Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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H5N1 is on the move. I came across a very detailed study of how it is transitioning through Europe.

Tracking the Threat: How a New H5N1 Virus Variant Took Hold Across Europe

A new scientific study published in Emerging Infectious Diseases has mapped the emergence and spread of a novel highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus genotype—EA-2023-DG—across Europe. Conducted by an international team of researchers led by the Avian Virology and Immunology Unit at Sciensano (Belgium) in collaboration with laboratories across 13 countries, the study reconstructs the reassortment origins of this virus and provides a detailed phylogeographic account of its transmission between 2023 and mid-2024.

Their findings not only underscore the dynamic nature of avian influenza virus evolution but also reinforce the critical importance of genomic surveillance in anticipating and mitigating zoonotic and agricultural threats.

The EA-2023-DG genotype was first identified in a wild swan in Finland in November 2023 and subsequently detected in poultry, captive birds, and a wild fox across 11 European countries. Genomic analysis revealed that this virus genotype emerged through a reassortment event in the southwestern Baltic Sea region—likely between July and August 2023.

Six of the virus’s eight gene segments were inherited from the dominant genotype EA-2021-AB. However, two polymerase segments (PB2 and PA) originated from low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses circulating in the region, highlighting ongoing genetic mixing among influenza viruses in wild bird populations.

Following its initial detection, EA-2023-DG was reported in Germany, Sweden, Poland, Belgium, England, France, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, Austria, and Finland. Germany reported the highest number of cases, including 13 poultry farms and several wildlife detections. The virus was found in multiple bird families—Phasianidae (chickens, turkeys), Anatidae (ducks, geese), Accipitridae (hawks), and others—as well as in a single wild red fox.

By June 2024, the virus had spread from the Baltic Sea south to Lyon, France, west to England, and east to Slovakia. Despite wide dispersal, core circulation remained concentrated in Germany, Sweden, and Poland.

The operators of a British Columbia ostrich flock that's facing a cull order after an avian flu outbreak are calling for independent testing of the birds to prevent their "unnecessary destruction."

Katie Pasitney, whose mother co-owns Universal Ostrich Farms in Edgewood, B.C., issued a statement on Monday, saying the nearly 400 ostriches are healthy and have shown no signs of illness for more than four months.

The statement says the flock poses no threat and should be tested for ongoing avian flu infections, saying the ostriches have acquired herd immunity to the virus and are a valuable scientific resource.

Source: B.C. ostrich farm calls for independent testing to prevent 'unnecessary destruction'

Another article makes the point that these ostriches may respond to H5N1 in a way similar to humans. After becoming infected they can build up an immunity to the disease.

In animals, much like in humans, influenza typically runs its course over a matter of days. Individuals are symptomatic for several days but do not shed live virus for months after the infection.

On a massive farm, the virus could transmit among the animals and persist on the farm for months. However, the B.C. ostrich farm is relatively small, and six months after being exposed/infected with H5N1, the remaining ostriches are no longer expected to be contagious. PCR testing could help detect if they are still shedding the virus.

The ostriches who survived prior H5N1 infection are likely to have some degree of immunity compared with a new group of ostriches.

Source: The Scientific and Ethical Case for Sparing the Ostriches

I came across an open letter from Sandy Alfonso from White Rock B.C.

LETTER: Stop ostrich cull before there's 'blood on our hands'

Animals and humans are no different in terms of recovery from a virus. We get sick and we recover and are no longer contagious. The 397 ostriches are not sick. Perhaps five months ago they were, but not any longer.

The teen who got avian flu in B.C. and recovered went to the farm to plead for the ostriches. No one killed her when she was sick, or after she recovered. (She was the first person in North America to get the very deadly form of H5N1 and survive.)

The cat's of out the bag, so to speak. Avian flu is here, and it will remain.

Around 70 humans in North America came down with the mild form of H5N1, but this girl survived the very deadly form of the disease. So if these ostriches and this special girl can survive the death plague posed by H5N1, perhaps we should look deeper and learn how it was done.

