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burningviolin
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25 Feb 2009, 6:10 pm

Dussel wrote:
burningviolin wrote:
Okay, it may have been a factor, but was it really the most important one? I would have thought the collapse of the sub-prime mortgages had a much greater effect. Out of interest, how would you rate the causes for this recession?


The collapse of this sub-prime mortgages were "only" in the region of some $100s bio. This would, if all other indicators were sound, would cause some disturbance for a few weeks and the initial actions of the central bank in Feb. 2008 would be quite sufficient. The collapse of this sub-prime mortgages were only the tipping point of a deeper underlying problem of assets in the books, assessed in their value by an asset-inflation, which did not have a counterweight in real goods on the market.


And this is caused by, among other things, attempting to finance foreign policy, is that right?

Thanks



Dussel
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25 Feb 2009, 6:30 pm

burningviolin wrote:
And this is caused by, among other things, attempting to finance foreign policy, is that right?

Thanks


It is not the only factor, but a very important one. The warning of Immanuel Kant of 1795 is still valid:

Quote:
4. "National Debts Shall Not Be Contracted with a View to the External Friction of States"

This expedient of seeking aid within or without the state is above suspicion when the purpose is domestic economy (e.g., the improvement of roads, new settlements, establishment of stores against unfruitful years, etc.). But as an opposing machine in the antagonism of powers, a credit system which grows beyond sight and which is yet a safe debt for the present requirements--because all the creditors do not require payment at one time--constitutes a dangerous money power. This ingenious invention of a commercial people [England] in this century is dangerous because it is a war treasure which exceeds the treasures of all other states; it cannot be exhausted except by default of taxes (which is inevitable), though it can be long delayed by the stimulus to trade which occurs through the reaction of credit on industry and commerce. This facility in making war, together with the inclination to do so on the part of rulers--an inclination which seems inborn in human nature--is thus a great hindrance to perpetual peace. Therefore, to forbid this credit system must be a preliminary article of perpetual peace all the more because it must eventually entangle many innocent states in the inevitable bankruptcy and openly harm them. They are therefore justified in allying themselves against such a state and its measures.


http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/kant/kant1.htm



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25 Feb 2009, 10:05 pm

Bill Clinton, the president in office before George W. Bush presided over the longest period of peace-time economic expansion in American history, which included a balanced budget and a reported federal surplus Based on Congressional accounting rules, at the end of his presidency Clinton reported a surplus of $559 billion.

Clinton engaged in no wars. So I would say Dussel is right. War has brought on the recession. The housing crisis could have been rescued without a big recession if the U. S. government wasn't in so much debt which grows each year as interest on it increases.

George W Bush's government failed not because of his flamboyant support for the free market but because of his hare-brained act first, think later jump into war. In principle he was right and so he can't be judged too harshly. The Taleban and Saddam Hussein aren't widely regarded highly. But his methods have been too costly in my opinion.

http://clinton4.nara.gov/textonly/WH/Work/040299.html

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/cpquery/? ... OC_627612&



Sand
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25 Feb 2009, 11:46 pm

Perambulator wrote:
Bill Clinton, the president in office before George W. Bush presided over the longest period of peace-time economic expansion in American history, which included a balanced budget and a reported federal surplus Based on Congressional accounting rules, at the end of his presidency Clinton reported a surplus of $559 billion.

Clinton engaged in no wars. So I would say Dussel is right. War has brought on the recession. The housing crisis could have been rescued without a big recession if the U. S. government wasn't in so much debt which grows each year as interest on it increases.

George W Bush's government failed not because of his flamboyant support for the free market but because of his hare-brained act first, think later jump into war. In principle he was right and so he can't be judged too harshly. The Taleban and Saddam Hussein aren't widely regarded highly. But his methods have been too costly in my opinion.

http://clinton4.nara.gov/textonly/WH/Work/040299.html

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/cpquery/? ... OC_627612&


Clinton was responsible for repealing the regulation of finance by the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prevented the wild corruption of the present financial scene. It was both the Republicans and the Democrats that are responsible for the current financial catastrophe.



