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Do you think the military is strong enough? What is the demographic in the area and in general for the army?
One thing I noticed from the last conflict is a number of Christian have changed allegiance from the last civil war. I suppose that is because they hope for stability, even if that mean some liberties been taken away?
Sorry, but you are asking questions that needs pages as answer. Try to wiki Lebanon, Lebanon civil war, Rafic Hariri (the assassination part),Cedar Revolution, March 14 Alliance, March 8 Alliance ,Hezbollah.
I don't think the army is strong enough.