instinct vs statistics

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Break it down in your own words. Dude, I am a math blonde.

Briefly, operations research has been a massive benefit to realistic decision making, and has even suggested solutions that didn't make sense and worked.

If I were not doing my MS in Electrical Engineering, I would do it in OR.

I actually thought OR was kind of a soporific.

'operations research' aka 'management science'

Thanks for that awesome link Chever.

Are you talking to me? I know what OR is. It is also a soporific. What you give is its essential properties, what I give, its accidental.

You are still talking over everyone's head Chever.

To know is to teach and you still won't break it down in your own words.

both gut and emotional reactions are instinctive reactions - they are, in other words, hard-wired into us. They are instincts that kept us alive for most of our hungry, violent tribal past. They often don't work in today's world because evolution can't keep up with the pace of change that the modern world has experienced.

This is not to say that our instincts are always wrong - just that they don't always fit our circumstances. Humans do not, for example, have an instinctive understanding that traveling at 60 mph is inherently dangerous. Many of us are so relaxed that we drive at 60mph whill talking on the phone, eating fast food, drinking coffee, daydreaming, etc.

As a teaching assistant, I'm not often accused of being unclear or overly verbose.

However, this book review might explain

http://www.hbs.edu/bhr/archives/bookrev ... cbride.pdf

Interesting article.

So called 'gut reactions' are complex and based on many factors, including emotions. Emotions and attitudes condition how our neural networks operate - it affects storage, recall, and processing. I think that a person's 'gut reaction' depends on personality - someone who is suspicious or cautious is more likely to react that way, while some one who is a big risk taker often has a gut reaction of "ok, lets give it a chance."

If anything, I think the article proves that people are not good at being rational in a formal way.

Another 'gut feeling' - people tend to lose their fondness for foods they eat right before getting seasick. From a survival standpoint, this Pavlovian recognition makes sense ... maybe those foods are what made you sick. Except we know that it was the motion - this example of a gut feeling is wrong.

Thanks for the article Chever.

Did anyone else read this besides Monty?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/28/scien ... ref=slogin

For me, I can honestly say that gut instinct is different from emotion. It's a physiological response arising within my gut. What is the name of the chemical that gets produced during this response? Someone here must know.

Gut instincts often go against my emotions. I can't tell you a time when it was wrong. Often I ignored it because of emotions and I didn't want to have to believe that negative information which only serves to help me. Statistics are purely intellectual and accurate yes. But, in dealing with people, the gut instinct still has the most merit for me.

The last time we had an earthquake my stomach was in knots. I was so nervous for 2 hours before we had an earthquake that measured around 7.
Also, when we had the big fires tear through my neighborhood, I couldn't sleep the night before. I had this sharp pain in my stomach.
Usually before I get bad news I'll get this sharp pain.

Didn't most of the famous inventors give credit to their hunches and often defied the consensus of the time?

It sounds like your 'gut response' is synonymous with intuition.

Intuition seems to derive more from the head. I don't have that refined as much as the gut instinct which always proves to be right.
It only warns me of something bad. If I ask myself a question and I get this chemical reaction in my stomach, I'll know the answer is the opposite of what I had hoped for.

It's interesting, but I think I'm getting off topic...

There are changes in the vibrations and even radio waves given off by rock formations when they slip towards breaking in an Earthquake - maybe you pick up on that? Other animals can too, often better than humans.

There is more serotonin in our guts than in our brains.

That still wouldn't explain how I got that sensation which was much more so, prior to the fires. It's not a cramp or indigestion, it really is a specific gut dropping feeling.

Here is something interesting. When I go on a roller coaster I get that same feeling, only it's mixed it with adrenaline and excitement. So I guess you can say that the gut reaction is produced during perceived danger. This would give you a faulty message. However, when you feel the instinct during circumstances where there is no perceived threat, then you can count on it more. Maybe one has to be honest with oneself and know thyself to be able rely on this.

The research that was done on this with the stock market and guessing may be different. This may be more intuition. I think there is a difference but have yet to find anyone doing experiments on it. Hunches shouldn't be just lumped in with gut instinct and intuition, in my opinion. There is probably some statistical evidence to support it.

Although, Einstein said he dreamed up the theory of relativity. Hmm...