Any Preppers out there?

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^^^ In the breakdown of civilization, the greatest threat will be from our fellow man turning on each other for what resources they can gain. The moment no one can enforce rules, animals being raping, pillaging and looting at will.

I expect a general energy crisis over a number of years. People will realise too late that oil supply is truly on the decline permanently i.e we will never produce the stuff at the same rate ever again. The whole global logstical/transport system will collapse and cause large cities to empty out as people go to the food and water because the food and water is not coming to them. In the process there will be some desperate resource-related wars but since the stuff just isn't readily available, the war machines of the major powers will grind to a halt as local guerrilla forces pick them off. Large countries will splinter into smaller units. The USA will no longer be the USA and Europe will return to nation states or smaller.
The huge monoculture systems of our current time will collapse because they can't afford to truck/fly/sail the goods to the other side of the world. Agriculture will become much more diversified and orientated to meeting local needs. Farmers will sell produce at local markets down the road and will grow a broader range of crops. Agriculture will be badly hit by the lack of fertilizers and a general de-mechanisation of farming. I focus on agriculture because it will become a major focus of the future. People will learn how to slaughter animals and fowl again to feed themselves. Any unpleasant feelings about this will be removed by hunger pangs.
There will be a return to the use of simpler technologies that do not need large amounts of energy to operate. Manual methods of producing things will become popular again.
The biggest issue I see coming is the fact that we don't have good energy fallback positions. We can't easily go back to using wood because the forests are long gone. I see an increased use of coal with all the awful environmental effects.
I see marauders surviving by attacking and taking from others. Essentially I see current Third World conditions becoming the norm in currently First World countries.
The big question is when this will happen, not if it will happen. Personally I believe Peak Oil has already happened and that this whole energy crisis scenario as already in the process of unfolding. I see events such as the Arab Spring, the whole Euro Crisis and the Occupy Wall Street movements as the early stages of a much bigger crisis. I think that the elites of the world know what is coming but are very scared of what will happen when the common man realises what is happening. Fear of unleashing a wave of panic is what the elite avoid by remaining silent and trying to create an atmosphere of 'business as usual'. There is a manic struggle to maintain the traditional status quo and a lot of secret prepping amongst the elite for when the inevitable happens.
If you think about the effect of a total stoppage to oil supply from the Middle East would be on First World economies, you will see the the First World would not allow such a stoppage to continue for any length of time. The supply lines would have to be restored before the oil reserves of te First World ran out, especially the reserves for the military. Basically, if the First World leave things till when their own military are out of oil or severely restricted by oil shortage, the game will be over. In other words pre-emptive strikes to prevent this are very likely. These strikes could likely be made by Israel (but then again it could be Turkey being dragged into conflict) and then the USA comes in to 'mediate' the ensuing conflict. The scenario where the First World fail to get the oil supply lines pumping again are the worst prospect. It would cause economic and mayhem that could easily overwhelm the institutions of democracy in the USA and Europe. Hungry people lose their civility quite quickly. This type of scenario is what cancause an abrupt crisis in the near future. If nothing of the sort happens, we are in for 2-3 decades of slow grinding downwards economically.

Its basically a very very large castle of cards and it won't take much more for the whole thing to collapse. It is already collapsing I believe. Terribly sorry to be so doom and gloom but it is what I really think.

Being a hillbilly has always lent me to being more focused on issues like this. However, being poor at organization and planning, it has never gone past more than learning skills (I'm an avid hunter and fisher). I still consider myself a "prepper".

Bullets and beans

I think every house should have, at a minimum, a couple 5-pound bags of rice, a couple bags of beans, and a couple gallons of water stored (preferably more like 10 or 20 gallons, or at least access to containers that could be filled up if need be) This doesn't cost much of anything, doesn't take up much space, and could go a long way in the disaster situations that are most likely to occur.

I think every house should have at least 1 rifle, too. You might not like the idea of guns, but guess who doesn't mind using them to get what they want? When seconds count, the police are only minutes away. And in any kind of emergency situation, they might be too busy taking care of themselves to protect you anyways.


I also took up gardening a while back. The way the world is going, I think those skills will likely be needed some day... There's a lot to learn about growing plants, and people who think "I'll just plant a garden and grow all my food" are probably in for a rude awakening if they don't have a lot of experience going into it. I suppose this depends on climate, too, though. It would be easier in some places than others.

I used to be really big in survivalism and stuff. Now not so much. I've been caught off guard by some stuff over the years, and it's made me reconsider being more into it again. One example, we had to evacuate our apartment one winter because the roof was collapsing, and I forgot to bring my "bug out bag" with me. Oops. And I'd not shovelled the snow off my car so I couldn't go anywhere in it. Yep. Also, much of my "survival" food stash has just gotten eaten over the years. My dried beans and stuff, just due to my mom not buying as much food as she used to. In that regard, the S has hit the F in my life in some ways.

