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psychohist
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21 May 2010, 8:59 pm

Orwell wrote:
Iraq had a very large, capable military, and they were much more experienced in warfare than the North Koreans are (Saddam had spent a decade fighting the Ayatollah, and then he fought us in the Gulf War). We decimated Iraq's military essentially as soon as we showed up. If our goal is to win a war, there is no doubt about whether we can or not.

Iraq's military was pooly disciplined and poorly led, not to mention beaten down by ten years of sanctions and "no fly" enforcement. Iraq was also ideal terrain for the American military - lots of space without many features. Finally, the U.S. had no major defensive missions. Despite all that, the military campaign required lots of involvement by the marines and the army, with the nonmechanized infantry of the marines doing the heavy lifting.

I question whether North Korea would be quite as much of a walkover. Our first mission would have to be defending Seoul, and that would limit our offensive options. I don't think the war would last years, but I do think it would be very bloody for both sides - though the South Koreans would probably bear the brunt of the damage on our side.

I believe North Korea has nuclear weapons that, while they won't reach the U.S., will reach China and Japan as well as South Korea. They've tested two plutonium bombs, one successfully, and I'd be surprised if they didn't have more in reserve.



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21 May 2010, 9:03 pm

Jacoby wrote:
Kim won't last much longer and the regime would collapse if we could ever get China to enforce tough sanctions. They're not much an existential threat I think if left alone.

Kim's second son is probably ready to take over effectively.

Last time North Korea was on the brink of starvation, it wasn't China that rescued them, it was the U.S.



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23 May 2010, 7:38 am

Orwell wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
Because all that super-expensive technology allowed the US to completely conquer Afghanistan AND Iraq, Somalia, Vietnam and a hundred other places?

We conquered Afghanistan and Iraq in a couple weeks apiece. Iraq had a very large, capable military, and they were much more experienced in warfare than the North Koreans are (Saddam had spent a decade fighting the Ayatollah, and then he fought us in the Gulf War). We decimated Iraq's military essentially as soon as we showed up. If our goal is to win a war, there is no doubt about whether we can or not. America has as much military strength as (perhaps even more than) the rest of the world put together. Any one nation, especially one like North Korea, would simply collapse before the advance of American forces. Now, if we wanted to remain and occupy North Korea, that is a different story. Occupations are harder than wars, as we have seen over the past 8 years in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, I think once N. Korea has been soundly defeated militarily, and their command structure has been destroyed, the South Koreans can finish the task of reunification.


Interesting. Where did you get the idea that the Iraqi military was "capable" exactly? "Large" yes, "capable" hardly. And your military maths are wrong and a bit daft. America does not have a larger military strength than the rest of the world put together at all...America "wins" wars by simply declaring they have won them, which is not the same as actually WINNING them.


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23 May 2010, 7:44 am

Awesomelyglorious wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
Because all that super-expensive technology allowed the US to completely conquer Afghanistan AND Iraq, Somalia, Vietnam and a hundred other places? The very reason that America is failing to complete campaigns is BECAUSE they are fighting against people who HAVE to rely on the poor bloody infantry. Its the same problem that the Russians had.. a vastly superior technology base with complete air superiority and they STILL couldn't defeat the PBI. Throughout military history people who rely on superior technology have lost battles and wars against people relying on low-tech gear and a LOT of cannonfodder. The British in the Sudan and Afghanistan were "superior" in technology and firepower and took a lot of batterings in the field from poorly-equipped tribesman. The Italians invaded Ethiopia with what they believed to be a technologically superior force with superior air-power and STILL took a kicking from poorly equipped infantry. The Wermacht deployed some of the most advanced materiel a generation before everyone else and STILL got spanked by a LOT of infantry and mass-produced farm equipment. (The T-34 had inspired design, but was still minimal on the advanced technology. The Sherman tank was a blazing death-trap but it still beat the Tiger despite all the bells and whistles.The Panther eventually came with night-vision and still got beaten.) The first battle for Korea saw a technologically superior allied force steamrollered by infantry. (and in fairness saw motivated and small infantry formations beat off numerically superior forces several times.) Even the oft-paraded example of a successful "air war", Serbia, is more of a myth than anything else. (KFOR or Kosovo Force, which effectively peace-keeps, is a GROUND-based force.)


