I'm afraid you are wrong. By switching, your chance of a win goes up to 67%.
There is just one chance in three that you chose the right door to start with. Nothing changes that. By switching, BOTH the other scenarios turn into a win situation for you.
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Deal or no deal is rubbish. I watched it once, and was annoyed by the stupidity of the whole thing. Neither the contestants nor the hosts seem to have the slightest idea of what they are doing (just guessing, I think).
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"Striking up conversations with strangers is an autistic person's version of extreme sports."
Kamran Nazeer