Iran U.S. Talks

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Iran's attempt to give up its weapons in exchange for development is extremely stupid.

New intelligence obtained by the United States suggests that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing multiple US officials familiar with the matter.

It was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision, CNN added, citing the officials, adding that there is "deep disagreement within the US government about the likelihood that Israel will ultimately act."

Any Israeli strike on Iran would be "a brazen break with President Donald Trump," the officials told CNN. They added that it could also risk triggering a broader regional war.

Whether and how Israel strikes will likely depend" on Jerusalem's views of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, CNN added.

However, another source told CNN that "the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months, and the prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.”

The concerns of an Israeli strike are based on public and private messaging from senior Israeli officials that they are considering a move, and from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements, multiple sources told CNN.
These military movements included moving air munitions and completing an air exercise, two sources added.

These could also, however, be Israel simply "trying to pressure Iran to abandon key tenets of its nuclear program by signaling the consequences if it doesn’t — underscoring the ever-shifting complexities the White House is navigating," CNN added.

Israel 'between a rock and a hard place'
Trump's desire to pursue diplomacy over striking Iran has put Israel "between a rock and a hard place," according to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the region, cited by CNN.

This has led Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to face pressure both to avoid a US-Iran deal that Israel "doesn't view as satisfactory, while also not alienating Trump, CNN added.

“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran,” Panikoff said, adding that he did not believe Netanyahu would be willing to risk fracturing Israel's US relationship by launching a strike without at least tacit US approval.

Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iran's nuclear program without US support, including midair refueling and bombs to penetrate facilities deep underground, according to a source familiar with the matter, cited by CNN.

However, Israel would be prepared to carry out military action on its own if the US were to negotiate a deal with Iran that Israel cannot accept, an Israeli source told CNN.

“I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal,’” said the other person familiar with US intelligence cited by CNN. “The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us … both publicly and privately.”

With Israel concerned that the Trump administration may cut a weak new nuclear deal with Iran, one way out of such a scenario could be a theoretical Mossad operation that kills the key Iranian official who ordered 400 ballistic missiles fired on Israel in 2024, think-tank sources conjectured to The Jerusalem Post in April.

There is a real danger that Trump could agree to a mediocre nuclear deal with Iran, multiple top Israeli sources have told the Post in April. If Trump does agree to such a deal, some of the sources are deeply concerned that the president may circumscribe the IDF’s current unique opportunity to strike the Islamic Republic.

Or maybe it's stupid for the US to trust Iran to uphold its side of such an agreement?

The Iranian government has just one ambition, which is nuclear annihilation of Israel. They'll never do anything to jeopardize that.

US officials are worried that Israel could decide to carry out strikes on Iran’s nuclear program without much warning, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.

The report said that US intelligence believes Israel could make the preparations to carry out an attack in as little as seven hours, which would leave the Americans little time to attempt to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change his mind.

The US intelligence officials reportedly doubt the efficacy of a unilateral strike by Israel, and Israeli officials are said to believe that the US would have no choice other than to assist, if Tehran were to strike back.

Israeli officials have told Washington that a strike could be carried out even if a nuclear agreement is reached between the US and Iran, the report said.

US President Donald Trump still wants to make a deal with the Iranians, the report confirmed.

The desire comes despite American and Iranian negotiators being at apparent loggerheads over the issue of uranium enrichment, with US officials insisting on its total elimination in Iran, while the Islamic Republic has called it a red line.

In an attempt to keep the negotiations alive, US envoy Steve Witkoff and mediating country Oman are “discussing creative options,” according to the Times report, including a joint venture between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and several other Arab countries, with some US involvement, to produce nuclear fuel, with the actual location of the enrichment as-yet undetermined.

Witkoff has also dropped his objections to an interim understanding laying out principles for a deal, the report said, with the Trump administration hoping that such a declaration would help hold off an Israeli strike.

This could be related to Trump’s statement Sunday that “something good” could be coming with respect to the talks in the “next two days,” the report noted.

Israel is said to be suspicious of any interim deal that would allow Iran to maintain its facilities for months or years with the negotiations ongoing.

If any declaration of principles is to satisfy Israel, as well as Iran hawks in the US Congress, it will probably have to require Iran to ship its highly enriched uranium out of its borders, or “down blend” it to a much lower level of enrichment, the Times said.

If so, that would allow Trump to claim he had, at least temporarily, removed the threat of an Iranian speed-run to a bomb.