I was thinking about the next surge of H5N1 in the U.S. It will occur in September and October 2025 timeframe.

Birds are the primary spreader of bird flu and the outbreaks occur during the fall when birds fly south for the winter and then again during the spring when they return back. According to the Internet, this fall outbreak will most likely occur in September and October 2025.

"A New COVID Variant Is Here, And It's More Transmissible — Here Are The Signs And Symptoms"

In response to Double Retired post "A New COVID Variant Is Here, And It's More Transmissible — Here Are The Signs And Symptoms"

An article from India passed on the following information about NB.1.8.1

The variant, a sub-lineage of the Omicron family, was first detected in January 2025 and has now been found in 22 countries. The new Covid-19 variant NB.1.8.1 is spreading quickly across India, Asia, and the US. A global virus monitoring body has confirmed that vaccines remain effective against severe illness and hospitalisation.

In Short
--- NB.1.8.1 has been detected in 22 countries since January 2025
--- Active Covid-19 cases in India rise to 6,491 as of June 9
--- Hospital visits in Taiwan due to Covid symptoms increased by 78% in one week

In the United States, more than a dozen cases of NB.1.8.1 have been reported, initially detected through airport screenings in California, Washington, Virginia, and New York. The variant has since been found in Ohio, Rhode Island, and Hawaii.

Despite the rise in infections, experts say the pattern remains consistent with seasonal surges, and vaccines continue to provide strong protection against serious illness.

Source: Global Virus Network issues guidance on new Covid-19 variant, vaccine protection

Another article describes the symptoms of NB.1.8.1:

Common symptoms of the NB.1.8.1 variant include a severe sore throat, fatigue, mild cough, fever, muscle aches, and congestion; some patients have also reported gastrointestinal symptoms.

Source: What is behind the global spread of new Covid strain NB.1.8.1?

Well then it's a good idea to take vaccines seriously.

Ummm...

Does this count as taking vaccines seriously?!?!

A few weeks ago, I asked a medical doctor about what the medical community thinks of Jr. The doctor said that he thought that Jr had settled down a bit. I wonder what he thinks now.

The focus of this thread is the explosion of H5N1 and eventually H1N1 in humans. It is exploding across the bird and animal population and also some cases including very deadly forms of the disease has been occurring and growing and growing. About 50% of humans who experienced the deadly form have died thus far.

COVID has some similarities to H5N1 in that it is a transitory plague. Every time someone gets it and survives, they build up an immunity to that version of the plague and also some degree of protection to the next variant. But you can survive getting COVID by just protecting yourself. Early testing at the beginning of 2020 showed that it takes about 50 COVID cells in your body at a given time to come down with a deadly version of COVID. So a mild exposure actually builds an immunity to the disease. To this day, I never got COVID or rather I never allowed my body to store more then 50 COVID cells in my body at any given time. These cells can remain in your body for several days, so one had to know how to protect oneself. And that didn't take hiding away in your home. Actually most people became infected with COVID in their homes.

Back to the present threat. This disease has the potential of becoming 100 times more deadly than COVID. The pandemic of 1918 showed its fury. And it was so quick. Within 24 hours of showing symptoms you had passed the point of no return and would die within days. Unlike COVID, an H1N1 pandemic strikes the young and middle age. One day you seem healthy and the next day they are burying your body in an unmarked grave.

A few days ago, I wrote:

Birds are the primary spreader of bird flu and the outbreaks occur during the fall when birds fly south for the winter and then again during the spring when they return back. According to the Internet, this fall outbreak will most likely occur in September and October 2025.

But that is not the case for South America. Their fall and spring are opposite ours. So how is H5N1 in the southern hemisphere. Brazil is currently experiencing an H5N1 outbreak in wild birds (swans) and chickens.

The plague is very specifically caused by Yersinia pestis which isn't even a virus.