We *DID* conquer Afghanistan and Iraq. You're conflating holding an area and conquering it. America's problem is holding land, which is a much more difficult question than any question of conventional forces, as it isn't a matter of infantry or any other clearcut military force for that matter.

The question being asked is more about conventional warfare as well, given how the person is saying "front on", as an unconventional war, is by definition not front on anyway.

Even further, technological superiority means more and more as time goes on and as technologies become more powerful.

I see a lot of assertions of facts, but I don't see where you are proving this will be the deciding factor. It still seems clear to me that a strategy relying heavily on pounding North Korean troops to death from afar would be very successful and would tend to thin their numbers to a great extent, particularly if this is used to cut supply lines and other similar things. Ground troops are weak if they have to be afraid of standing in the open, if they are grossly undersupplied, and so on and so forth. This isn't to say "South Korea will never need any ground forces", but rather the number of ground forces South Korea has will not likely have to be anywhere similar to the number that North Korea has in order to hold ground and win the conflict.

Quote:
Tanks (no matter how modern) can still fall foul of determined infantry in a built-up area. Effectively invisible stealth-bombers cannot hold ground. Cruise missiles and remote drones cannot enter tunnel complexes. A carrier battle-group can't guard vital infrastructure. It is foolish and hubris to underestimate the capabilities of ground-pounders, and insane to assume that so many millions of fanatically indoctrinated footsoldiers would be "irrelevant" in open conflict. Its also rather insulting to all of those footsoldiers who have died doing things no amount of posh computers can do.

Ok, but the issue is that

Ok? So determined infantry can hold up tanks. Good for them. Bombers cannot hold ground? Not exactly, their task is to destroy major build-ups of troops and to stop supplies from being sent. Tunnel complexes cannot be entered by drones. True, but tunnels cannot reasonably hold that many soldiers, and bunkers can be busted.

Is it hubris to underestimate the capabilities of so many armed men? Well, that'd be assuming your argument. Is it insane to believe that troops don't matter when one side has tactical superiority? Well, no, tactical superiority is worth a *lot*, and it is better to have tactical superiority over a big army any day. Even further, an open conflict wouldn't be the kind of conflict fought. They might try guerrilla tactics, and developed nations will use push-button tactics. Do I think this is insulting? No, because an argument, if it is correct, isn't an insult, and if it is wrong, is an error. That being said, infantry is probably technically replaceable by advanced enough computers of some sort(probably requiring technology unavailable today). The real issue is just cost.


Where did I say I was proving that it would be a deciding factor? I'm just pointing out that your assertion that ground troops are "irrelevant" is a load of rubbish. Clearly you have little grasp of military tactics, strategy or reality. Tunnels cannot hold "that many soldiers"? You should probably study some of the tricks pulled by the Vietnamese or the Japanese for an idea of how many men you CAN hide in tunnels, bunkers etc. and how hard they are to dig out again.


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23 May 2010, 12:16 pm

Macbeth wrote:
Where did I say I was proving that it would be a deciding factor? I'm just pointing out that your assertion that ground troops are "irrelevant" is a load of rubbish. Clearly you have little grasp of military tactics, strategy or reality. Tunnels cannot hold "that many soldiers"? You should probably study some of the tricks pulled by the Vietnamese or the Japanese for an idea of how many men you CAN hide in tunnels, bunkers etc. and how hard they are to dig out again.

Well, what I mean by "irrelevant" is more like "irrelevant to the outcome of the war". Obviously more men means more munition used, but that's not really what is relevant to the conversation on whether South Korea would win the war.

Are you saying that tunnels can hold 11 million soldiers? That's what I mean by "that many". The question to me is about 11 million soldiers being that relevant. Guerrilla tactics don't need/use nearly as many men due to the need to keep men and their supplies hidden. Mostly, my response is to the poster who posted that number seeming to assume that North Korean troop numbers are going to be the relevant factor in a conventional war against major military power.



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23 May 2010, 12:27 pm

Are there still no theories that the United States conspired to sink the ship, using a device that appeared convincingly to be North Korean?



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23 May 2010, 1:24 pm

Macbeth wrote:
Interesting. Where did you get the idea that the Iraqi military was "capable" exactly? "Large" yes, "capable" hardly.