Wednesday’s report came amid a flurry of accounts of heated disagreements between Trump and Netanyahu on Iran’s nuclear program.

The Times corroborated the reported tension, citing interviews with officials in the US, Europe, and Israel who have been involved in the debate between the two governments.

After Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump last month — when the US president, with the Israeli leader alongside him, made the shock announcement that nuclear talks with Iran would begin — the premier reportedly ordered national security officials to continue their plans for a strike on Iran, including for a potential operation without US support.

Since the meeting between the two leaders, Israel has been communicating to the US that it might strike on its own even if a deal is reached, according to the report.

Israel already has plans drawn up for such attacks, ranging from surgical strikes to days of bombardment on Iranian facilities, including some that are located in cities, the Times reported.

Israel’s talk of going it alone prompted Trump to make a phone call to Netanyahu, the Times reported, in which the premier did not deny ordering the preparations, and argued to Trump that Israel had a limited window to strike.

Trump acknowledged Iran’s weakness, but argued this gave the US leverage to make a deal, officials told the newspaper.

Last Friday, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad chief David Barnea met with Witkoff in Rome, on the sidelines of the US-Iran talks. On Monday, they traveled to Washington to meet with CIA Director John Ratcliffe.

Netanyahu’s office responded to the article, according to the Times, with a statement reading: “Fake news.”

US President Donald Trump confirmed on Wednesday that he had warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week not to take actions that could disrupt nuclear talks with Iran.
"I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we're very close to a solution now," Trump told reporters. "That could change at any moment."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and United States President Donald Trump held a 40-minute phone call on Monday evening, shortly after Iran announced that it would soon respond to Washington’s latest proposal for a nuclear deal.

Following the call, Netanyahu held a high-level security consultation focused on Iran.

In a sparse readout of the conversation, the Prime Minister’s Office said the two leaders discussed Washington’s ongoing nuclear talks with Tehran.

“President Trump told the Prime Minister that the United States has presented a reasonable proposal to Iran and is expected to receive its response in the coming days,” said the statement from Netanyahu’s office.

It added that Trump informed Netanyahu “that he plans to hold another round of talks with Iran over the weekend.”

The statement did not provide any details about what Netanyahu said during the call.

For his part, Trump told reporters at the White House that the conversation went “very well” and covered a variety of issues, including the ongoing nuclear talks, adding that US has a meeting with Iran on Thursday.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei later said the “next round of Iran–US indirect negotiations was being planned for next Sunday in Muscat,” according to a statement cited by Reuters.

Netanyahu stopped testifying earlier than scheduled in his corruption trial to hold the call with Trump, which came as Jerusalem and Washington wait for Hamas’s answer to a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, and as his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners are threatening to topple the government if a Haredi enlistment exemption bill is not passed.

PM said to tell top aides to meet with Witkoff
Netanyahu’s meeting after speaking with Trump included senior security officials, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Defense Minister Israel Katz, Shas leader Aryeh Deri and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, according to Hebrew media.

Channel 13 later reported that Netanyahu instructed Dermer and Mossad chief David Barnea to meet US special envoy Steve Witkoff before the next round of US-Iran nuclear talks.

At the White House, Trump told reporters that the US “is trying to make a deal [with Iran] so that there’s no destruction and death,” adding that the Iranians are “tough negotiators.”

Asked what’s blocking a deal, Trump said, “They’re just asking for things that you can’t do,” pointing to Tehran’s insistence on retaining its uranium-enrichment capability—something Trump said he won’t permit, even though the latest US proposal reportedly allows limited, low-level enrichment inside Iran for a time. “They don’t want to give up what they have to give up. You know what that is: They seek enrichment.”

“They have given us their thoughts on the deal, and I said it’s just not acceptable,” he added, without specifying whether Iran has submitted its response to the US nuclear deal proposal.

On Friday, Trump asserted that Iran would not be permitted to enrich uranium as part of an agreement. “They won’t be enriching. If they enrich, then we’re going to have to do it the other way,” he said, hinting at a military option if a deal does not pan out, while reiterating that he prefers a diplomatic solution.

Asked about the stalled hostage talks between Israel and Hamas, Trump said on Monday they were continuing “and Iran actually is involved,” without elaborating as to what he meant. Iran, a chief sponsor of Hamas and other anti-Israel terror groups in the region, to date has not been known to be a party to the talks.

“We’ll see what’s going to happen with Gaza. We want to get the hostages back,” Trump added.

