[IMPORTANT] Hamas launches foot assault against settlements.

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It has been about a week and a half since the “imminent invasion” has not happened.
Speculation and opinions=mine:
This indicates Israeli paralysis and division at the top levels.

The choices as has been discussed are no win. Invade and kill tens of thousands of innocent civilians or leave Hamas degraded but able to reconstitute. If it is the latter there won’t too many people willing to move back to their old homes. The whole south of Israel will be basically useless. That is probably why calls for a ceasefire will be ignored.

It has been speculated that the reason for not knowing about the attack is because most of the anti terrorism efforts have been centered on the West Bank due the settlers there who are represented by Knesset members in Netanyahu’s coalition. That is a good possibility but that does not explain why it took 8 to 10 hours for IDF to respond. The areas that were invaded are a 45 minute to 1 hour drive from the West Bank. This is very suggestive that Israel’s computer networks were compromised by malware and probably still are. That means the “unity” government composed of politicians who hate each other facing terrible choices have to decide based on guess work and what happened in the past.

With all due respect to Mona the comparing Israel post 10/7 with America post 9/11 has problems. 3,000 plus died on 9/11. For 10/7 the equivalent in America would be 52,000. Israel is a much much smaller country with a citizens army. Practically everybody knows someone who was affected by the attack and knows several people who have been called up.

That said there is Israeli opposition but they are family members of hostages who want the invasion delayed until the hostages are released. If followed this won’t work. As it turns out the hostages released were family members of the wife Martin Fletcher who was the award winning Tel Aviv correspondent for NBC news. A publicity coup for Hamas. No matter how much they bargain Hamas will not give all of the hostages back and lose that bargaining chip. What they will do is drag this out for months and months. If that happens the “startup nation” is damaged like hell because a lot of the employees up to senior management are on active duty.

As 10/7 fades the morale of Israel plummets. This could happen faster than you think. There has been unity, the internal divisions have been put aside but these troops are taking orders from politicians they do not like or trust. As time goes on world opinion will continue to coalesce against Israel. The Europeans will cave first but America is not reliable. They have made a big show of sending the carriers to say this time we won’t cut and run. But what credibility do they really have? The war will always be news but the election is going to take precedence and the way it is looking now election year will feature an ongoing government shutdown with no speaker. In that case the promised aide to Israel won’t be coming. And by the way it increasing looks like the presumptive nominee will be convicted. In Georgia they have three plea bargain deals and those people will be testifying against Trump. And he might be in jail in New York for repeated violations of a gag order.

Let’s discuss the north. Fighting is at low levels but escalating people have been killed and populations evacuated. The U.S. intercepted two rockets launched from Yemen supposedly aimed at Israel. Syria is reporting Damascus and Aleppo airports have been bombed by Israel. Israeli media is reporting that one of the members of the “unity” government Gallant is advocating a preemptive war against Hezbollah and maybe Iran itself.

The Israelis have no reason to believe that if Hezbollah invades they won’t act like Hamas. The Iron Dome has been very effective intercepting the vast majority of rockets from Hamas. Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets. including precision guided ones. If a few of them get through to the right places such as the Dinoma nuclear plant, or the Knesset. Israel could be partially or totally decapitated. The above does not take into consideration drones or chemical or biological weapons being put on these weapons.

The U.S. would probably become an fully active combatant at this point and there is the “Sampson Option” as deterrents. The Sampson Option means Israel using its nukes if they are convinced they are going down. It has recently been reported that during the Yom Kipper War Israel was prepared to use nukes if Syria had taken the Golan Heights and were advancing the short distance to the Mediterranean Sea cutting Israel in half.

Israeli right wingers have proposed nuking Gaza. That is suicide. The concussion from the blast would finish what Hamas started in the south. Tel Aviv is 40 miles from Gaza meaning it would be irradiated and probably Jerusalem also. Similar in the north.

Unless Holocaust 2.0 is pretty much definitely about to happen forget the Sampson Option.
Sans that the only possible nuclear target is Iran. If they do that they will be attacked by Iranian WMD’s and Israel will be country non grata.

Final Thoughts and Conclusions:
I am going to throw a bunch of percentages out. Take them with a huge grain of salt. They are just guesswork, so much unknown, so much yet to happen.

This post is in response to two main things. Less lately here but a lot of unrealistic expectations from people who as mentioned elsewhere are looking at the mideast through “Western” lenses. A lot of Israeli commenters who otherwise who are realistic about the mess they are but still expect Israel to come out of this because they always have. Jews are still here despite the Holocaust, when they first became a country with a amateur military they survived an attack by 21 countries, Yom Kipper War etc. A similar assumption because we got out of bad situations before so we can do it again is affecting too many Americans.

The chances of Holocaust 2.0 probably 5 percent. Deterrence both military and economic, people waking up before the ultimate etc.

Israel coming out of this a shell of what they were on 10/6, 50 percent or more. There are so many ways this can go south including dithering. They way they look at the moment is key influence on my judgement.

The world economy being seriously f****d up by a regional war or worse 25 to 40 percent.

I am not going to guess final causalities.

Obviously this post is Israel centric from a person who does live in Israel. A lot to be wrong about a lot to learn. Hopefully a starting point in that process.

Thank you for reading.

Correction on my last post. I do not live in Israel and never have.

A real sticky wicket...Israel a puppet state of the West ..i think wants Palestine As a puppet state of Israel ....
And it never happened and am pretty sure , it never will , As long as the Arab countries are involved...
And so the tensions and War will go on ....and on ..and on .. Israeli excuses and propaganda ,for the more War mongering governmental members in their government will not yeild, i feel. So humans will die ..All for the benefit of Governments and Perhaps Israels version of Gentrifying Palestine . It is ridiculous.. The Hamas Leaders and Israels leaders being proponents of War. Should be made to be front line fighters in this entire campaign of terror.. Along
with all the different Corporate leaders , that are making money off of everybodies elses deaths .In that entire region.
I need to see headlines about this stuff for instance : That the president of Raytheon or General Dynamics , has just led a charge into the Arab occupied territories in the middle East..Despite feirce fighting ( that might raise their stock value),, in the stock market?.

From today: