Asparval wrote:
You would need to work out the following to lend credence to you theory, although it is interesting:
How many died in office who were inaugurated in the years in between?
There was only one: Zachary Taylor, who took office in 1849 and died in 1850.
Asparval wrote:
Compare the study to a control group of say others in a similar type of office or perhaps to the presidents before the curse.
Of the 8 presidents before the curse, not a single one of them died in office.
1. George Washington (1789-1797)
2. John Adams (1797-1801)
3. Thomas Jefferson (1801-1809)
4. James Madison (1809-1817)
5. James Monroe (1817-1825)
6. John Q. Adams (1825-1829)
7. Andrew Jackson (1829-1837)
8. Martin Van Buren (1837-1841)
Of the 8 presidents supposedly affected by the curse, 7 of them died in office.
9.
William H. Harrison (1841)
16.
Abraham Lincoln (1861-1865)
20.
James Garfield (1881)
25.
William McKinley (1897-1901)
29.
Warren Harding (1921-1923)
32.
Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945)
35.
John F, Kennedy (1961-1963)
40. Ronald Reagan (1981-1989)
Of the other 25 presidents (excluding George W. Bush), only one died in office.
10. John Tyler (1841-1845)
11. James K. Polk (1845-1849)
12.
Zachary Taylor (1849-1850)
13. Millard Fillmore (1850-1853)
14. Franklin Pierce (1853-1857)
15. James Buchanan (1857-1861)
17. Andrew Johnson (1865-1869)
18. Ulysses S. Grant (1869-1877)
19. Rutherford B. Hayes (1877-1881)
21. Chester A. Arthur (1881-1885)
22/24. Grover Cleveland (1885-1889, 1893-1897)
23. Benjamin Harrison (1889-1893)
26. Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909)
27. William H. Taft (1909-1913)
28. Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921)
30. Calvin Coolidge (1923-1929)
31. Herbert Hoover (1929-1933)
33. Harry S. Truman (1945-1953)
34. Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961)
36. Lyndon Johnson (1963-1969)
37. Richard Nixon (1969-1974)
38. Gerald Ford (1974-1997)
39. Jimmy Carter (1977-1981)
41. George Bush (1989-1993)
42. Bill Clinton (1993-2001)
In summary, we have had
- 7 "cursed" presidents who died in office (1.56)
- 1 "cursed" president who did not die in office (6.44)
- 1 "uncursed" president who died in office (6.44)
- 32 "uncursed" presidents who did not die in office (26.56)
The numbers in parentheses are the expected numbers if the probability of dying in office were the same regardless of the curse.
The chi-squared test statistic is 29.254, with 1 df. The p-value for the independence test is 6.35e-8, which is less than any reasonable significance level. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis that death in office is independent of the curse.