”A historic window of opportunity”
The call with Trump came as Netanyahu has been meeting in recent days with Haredi members of his ruling coalition and other senior coalition figures, linking the current “opportunities and challenges” in Israel’s security situation with the intense political turmoil he faces, Channel 12 reported Monday evening.

We are in a dramatic period. There are extraordinary challenges on the table. This is a historic window of opportunity that will not return, and therefore, under no circumstances should the foundations of the government be shaken,” the network quoted the premier as telling some of the Knesset members during the meetings.

The report added that opposition figures are aware of the conversations, saying Opposition Leader Yair Lapid learned about them from MKs he met with to discuss the draft exemption law, and that other lawmakers reported hearing similar messages. The Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment on the report, the network said.

Iran said Monday that it will soon hand a counterproposal for a nuclear deal to the United States in response to a U.S. offer that Tehran deems “unacceptable,” while U.S. President Donald Trump said talks would continue.

Trump made clear that the two sides remained at odds over whether the country would be allowed to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil.

“They’re just asking for things that you can’t do. They don’t want to give up what they have to give up,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “They seek enrichment. We can’t have enrichment.”

Earlier, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was preparing a counteroffer to the U.S. proposal that was presented in late May. He said there was no detail about the timing of a sixth round of talks.

While Trump said the next round of talks would take place Thursday, a senior Iranian official and a U.S. official said Thursday was unlikely.

Following Trump’s remarks, Baghaei said “based on recent consultations, the next round of Iran–U.S. indirect negotiations is being planned for next Sunday in Muscat,” according to the ministry’s Telegram channel.

The U.S. official said the talks, led by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, could be Friday or Sunday, possibly in Oman or Oslo.

“The U.S. proposal is not acceptable to us. It was not the result of previous rounds of negotiations. We will present our own proposal to the other side via Oman after it is finalized. This proposal is reasonable, logical, and balanced,” Baghaei said.

“We must ensure before the lifting of sanctions that Iran will effectively benefit economically and that its banking and trade relations with other countries will return to normal.”

Reuters previously reported that Tehran was drafting a negative response to the U.S. proposal. An Iranian diplomat said the U.S. offer failed to resolve differences over uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the shipment abroad of Iran’s entire stockpile of highly enriched uranium and reliable steps to lift U.S. sanctions.

Last week, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the U.S. proposal as against Iran’s interests, pledging to continue enrichment on Iranian soil, which Western powers view as a potential pathway to building nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes

Iran says the West has turned a blind eye to Israel’s nuclear program even while pushing against Iran’s. Israel neither confirms nor denies that it has nuclear weapons.

Baghaei said sensitive Israeli documents, which Iran has previously promised to unveil, would demonstrate “that parties constantly questioning Iran’s peaceful nuclear program actively work to strengthen Israel’s military nuclear program.”

The negotiating parties should not allow Israel to disrupt diplomatic processes, he added.

Or maybe it's stupid for the US to trust Iran to uphold its side of such an agreement?

The Iranian government has just one ambition, which is nuclear annihilation of Israel. They'll never do anything to jeopardize that.

U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.

The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday, with the State Department ordering non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to "heightened regional tensions."

President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.

Mr. Trump spoke about Iran at an appearance at the Kennedy Center on Wednesday, telling reporters Americans were advised to leave the region "because it could be a dangerous place, and we'll see what happens." Mr. Trump also reiterated the U.S. did not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, saying: "We're not going to allow that."

Israeli officials and White House spokespeople declined to comment.

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites “could very well happen” but advised against it, saying the possibility of a deal was “fairly close” if Tehran compromises on its atomic ambitions in ongoing talks with the US.

Trump was speaking after multiple reports that Israel was planning to strike Iran in the coming days and after the US took measures to drawdown on non-crucial staff and family members from its diplomatic missions and military bases across the Middle East.

“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We’ll trade with them, we’ll do whatever is necessary.

Trump acknowledged that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was considering an Iran strike, adding that such an attack could spark a “massive conflict.”

On whether Israel could attack Iran, Trump said: “I don’t want to say imminent, but it looks like it’s something that could very well happen.”

Speaking about the chances of reaching a deal with Iran, Trump said that “a pretty good agreement” was possible, but the chances could become more distant if the Israelis attacked Iran.

“I don’t want them going in, because I think it would blow it,” said Trump, when asked about his discussions with Netanyahu. “Might help it actually, but it also could blow it.”

Trump again described himself as a man of peace and said he would prefer a negotiated settlement with Iran.