Neither influenza nor covid is the plague. They aren't even close.

It is difficult to take people seriously when they think that other diseases are the plague.

H5N1 and H1N1 are a transitory plague. They begin as a virus (which is very small in size) but as they evolve (moving from one species to another) they transition in size becoming a bacterium, an incredibly small bacterium.

In general, "Plague is a serious bacterial infection. There are five forms of plague: bubonic, pneumonic, septicemic, meningeal and pharyngeal."

Pulmonary edema is a condition in which too much fluid accumulates in the lungs, interfering with a person's ability to breathe normally. It causes shortness of breath and difficulty breathing. If you look back at the hospital patients dying of H1N1 in 1918, it is very obvious they were unable to breath. Analysis of their dead bodies showed their lungs were filled with liquids that blocked their ability to pull in oxygen. Pleural effusion, which some people call “water on the lungs,” is the buildup of excess fluid between the layers of the pleura outside your lungs. The pleura are thin membranes that line your lungs and the inside of your chest cavity.

According to Wikipedia, they described the signs and symptoms of the 1918 Pandemic.

The majority of the infected experienced only the typical flu symptoms of sore throat, headache, and fever, especially during the first wave. However, during the second wave, the disease was much more serious, often complicated by bacterial pneumonia, which was often the cause of death. This more serious type would cause heliotrope cyanosis to develop, whereby the skin would first develop two mahogany spots over the cheekbones which would then over a few hours color the entire face blue, followed by black coloration first in the extremities and then the limbs and the torso. Death would follow within hours or days due to the lungs being filled with fluids. Other signs and symptoms reported included spontaneous mouth and nosebleeds, miscarriages for pregnant women, a peculiar smell, teeth and hair falling out, delirium, dizziness, insomnia, loss of hearing or smell, and impaired vision. One observer wrote, "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred".

Source: Spanish flu

Viruses can turn into bacteria?

For what it's worth, all forms of the plague are all caused by Yersinia pestis. The difference is in how the they are acquired and/or what is infected.

Bubonic plague is acquired by being bitten by a flea infected by Yersinia pestis.

Pneumonic plague is acquired by breathing in Yersinia pestis into your lungs. If you get this, your chance of surviving is quite small. During the Black Death, the plague victim with the best chance of surviving was the one with bubonic plague. The other members of the household would typically get pneumonic plague and would usually all die.

Septicemic plague is usually acquired by being bitten by a flea infected with Yersinia pestis that leads to an infection of the blood by the Yersinia pestis. If untreated, the chances of surviving it are pretty much zero.

Normally, when you are speaking of the plague, you are speaking of either bubonic plague, pneumonic plague, or septicemic plague. Again, these are all caused by Yersinia pestis.

If you have bubonic plague, on rare occasions it may affect the lining of the brain, thus the meningeal plague.

Pharyngeal plague is a rare form of the plague caused by eating meat that is contaminated by Yersinia pestis.

There is NO possibility that a virus is somehow going to magically be transformed into Yersinia pestis. Not in the past. Not now. Not in the future. It just does not work that way.

It's not just a question fo size. Bacteria and viruses are very different things. It would likely be easier for a duck to mutate into a cat.

Perhaps you are confusing a secondary, opportunistic infection with the original infection caused by the influenza virus.

By the way, where I live the plague is something we need to be aware of. From time to time, a prairie dog colony may be infected by Yersinia pestis and start dying off. Some will survive and so over time the prairie dog town will grow back.

You severely undermine your overall credibility on this topic when you say nonsense like this.

Influenza A virus (Alphainfluenzavirus influenzae) is the cause of the flu, not a bacterium. The virus doesn't become a bacterium at any point through out it's lifecycle, as such a change is not possible.

A very large virus doesn't become a bacterium. For example, many nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses are larger than some bacteria, but they're still recognized as being viral in nature.

Based on this and a few earlier errors, I'm worrying that this thread is more speculative fan fiction than informative and scientifically accurate.