33,000...

Post Reply New Topic

It is also worth pointing out that only so many people can come on at a time, due to the limitations of the servers. And, discounting trolls and their sockpuppets, we also have members that joined but never posted, or only posted a few times before becoming bored, we have spammers and fraudsters...and so on.

So what is the real count likely to be? I reckon maybe...2000 That is still healthy but the 33000 is a bit of a joke really. 2000 is a big healthy forum.

The number of users online is simply that, and really isn't a practical measurement of site activity. You'd need to have information like the number of unique hits per day and per month in order to get a more realistic figure of actual usage, in my opinion. I don't like anyone has said that there are 33,000 active and unique accounts, as we are aware of the various ways in which additional accounts are created. If you want to be negative, that's your decision; just don't assume that everyone wants to join you.


M.

Not being at all negative.

2000 Aspie members. Look at how that stacks up to any other Aspie site. 300-400 is a medium site of total registered members.

How does this place compare? Really big in comparison.

So 33000 IS a comical figure but that does in no way detract from the fact that this is the biggest Aspie site in the world. I don't think anyone can lay claim to it.

I reckon if we bravely cut the chaff from the wheat and are prepared to concede that huge discrepancies you will still get a site of huge member base and have no need to feel disappointed or inadequate. In fact that could give you a position of deserved pride. That is all I was saying. Don't know what you read into what I was saying.

I wasn't aware that it makes any claim anywhere of how many active members it has.

So what is the metric, the gold standard, that should be used to determine a reason to celebrate what WP is? Is it registered users? Valid users? Users who have posted? Users who have posted at least 5 times? Signed into the site during the past 12 months? I'm not sure where drawing the line in different places truly makes a difference... the counter to the left read "Members: 33,000" when I looked up, and it seemed like something positive to mention in lieu of the other conversations as of late. And besides - it's numerically satisfying to me (the number 3 - the value/digit, not the word - has a pleasant 'tone' to it, for lack of a better description). As for negatively, I interpreted your referring to it as a joke to be in a dismissive or negative fashion; if I'm incorrect, please let me know.


M.

Nah you were wrong.
Don't worry. As I say I think it is a vastly inflated figure.
That said there is a lot for forum members to be proud about if the figure were closer to unique members with say over 1 post each. I believe the number would drop substantially and still be something that people could be more than satisfied with. Either way this is a huge forum from any measurement and the premier Aspie forum.

Not the first time, won't be the last.

Ok, so let's play with numbers.

Current Total Membership (at the time of this post): 33,058
Total Members with < 2 posts: 18,024 (of those, Members with Zero Posts: 14,771)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remaining Membership: 15,034

So that removes approximately 55% of the total number of members. But let's go further - let us further presume that of that remaining 45% that an additional 20% of those accounts either duplicate accounts or prolific spammers. If that doesn't seem fair, please let me know, but it seems a reasonable figure considering I do not have that data in front of me.

80% of 15,034 = 12,027 unique members.

But wait! We can take this further still. WrongPlanet has been around for roughly 5.5 years, and for the sake of these rough numbers I think it is an acceptable figure. So let's figure the annual membership for the site:

12,027 members / 5.5 years = 2,186 members per year (with an odd extra member thrown in about every other year)

So now we've gotten to the 2,000 member figure that seems appropriate to you. Given that not all "legitimate" members (80% of >2 posts) are continually active, we can roughly figure how many members are left. Let's assume that for every year, 50% of the users from the year before cease to be active. That means, of the 2,186 that are assumed to be from the first year of operation, that only 1,093 are active one year later, 546 the following, then 273, 136, 68, and so on. And I'll even tack the half-year on as the current YTD, which should skew the number to an even smaller total.

1,093 (half year)
1,093 (first year, 50% of annual considered inactive)
546 (second year, 75% of annual considered inactive)
273 (third year, 88% of annual considered inactive)
136 (fourth year, 94% of annual considered inactive)
68 (fifth year, 97% of annual considered inactive)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
And the grand total is... 3,209 active members. (with the half-year placed when WP started, the number jumps to 4,268)

Is it accurate? Not 100%, but at least there is a starting framework to start discussing different ways to count members, and gives an approximation of how many might really be currently active members on the site. That it is around 10-15% of the total number of accounts seems pretty reasonable to be given the timeframe and subject matter.

That was actually an enjoyable exercise... always have enjoyed numbers and mathematics, even in such relatively mundane applications.


M.

Well more than double of my estimates and I honestly think 2000 is a bit of a monster forum.
That said I enjoying looking at analytical figures like that.

So 4000-5000 active posting members. What do you think? A lot less than 33000, but something to be proud of? You should be.

Any forum has far less active members than they have people who've filled in the registration forum. The figure is no more irrelevant than the same kind of figure on most forums (although admittedly some forums remove all the members who haven't ever posted every so often). Even so the number still testifies to the fact that WP is a large forum with a lot of active and passionate members and that is something to be proud of, even taking to account the unsavoury goings on that can happen from time to time with any large group whether it be an online forum or anything else. All in all I think this site is generally very well run and is a testament to the hard work of Alex, the "staff" and all of the members who post things that make WP an interesting and encouraging place to be a part of.

Why WP means to me topic

this is the only Asperger/Autism forum I have stuck with over the years--and i have joined a few in my time. The others just, well, do not cut it. The rest may appeal to some, but there is just something about WP that keeps me coming back.

That old Wrong magic!!

I preferred it when it was 32,000...
32,000 is a very beautiful number, because it's prime factorization can be written as 2x2x5x2x2x5x2x2x5x2x2
(if anybody needed proof of my aspieness, they just got it... )

I'm thinking it would be cool to be on and see when it hits 33,333.

It is included within my definition of 'aspie'. Especially since some of us have some very extreme aspie traits, while still not meeting the full AS criteria.

That's a rather pleasantly symmetrical factorization, there.


M.

I'm curious, are there any good estimates on the number of unique and active accounts? Sounds like something Lau might know...

Ah, just saw your guesstimation. May or may not be in the right ballpark, but the method you use leaves some relevant factors out- eg we can't assume rate of growth has been constant.