Dussel
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26 Feb 2009, 2:38 am

Sand wrote:
It was both the Republicans and the Democrats that are responsible for the current financial catastrophe.


Both sides wanted to be seen as "though on terror" with spending enormous amounts of money - and both sides didn't want to present the US-taxpayer, aka voter, the real bill.



ruveyn
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26 Feb 2009, 2:57 am

Sand wrote:
Perambulator wrote:
Bill Clinton, the president in office before

Clinton was responsible for repealing the regulation of finance by the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prevented the wild corruption of the present financial scene. It was both the Republicans and the Democrats that are responsible for the current financial catastrophe.


Bingo! The errors of the Clinton administration give rise to the "dot com" pseudo prosperity and its later bust (the recession of 2001). However there is enough guilt and chicanery to go around to both parties. The Republicans encouraged, based on bad policies originated by the Democrats, a slew of corrupts of which the Enron scandal is typical. A pox and a plague on both their houses!

ruveyn



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26 Feb 2009, 9:23 am

Oddly enough, for a guy who didn't "fight any wars" more US troops died under Clintoon than Bush v.1 or Shrub.

Military Losses 1980 -- 2007

Whatever your politics, however you lean and however you feel about the Bush administration,
this report is interesting. As tragic as the loss of any member of the US Armed Forces is, consider the following statistics:

The annual fatalities, by any cause, of military members while actively serving in the armed forces from 1980 through 2006:

1980 -- 2,392 (Carter)

1981 -- 2,380 (Reagan)
1984 -- 1,999 (Reagan)
1988 -- 1,819 (Reagan)

1989 -- 1,636 (George H W)
1990 -- 1,508 (George H W)
1991 -- 1,787 (George H W)
1992 -- 1,293 (George H W)

1993 -- 1,213 (Clinton)
1994 -- 1,075 (Clinton)
1995 -- 2,465 (Clinton)
1996 -- 2,318 (Clinton)
1997 -- 817 (Clinton)
1998 -- 2,252 (Clinton)
1999 -- 1,984 (Clinton)
2000 -- 1,983 (Clinton)

2001 -- 890 (George W)
2002 -- 1,007 (George W)
2003 -- 1,410 (George W)
2004 -- 1,887 (George W)
2005 -- 919 (George W)
2006 -- 920 (George W)
2007 -- 899 (George W)

George W years (2001-2007): 7,932 deaths
Clinton years (1993-2000): 14,107 deaths - Almost TWICE as many.

Are you surprised when you look at these figures?
They indicate the loss from the two latest Middle East conflicts are less than the loss of
military personnel during Clinton's presidency when America wasn't even involved in a war --
unless you include Bosnia and Mogadishu, Somalia. (Remember "Blackhawk Down"?)

Even more surprising is that in 1980, during Carter's presidency, there were 2,392 US military fatalities!

These figures appear to indicate many members of our media and politicians pick and choose the information on which they report -- that they present only those "facts" that support their agenda.

These statistics are published by the Congressional Research Service and may be confirmed at:
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf

So, despite the rhetoric, the US Military Industrial Complex was happily grinding up people and money during the Clintoon years as well.


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ruveyn
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26 Feb 2009, 9:38 am

MrMisanthrope wrote:
Oddly enough, for a guy who didn't "fight any wars"

Even more surprising is that in 1980, during Carter's presidency, there were 2,392 US military fatalities!

These figures appear to indicate many members of our media and politicians pick and choose the information on which they report -- that they present only those "facts" that support their agenda.

These statistics are published by the Congressional Research Service and may be confirmed at:
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf

So, despite the rhetoric, the US Military Industrial Complex was happily grinding up people and money during the Clintoon years as well.


It will will continue for the foreseeable future. Even now Fearless Leader is gearing up for an extended war in Afghanistan.

Which brings to mind these lines by Rudyard Kipling:

When you lie wounded in Afghanistan's plains
And the women come out to cut off the remains
roll onto your gun and blow out your brains
and go to your God like a Soldier.

ruveyn



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26 Feb 2009, 8:09 pm

MrMisanthrope wrote:
George W years (2001-2007): 7,932 deaths
Clinton years (1993-2000): 14,107 deaths - Almost TWICE as many.

