic sells, and some people (this seems particularly common in the US) are addicted to panic and/or hysteria.

The truth is that just about everybody who is not a fugitive, a mercenary or a gang leader has a vested interest in a functioning State (but not necessarily in the politicians currently in the top jobs). Many may wish for different leadership, but few really want anarchy. Everybody complains about governments, but nobody moves to Somalia. People vote with their feet for functioning, solid states.

I think we are miles away from panic mode even with respect to the more radical media outlets. You will know when the real panic starts when the newspeople don't start coming to work since they usually get a few days or hours notice about the serious stuff.
When the TV stations quit broadcasting it's time to grab the ol 12 gauge and hang on to your ass.

Even during war the only way the TV stations go off air is when they're blown up. Serbian TV kept going until the US dropped some bombs on it. The Israelis never did kill Hizbullah TV during the 2006 Lebanon war, despite trying as hard as they could. It would go off for 30 seconds, then be right back up. On Ferfal's blog he tells of hiding in his apartment during the chaos induced by days long blackouts in Buenos Aires-but even then the radio stations kept broadcasting. The only way that the telejournalists would head for the hills is if there would be a nuclear war, and virtually nobody is predicting that.

Radio and TV stations in earthquake zones in the US have generators to keep going. KRON-TV in San Francisco had their news set destroyed by the 1989 earthquake, so they jerry rigged something up and had the reporter broadcasting from an office. I once saw an ABC report on the sole functioning radio station in an area of Florida that had just been hit with back to back hurricanes. They still had intact towers and transmitters, so they huddled in the transmitter shack next to the demolished studios and used cell phones and jerry rigged mikes to stay on air.

In the event of a nuclear war, you will vaporize, 12 gauge or no, so I wouldn't worry about it. Anything else, the stations will stay on air, unless the rioters try to take them over, which only happens in a coup. It didn't happen in Argentina. Looters in New Orleans ignored WLW and a few other stations in downtown NO, so they were back up and running within days.

Even at the end of World War II, with all its chaos, there was no single sec. in which not at least one German radio station was on air. The Allied Troops just replaced the speakers and the journalist and continued transmitting.

Even in WWII Japan, the only country to have ever been nuked, the radio kept on transmitting, even after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Japan's leaders did fear a general breakdown of law and order, though it didn't happen. Their fears were probably not groundless, though getting nuked, having much of your country reduced to rubble, running out of fuel (they couldn't deploy even suicide bombers by then) and just about everything else is rather more severe than a recession. For a general collapse of civilisation to happen, it would take a "28 Days Later" scale of catastrophe.

I'm not worried.
If everyone here is panicking, join me in my worldwide nuclear disarament mission. Those are the biggest threat to the civilized world.
Think about it, if someone decides to use the stockpile on us, we are all pretty much screwed. It's your planet. Exercise your power. Tell them you don't want the things. Make them all get rid of them. If no one has them, no one will need them. There will be no excuse for them. It's your life, your world.

The Atomic Problem, that enriched stuff cannot be un enriched. Everything near it is a forever problem.

There might be 100,000 bombs now, it will take a big bomb locker. We also have all the wastes from production, and from power plants.

Undoing the end would be nice, but costly. Then we have to watch it for ten million years or so till it turns to lead.

This radio, do they play good music, tell stories, or just mention how much rice Hiroshima and Nagasaki will not be using?

Government is pretending that they are doing something now, smoke and mirrors.

The DOW reached 8,000 today, the $200 Trillion dollar problem is solved?

The change in accounting standards now make everything I own worth the new price, I am rich?

No panic, but rapidly falling faith.

Technically, it can be - just melt it with depleted uranium. The constraints are political rather than technical.

The collaspe models cited for war time are not at all the same as a 'social' meltdown which will be more akin to what happened when the Soviet Union imploded and broke down into ethic and social factions with an almost complete breakdown in the old technical systems including radio and televison and even transportation. If the US goes into a breakdown mode it will be very similar. Very few radio people will report to work if they haven't been paid even if the comm grid is still up and in one piece. I'm not to sure that even the old Civil Defense syetms are still functional in the country today. We have neglected preparedness for many years since we are 'to big to fail'.

