The “Double Doubters” who are they, how will they vote?

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America is headed toward a presidential rerun. A dozen GOP challengers have yet to break Donald Trump’s grip on the primary electorate; meanwhile no viable threat to Joe Biden has emerged on the Democratic side. To the chagrin of most voters, Trump vs. Biden 2.0 is the most likely general election matchup at this point. The unique unpopularity of the frontrunners means a significant slice of the electorate will head to the polls disliking both their options. How these “double doubters”—a term coined by strategist Doug Sosnik—break will prove crucial come November 2024.

A new poll from AEI’s Survey Center on American Life (SCAL) helps to break down this essential bloc. While crosstab analysis is often limited by sample size, the survey’s pool of more than 5,000 registered voters allows for a deeper look at the respondents who dislike both the 45th and 46th presidents.

Nearly half of double doubter registered voters have a bachelor’s degree or higher, significantly outpacing the national average. Almost 55 percent identify as moderate and, mirroring the American public, conservatives outnumber liberals. When prompted to pick a party label, nearly half of double doubters picked Independent compared to 31 percent of registered voters. Perhaps unsurprisingly, among those who picked a party, double doubters are more Republican than Democratic.

A clear picture of this electorally vital group emerges: they are disproportionately young, white, moderate-to-conservative, and college educated. They are more likely to be from the Midwest than the South or Northeast. They think Biden was legitimately elected and support abortion rights, but also fear the Democratic Party’s leftward drift on certain cultural issues. These are voters in suburban Milwaukee, in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and in Delaware County, Ohio. And these are voters that will be crucial in the next presidential election.

Though a dislike of both frontrunners suggests political disaffection, 83 percent of double doubters say they “always or nearly always” vote. Even in a Biden-Trump rematch, most of these voters will hold their nose and head to the polls. Perhaps most significant, however, is that their vote choice drastically differs depending on the GOP nominee.

First, the usual crosstab caveats. Still 16 months from the general, polling is not nearly as predictive of the final outcome. Most voters simply have not tuned in to the presidential election yet, particularly those who are not hardcore partisans. But the delta between double doubters in the two SCAL general election matchups is nevertheless shocking.

Among registered voters, Biden leads Trump by seven points, but leads Ron DeSantis by less than a point. Among double doubters, the gap increases fivefold: Biden loses the group to DeSantis by a staggering 24.1 points, but bests Trump by 13.6 points—a shift of almost 38 points. Similar data from CNN’s Harry Enten supports this finding: Biden beats Trump by 7 points with those who have an unfavorable opinion of both men.

Whether these data indicate unique electoral strength for the DeSantis campaign is unclear. If a voter likes neither Biden or Trump, nearly anyone—including DeSantis—might provide a suitable alternative. Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Mike Pence could very well pull similarly strong numbers.

The findings are, however, a cautionary tale about of the electability of the Republican frontrunner. White, college-educated moderates appear likely to pick Joe Biden over Donald Trump, even if they do not have a favorable opinion of the incumbent—the same phenomenon that powered Democrats to surprising victories in 2022.