“I’d love to avoid the conflict. Iran’s going to have to negotiate a little bit tougher — meaning they’re going to have to give us some things that they’re not willing to give us right now,” he said.

Despite the saber rattling and threats, Trump’s comments came as his envoy to Israel, Mike Huckabee, told the Ynet news site that Israel was unlikely to attack without a green light from the White House.

Also putting a damper on predictions of an imminent outbreak of hostilities, the IDF Home Front Command clarified Thursday evening that there were no changes in its emergency guidelines to the public, “following the rumors in the media and on [social] networks” and that the country was not on high alert.

Meanwhile, Channel 13 reported that IDF chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has insisted to Netanyahu that US support is necessary to attack Iran. Channel 13, citing a source with knowledge of the conversation, said that Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar shared Zamir’s view.

Also Thursday, Trump’s Middle East point man Steve Witkoff confirmed that a sixth round of talks with Iran would go ahead on Sunday in Oman.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities, according to a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge.

Why it matters: With Israel preparing to strike Iran quickly if Witkoff's diplomacy fails this weekend, President Trump's envoy sounded the alarm about what would come next. Iran's retaliation could overwhelm Israel's defenses and cause heavy damage, he said.

Iran has also vowed to strike U.S. targets in the region in the event of an attack on its nuclear sites. The U.S. is in the process of withdrawing diplomats and military families who could be in harm's way.

State of play: Witkoff is preparing for a sixth round of nuclear talks with Iran on Sunday. It could be the last.

Israeli officials say the Israel Defense Forces are on high alert. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been waiting for a green light from Trump to make his move.

Behind the scenes: Last Thursday, Witkoff held a closed-door briefing on Iran with a group of Republican senators. Among them were Sens. Risch (R-Idaho), Graham (R-S.C.), Barasso (R-Wyo.), and Ricketts (R-Nebr.), the source with knowledge said.

Witkoff told the Senators that military strikes by Israel are on the table if no agreement is reached.

He then brought up Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. The U.S. is concerned Israel's air defenses would not be able to handle an Iranian response involving hundreds of missiles, the sources said.

Such an attack, Witkoff told the group, could cause massive casualties and damage.

Witkoff also raised concerns about Iran's ballistic missile arsenal during a speech in New York on Wednesday, calling it "as big of an existential threat" for Israel as Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Zoom in: According to U.S. intelligence estimates, Iran has 2,000 ballistic missiles with warheads that can carry 2,000 pounds of explosives or more, a U.S. official said. Israel is within range for many of these missiles.

On Wednesday, Iran's minister of defense claimed Iran developed a new ballistic missile with a 4,000-lb. warhead.

The U.S. official said that since the previous Iranian missile strike on Israel, in Oct. 2024, Iran has significantly increased production of ballistic missiles to around 50 per month.

The official said the Iranian goal is to produce more ballistic missiles than the number of missile defense interceptors Israel has.

State of play: Testifying Tuesday before the House Armed Services Committee, CENTCOM commander Gen. Erik Kurilla said an Israeli strike on Iran would expose U.S. forces in the Middle East to the threat of Iranian retaliation.

The U.S. is evacuating non-essential staff from its Baghdad embassy and family members of military personnel from several bases in the Gulf. The State Department imposed security restrictions Thursday on U.S. diplomats and their families in Israel.

The other side: Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said Thursday that Iran will not agree to stop enriching uranium, as Trump has insisted it must.

"If they destroy our (nuclear facilities) with a bomb, they will be destroyed. All these capabilities are in our minds, and therefore, whatever they do, we will rebuild," he said.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Gen. Hossein Salami said Thursday that Iran is ready for war and has already determined the targets it will attack.

He stressed Iran's response to any Israeli attack will be "more painful and more destructive" that the two massive missile strikes against Israel last year.

On Thursday, Iran also announced new military exercises it said would "focus on the movements of the enemy."

Between the lines: The fact that two previous Iranian missile attacks ended with limited damage and few casualties gave Israeli officials confidence they could deal with similar attacks in the future.

What to watch: Witkoff will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday in Oman to discuss Iran's response to the U.S. nuclear deal proposal.

The meeting could determine whether diplomatic efforts continue, or a military operation begins.
Israel's security cabinet will convene Thursday to discuss the crisis.

Witkoff spoke Wednesday with Netanyahu about the rising tensions, and will meet his top adviser Ron Dermer on Friday ahead of his trip to Oman, along with Mossad director David Barnea, according to an Israeli official.