Ask the Iranians if the Iraqi military was capable.

Quote:
And your military maths are wrong and a bit daft. America does not have a larger military strength than the rest of the world put together at all...

America's military spending is close to the amount spent by the rest of the world combined.

Quote:
America "wins" wars by simply declaring they have won them, which is not the same as actually WINNING them.

We haven't been in an all-out war for a while, but any military force that opposed us has very quickly been annihilated. I don't know what you're even trying to say with this pointless assertion.


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23 May 2010, 1:41 pm

Orwell wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
Interesting. Where did you get the idea that the Iraqi military was "capable" exactly? "Large" yes, "capable" hardly.

Ask the Iranians if the Iraqi military was capable.

Quote:
And your military maths are wrong and a bit daft. America does not have a larger military strength than the rest of the world put together at all...

America's military spending is close to the amount spent by the rest of the world combined.

Quote:
America "wins" wars by simply declaring they have won them, which is not the same as actually WINNING them.

We haven't been in an all-out war for a while, but any military force that opposed us has very quickly been annihilated. I don't know what you're even trying to say with this pointless assertion.


The Iranian military is hardly noted for its elite status, and as both sides in that conflict failed to achieve their goals, its not a great example of Iraqi power. Twice in a row the Iraqi military simply gave up rather than engage coalition forces, whilst the Iraqi airforce went hell-for-leather for the border rather than get in a dog fight. No, the Iraqi military was in no way capable.

Cost does not mean that the US is equal to the rest of the worlds military put together. There are numerous factors, training, technology, doctrine, and so on, but the fact that the US pays a lot for its military does not mean it is equal to the combined forces of the rest of the world. On reasoning like that, it could just be that the US has the most expensive army in the world. Simple things like the fact that Night Vision is standard issue will quickly bump up the cost, never mind the huge expense incurred by things like an F-35. Similarly, the cost of arrogance must add a fair few dollars to the running total.

As for the "declaration of war-winning", do you not remember Bush on his aircraft carrier claiming that the war was "won"? Just a touch pre-emptive considering the continuing bodycount.

For the record, North an South Korea are already AT war, and have been for decades. The lack of shooting is merely part of the terms for the ongoing truce.


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23 May 2010, 1:47 pm

Macbeth wrote:
As for the "declaration of war-winning", do you not remember Bush on his aircraft carrier claiming that the war was "won"? Just a touch pre-emptive considering the continuing bodycount.

Well, we had won the war. We invaded Iraq and easily overthrew Saddam Hussein. The major failure was in the subsequent occupation, and if you'd read almost any of the comments on this thread you would have noted that occupying a country is much different than winning a war against it.


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23 May 2010, 1:52 pm

Orwell wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
As for the "declaration of war-winning", do you not remember Bush on his aircraft carrier claiming that the war was "won"? Just a touch pre-emptive considering the continuing bodycount.

Well, we had won the war. We invaded Iraq and easily overthrew Saddam Hussein. The major failure was in the subsequent occupation, and if you'd read almost any of the comments on this thread you would have noted that occupying a country is much different than winning a war against it.


On old story. Win the battle, lose the war. Win the war, lose the peace.

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23 May 2010, 2:15 pm

Orwell wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
As for the "declaration of war-winning", do you not remember Bush on his aircraft carrier claiming that the war was "won"? Just a touch pre-emptive considering the continuing bodycount.

Well, we had won the war. We invaded Iraq and easily overthrew Saddam Hussein. The major failure was in the subsequent occupation, and if you'd read almost any of the comments on this thread you would have noted that occupying a country is much different than winning a war against it.


Treating the two as distinct events being a good reason why the "peace" was lost...Neither event exists in a vacuum. Decisions made in war-time have a direct effect on peace-time. Decisions such as when you are no longer fighting "a war" but instead administering an occupation effect decisions like how large your forces have to be, what their supply situation might be, and what popular support you might gain from both the local populace and your own nation, even the opinion of the world at large, and history itself. There are legal implications involved as well: Under the Geneva Conventions the "winner" must release prisoners-of-war and halt operations targeting specific leaders. Noticeably, Bush used semantics to actually avoid legally declaring the war was over specifically to AVOID having to quit such activities. Perhaps also to avoid people recalling that the US never legally DECLARED the war in the first place. However, American war crimes are off-topic.