The root of all evil is Bill Gates.

Computers lead to this problem. The market crash of 1991 was caused by computer trading programs, all written to sell under the same conditions, and they did.

My printer does that now and then, my computer refuses to shut down, I have to pull the plug.

Computers were used to figure risk/reward, for exotic securities. Exotic has the traditional meaning, dancing near naked on stage.

No humans are at fault, they just did what the computer told them to do. The Redmond Defense.

Computers controlled costs by not giving raises, that left more money to buy more computers, or at least some upgrades. Computers do have self interest.

Maximising earnings is easy, play humans for fools, it works.

To a computer a dollar, and a credit default swap, are the same, they are not programed to think that someday people may not want dollars.

Leverage is easy, sixty times assets returns sixty times more winnings, or losses.

When the numbers started falling, the computers said buy more exotics, based on high interest sub prime mortgages. The question was, how can we make the most? No one ever asked How can we avoid losses.

The results:

Losses are about three times the Gross Domestic Product, all good and services produced.

Workers save rather than spend, computers never were told that could happen. Everything was based on workers spending everything to pay interest on their debt.

Computers were programed based, as so many news articles now say, the lowest since 1967 when we started keeping records. So all economic trends were based on the last 40 years. There were a few minor downturns, the longest lasted eighteen months. Based on historical data, computers announce the recession ends next month, for none have lasted longer.

GIGO, Garbage In Garbage Out. The computers all say, borrow a lot of money, build lots of houses and cars, sell them and write securities based on the debt at 60-1 leverage. They do not understand why no one listens to them anymore.

No one told them of Depression and War, they were too young to hear of such things. When they did question, they were told failure is not an option, we are too big to fail.

Official unemployment is 15.6 % but we all know it is higher. They are not spending, nor are the 750,000 who will be laid off next month. As this is 70% of the economy, it is much larger than AIG.

It is not a loss, it is savings, a loss to spending. Computers and the Marketing Department were never told this could happen.

The Internet has changed marketing, newspapers, radio, TV, have all been losing viewers back during the boom years. One line, one day, in my Regional Wall Street Journal, $750. For that I can have a web site. I buy everything on line now. I used to spend $10 in gas, half a day, and then pay local tax.

Media and local retail are changing, then falling house prices, unemployment, loss of easy credit, the end of local taxes, just as they went in debt for the new sports arena, convention center, and watched their retirement vanish in the market. Government is a business, and bankrupt.

Government were special people, their own retirement and health care, what that means is they did not pay into Social Security. If they have less than $1500 they might qualify for SSI.

California is already sending out IOUs. As most welfare is Federal, they cannot just steal it.

Without Food Stamps, most grocery stores would go under.

California was $42,000,000,000 short at the end of the boom. I would expect the next budget to be $100 Billion short.

Defaulting on your Bonds causes interest rates to go up, and the whole debt becomes due.

A lot of States are facing this problem.

Government is a business, and when the paychecks stop and pension fund is gone, so are the workers.

The Hell's Angels have a bid in to rename themselves, Hell's Angels and California Highway Patrol Motorcycle Club. Privitization is being considered. They are one of the few organizations that can come up with cash.

The FCC made large on selling Spectrum, but now with cable, Internet, media markets are not worth the "Donations" paid.

Most people do not wait for the five o'clock news, they go to the computer to see if it is raining outside.

As the Government continues to report, all computer models show the Recession ended two months ago.

It has to be right, it just has to!

Too big to fail means no plan "B".

A recent trend, cities are seeing the damage caused by forclosure. Yes, under the law the Civil Sheriff must evict the dead beats, but after standing on the sidewalk for a half hour, making it legal, they can go back in as squaters.

Designated Squater is an interesting concept.