These statistics are published by the Congressional Research Service and may be confirmed at:
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf

Oddly enough, did you know that your citation says you're full of baloney?


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26 Feb 2009, 8:43 pm

No one would deny a world without war would be a good thing, however it would be the result of a golden age, not the cause of.

War is generally triggered by resources. Even when it doesn't appear to be, an overabundance of resources on all sides still would have broken the chain of events that started the war. Thereforth unless abundant food, energy, and living space is provided for every single human being, conflict will always arise.

Now these requirements are very difficult to accomplish, since they need to be achieved not only for a majority of the population but essentially for the entire population. This doesn't mean a government controlled economy, but it requires a situation where working a minimum wage job will earn you enough money to buy a nice car, your own house, plenty of energy (be it fuel or electricity), and enough food to stuff your face every single day (of course you might not want to out of health reasons). And if you hate your job that's okay because there's 10 places that will hire you on the spot on within a quarter mile of your current employer.

Now that situation needs to be replicated in every single nation on the entire planet. Including the 3rd world.

Energy could potentially be provided by new developments in power generation, imagine coating every building on the planet with ultra-efficient solar panels. Safe fusion reactors every few hundred miles and piezoelectric plates on the roads and sidewalks, absorbing all the energy of people moving around.

The food resource can be resolved by building farm towers in every single city. This would not only cause food production to greatly increase, but all of the transportation costs of food production would drop to zero.

Living space however is something that can't be indefinitely satisfied within the confines of the planet. The world's population would skyrocket in such an age of prosperity and eventually we'd actually run out of room on the surface of the earth. Any solution would only delay the inevitable, and that inevitability is that humans would have to colonize not only the solar system, but beyond. Of course by this time we are reaching several thousand years after the golden age began and by then technologies would exist in every school desk that would boggle the mind of Stephan Hawking.


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twoshots
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26 Feb 2009, 8:49 pm

Well, I'm going to go easy and only attack one part of that post.

The_Cucumber wrote:
Living space however is something that can't be indefinitely satisfied within the confines of the planet. The world's population would skyrocket in such an age of prosperity and eventually we'd actually run out of room on the surface of the earth.

Evidence please? Prosperous first world countries have SUB REPLACEMENT fertility rates. And the richer you are, the less babies you tend to have.


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MrMisanthrope
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26 Feb 2009, 9:06 pm

twoshots wrote:
MrMisanthrope wrote:
George W years (2001-2007): 7,932 deaths
Clinton years (1993-2000): 14,107 deaths - Almost TWICE as many.

These statistics are published by the Congressional Research Service and may be confirmed at:
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf

Oddly enough, did you know that your citation says you're full of baloney?


Honestly, I'm going to have to slap the person that cocentated the data... 'swhat happens when you give someone else a task and expect them to perform like I would... To me, Data is data. I don't tweak it. Too trusting I suppose.

Mea Culpa. Sorry.

Still, even using the correct numbers, (& FWIW the numbers are internally consistent beteen Tables 4 & 5, even when accounting for the inclusion of Reserve & Guard)

Bush v.1 = 6,223 (including Gulf I)
Clintoon = 7,500 (No direct conflicts)
Shrub = 8,792 (to Nov2007 - Gulf II & beyond :roll: )

Sooo... I admit to being mislead on Shrub v. Clintoon... I should have checked, but the sentiment is still correct in Clintoov v. Bush v.1. (and that is the period of history when I was involved with the military... so seeing that (A) was correct I assumed (B) was correct too. My bad.

Yes, More died under Clintoon's 8 year "peace" than Bush v.1's 4 years that included a military action... that is to be expected though with all annual accident averages being equal. Though it is interesting to note that even with Gulf II, the Bush v.2 death toll is not nearly as high as during Reagan and not significantly higher than Clinton...especially considering that it has been essentially in a constant state of warfare...

As Colbert would say... it still had "Truthiness"... :wink:


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I'm not Jesus. Stop punishing me for other people's sins.

True Liberty Expressed as Fiction: http://www.bigheadpress.com/tpbtgn