In some ways, I'm well suited for it, though. In severe crisis situations, I have no emotional response. I have another Aspie friend like this, too. For example, his family was on a boat and it was on the water during a storm. The rest of his family was panicking and he was just perfectly calm. For me, I got in a car crash and had zero negative emotional response to it for 3-4 days. Right as soon as I got home I did the "practical" thing and just immediately went on craigslist looking for more cars. The rest of my family was shook up, and I just didn't get it until it hit me 3-4 days later. So I can get through severe crisis situations quite well, then totally flip out over something small. Yay.

I think the best way to look at survivalism, read about FerFAL, he wrote an SHTF guide about him surviving Argentina's economic collapse. He's got the best perspective I've seen, and he really changed mine.

As for me, though, I try to learn as many practical skills as possible. Cooking, auto repair, etc. The closest "SHTF" scenario I've had so far was pretty tame. Power was out for 4 days. I did well. I cooked on my grill. I also cooked things on my car exhaust manifold, too. In some ways, my outside the box thinking really helped things. I helped my neighbor out also by letting him charge his phone on my inverter. I don't have a generator yet, but bought an inverter before it, so I used that for power. Not bad stuff. The rest of my family might not have figured out how to cook or do anything without me, and I don't know if I should feel good or bad about that. They're all women, too, though.

I dunno, part of me thinks I'd be good in a survival situation just thanks to practical skills I have and knowledge. My family certainly appreciated that I had "prepped" on some level for that, and knew what to do and stuff. So we didn't end up having to join the masses at McDonalds and whatnot. I feel like lack of social skills is more trumped by actual skills and abilities in these scenarios.

In the future, I'd like to be as self sustaining as possible. Probably in Northern New England here in America, or possibly Hokkaido in Japan. Maybe own a small farm where I farm herbs and stuff. Possibly be totally off grid, too. I don't know how any potential wife or romantic partners would like such a lifestyle, though, so that has to be weighed in the balance, too. I'm only 21, so maybe my opinions my change.

In the future, the next SHTF skill I'd like to learn is odd. Baking. I suck at baking. I'd like to be able to bake my own bread well. I also want a grain grinder, so I can make my own flour. You can buy animal feed grade grain for very cheap. Something like a hundred bucks per ton or something. http://web.archive.org/web/200806250300 ... ods000.htm Kurt Saxon was a very controversial, pretty bitter fellow really, but his food advice is spot on. But baking, though, I'd like to learn to bake. OH! For an oven, an Indian man taught me how to make a tandoor out of a flower pot.

I think one of the things for survivalism, too, is taking advice when people give it. Learning new skills whenever it's possible. With the flower pot thing, I was just waiting at the Indian restaurant I go to and struck up a little conversation with the guy next to me waiting about the naans. He then told me about the tandoor, and even got the owner of the restaurant to open the door and show me their tandoor. I had another Pakistani friend who showed me how to make lots of food very well.

I tend to have sort of a video game mentality to life, though. Where if someone wants to teach me something, I try to be all ears. Worst case scenario I waste my time, but I'm usually wasting it anyway. People will teach you lots of stuff, I've found, if you just listen to them. I think it's partially my different way of conversating with people, though. I tend to look at conversations not as emotional exchanges, but as exchanges of information. This is frustrating for social interaction, but good for learning stuff. One of my neighbors remarked "I can tell you're smart, you know why? Because you listen when I say stuff. My son, he just says 'I know, I know' and most of the time he doesn't."

Another name for Preppers is a Doomer. I suppose that's related to comments expressing the fact that the human race will consume itself (or resources) one way or another. I'm too poor to gather much in the way of supplies and too old to hold back marauders anyway. I don't know that I could point a gun with intent toward another person, so in the face of all that, I'm just trying to stay overweight in hopes of being a food source for the Strong.

You're thinking on too small a scale, and you think you can somehow cheat punctuated equilibrium.

There is no way to prepare for doomsday, not for the Dinosaurs, not for the Ediacarian Fauna, and not for us.

Just reproduce as much as possible (with as many people as possible) and you might get lucky and sire someone with the genes needed to survive whatever befalls the current fauna (doubt it'll be in our lifetimes, but you never know.)

I love it.

I am more of an "intellectual" prepper... I spend hours on end researching and looking through survivalist/prepper advice on what to stockpile, which firearms are the best, what you would need in a bugout bag, what to do in the event of a total collapse of civiliazation, etc... but I am not really a prepper in the traditional sense.

Sure, I have about a week's worth of supplies saved up should something intermediate happen (power outage or whatnot lasting no more than a week) but I have come to the realization that, being as I live in phoenix, the biggest obstacle to survival would be water. I have a decent water supply, but with the number of people here, it will only last about a week, and then we are screwed. In the event of a true collapse, phoenix would become a barren wasteland (nearly all water needs to be supplied via canal) and I do not see any possibility of surviving such a scenario. There is one lake in the area, and the water there is essentially toxic. it would be quickly used up by people flocking to it for a "reliable" water source...

and of course, freeways would be plugged up, leaving the only way out as a massively long hike through the desert while carrying everything with us... which is a recipe for a faster death.

I could survive a week comfortably, two to three weeks at most. Any longer than that and there is almost zero chance of survival around here, so no point in worrying about stocking up.