This is in response to mortgage holders who foreclose and evict, to get their writeoff, then walk away, not even bidding the debt at the Sheriff's Sale. Then it sits empty till local law can sell it for back taxes.

Following this up with a demand for taxes to the resident, they can perfect title. Seven years paying taxes in most places makes you the owner. If the taxes are paid there is no demand letter to the registered owner.

Taking their claim to court will cost a lot more than the property is worth.

Showing a Tax Reciept is proof of a reason to occupy. If they win in Court, pay the taxes, you get a refund.

Paying sewer, water, garbage, electric, is local income.

It also gives a lot of papers with your name on it.

Remember to vote in every local election.

Volenteer for local services, Library, Schools, Join the Garden Club.

Work for the re-election of the Civil Judge, give $25 to the cause.

"My country right or wrong, if right to be kept right, if wrong to be set right."

I don't think the flu pandemic has been discussed in this thread. If a bird flu or something similar causes a pandemic flu in humans, the world is in for big trouble. The USA government has a website devoted to educating the public about preparedness for a pandemic:

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/individual/index.html


Also, have any of you gotten your pamphlet on pandemic and bio-hazard preparedness in the last year from the Dept of Health and Human Services sent in snail mail? We got ours last year. It tells you all about a possible flu pandemic and how to prepare for it. Also, they're concerned with germ warfare and other bio hazard conditions. Must be serious if the government goes to the trouble of warning the public with a mass mailing like that.

I started stockpiling necessities for an emergency like a pandemic, but we got behind on that endeavor. My husband and I need to take this more seriously and stock up on everything we can think of... even OTC meds and kleenex... toilet paper... batteries... there is a list on their website that gives suggestions on what to get. It may seem stupid preparing for something we hope will never happen, but as they explain on that website, the odds are really good for a pandemic happening soon. So better safe than sorry I guess.

More a question of when than if. Pandemics were normal events even before people started flying all over the world all the time.

I wonder if we'll have plague planes, airliners full of people flying around because they aren't permitted to land anyplace.

It could be a disaster for the economy if all those unemployed people weren't able to make it into work.

And don't forget smallpox, a longtime companion that might come to visit once again. It's an absolutely brilliant virus. The Jehovah's Witnesses haven't come around since I told them that it's the best evidence available that life forms on earth have an Intelligent Designer.

And much worst than anything we have today. The Black Death whipped in 14th century about 30% of European population out in a few years. Even here the social structure were still maintained.

It takes for a society really a lot to break down. The human "herd instinct" is obviously quite strong.

Bird flu has been around longer than humans probably - I've yet to hear a cogent reason regarding flu pandemics as to why now. There are lots of reasons for politicians to stoke panics (think Rice's talk of mushroom clouds regarding Iraq) or to encourage pointless preparedness for something (think preaching that hiding under a desk would protect people from nuclear war with the Soviets). Historically, well-fed populations with adequate sanitation don't get epidemics. Epidemics on a truly catastrophic scale happened in places like half-starved, rat-infested Little Ice Age Europe (the Black Plague), or among the enslaved, malnourished, overworked-to-the-brink-of-death population of Spain's colonies (smallpox in the New World).

No only - the Spanish Flue, a variant of the Bird Flue, killed besides the normal "candidates" mostly relative young and healthy people. There is always a potential danger of horrible pandemic killing 100 of Millions - but this does not lead directly to civil unrest. Therefore it is in respect of this topic of no real interest.

The past was built on family, community, religion, respect for government, we do not have any of those factors left.

We are more like the Russians turning to cheap vodka which showed that a Soviet of Drunks would not work.

We don't revolt, we abandon structures quietly.

The government is paying unemployment to 12 million, 32 millon are getting Food Stamps, there are no jobs, so we will all adjust to living without costs.

There is no chance of the basic problem, the housing bubble, being fixed. The government is spending imaginary money already, and can't stop.

They envision a bottom, then growth, at 1% it will take 100 years to recover.

I doubt if most of these systems will still be around for the November 2010 elections.

50,000,000 unemployed, half the country on food stamps, it will be different.