funeralxempire wrote:
techstepgenr8tion wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
Aspinator wrote:
In this interview Putin cited Poland as the cause of WWII because they didn't give in to Hitler's territorial demands.
Kids, this is what we call foreshadowing. WW3 will start when Poland refuses to give in to Putin's territorial demands.

IMHO he won't take Ukraine let alone Poland.
I agree that he's unlikely to take Ukraine, but I also believe if Ukraine fell and if NATO wasn't demonstrating a willingness to fight that Ukraine would just be the first step to further invasions.
We're incredibly unlikely to ever find out, that's the trouble.
He's a scumbag for sure. Is he Hitler though? No, in the quite literal sense he's not and even in the formative sense his big thing seems to be having been born during the starvation of a given city, having an older brother who'd died from that, and consequently he's got a fixation on resources and defensibility (there was the so-called Phd thesis he did which was largely plagiarized, possibly done for him, and it points at his primary concerns). I do think it's a fair point that if we really don't understand the guy's particular variety of nationalism or what he loses sleep over we won't understand whether he's expansionist or whether he's like China if they'd lost a part of their mainland and fought to get it back. Playing it safe of course means assuming that he would try to take Poland. The safest strategy with imperfect information vs. the actual truth - two different things.
The argument about everyone having the Hitler-Chamberlain frame is not that you don't safeguard against being Chamberlain, it's that you try to figure out what you're dealing with so you never make as many bad guesses as Chamberlain did. Particularly with a nuclear-armed country you don't want to make many wrong guesses at all because that can be deeply world-changing in ways that no one wants to see.
_________________
The loneliest part of life: it's not just that no one is on your cloud, few can even see your cloud.