Likewise, battle-planning in wartime is often heavily dictated by what may occur in the following peace (the Cold War as it occurred being the product of military activities before the cessation of hostilities with Germany, for example.)

Point is, Bush declared victory in a war that was never legally a war, apparently as a propaganda trick, and military activity continues up to the present day, along with a substantial price-tag in lives and considerable expenditure of war materials in combat activity. America might have decided the war was "won" but it seems nobody informed the enemy.


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23 May 2010, 2:52 pm

Orwell wrote:
Quanta wrote:
The thing with North Korea, is that they have millions of soilders. They would walk all over the South. If an all out war where to occur, who knows what could happen !

They are poorly armed, with outdated technology, and an oppressed army does not make for willing soldiers. The South is our ally, and we would defend them. North Korea has no chance at standing up against American military might.

This is one of the few places where you will see me take a hawkish stance. Europe in WWII, Korea in 1950, Kuwait in 1990, and now once against Korea in 2010. We must defend our allies against dictatorial enemies.


I think this longing for "Korean Reunification" is insane and ivory-tower utopianism at its worst. And I'll even concede three points to you:

- US-backed South Korean forces pulverize the North Korean central command
- Russia does not aid the North
- China does not aid the North

Well, South Korea won't pulverize the North without a fair bit of loss on the Demilitarzied Zone and the northern portions of South Korea. I'd be surprised if the North doesn't strike a few South Korea towns with missles while the South is slaughtering them.

Another point is that North Koreans may (we have no real idea about what the social psychology of the average North Korean is due to the closed nature of that society) worship the leader intensely. Even given their cultural inexperience with guerellia resistance, are you telling me there'd be no groups of people who took to arms in the resulting anarchy once central command was vaporized? The Iraqi resistance was started by demoralized and defeated former Iraqi soldiers, keep that in mind. Are you saying the Korean People's Army would be any different?

At the South-North border the war or post-war occupation would be particularly bloody. And given the dismantlement of the hierarchy, the death of the upper-echelons of the Korean Worker's Party, with South Korean soldiers occupying much of North Korea, some lone loon or set of loons won't order a nuclear strike? Are you saying no hardliner would be particularly apocalyptic in such a momemnt, perhaps planning to annihalate the entire Pennisula in a situation so dismal to their aspirations?

And, in my mind, the populace would substantially change during the chaotic transitional period. South Korea would have one hell of a time integrating these people into their political system and people are always demoralized and defiant after defeat (social history is chalk full of examples). I'd suspect a huge a amont of violence against South Korean troops as they occupied the North.

This idea is frankly inane.



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23 May 2010, 3:05 pm

Let's not forget the costs of reunification. Even peaceful reunification would be pricey, I can't imagine what martial reunification would due to South Korea's economy in a time of global recession.

Peter Beck wrote:
More than a dozen reports by governments, academics and investment banks in recent years have attempted to estimate the cost of Korean unification. At the low end, the Rand Corporation estimates $50 billion. But that assumes only a doubling of Northern incomes from current levels, which would leave incomes in the North at less than 10% of the South.

At the high end, Credit Suisse estimated last year that unification would cost $1.5 trillion, but with North Korean incomes rising to only 60% of those in the South. I estimate that raising Northern incomes to 80% of Southern levels—which would likely be a political necessity—would cost anywhere from $2 trillion to $5 trillion, spread out over 30 years. That would work out to at least $40,000 per capita if distributed solely among South Koreans.

Who would foot such a bill? China is the greatest supporter of the current regime in Pyongyang, with trade, investment and economic assistance worth $3 billion a year. Even if that flow continues, it's only a fraction of the $67 billion a year needed to equal $2 trillion over 30 years. Japan is willing to pay $10 billion in reparations for having colonized the North in the 20th century, but that too would barely make a dent.


http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/cos ... nification



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23 May 2010, 3:10 pm

While we're all speculating about the boons of trying to conquer a country we know next to nothing about, perhaps a little knowledge on the actual incident is in order.

Quote:
Left entirely unanswered by the inquiry panel's report, which was released by the South Korean president's office: why the volatile and antisocial regime of North Korea's ailing "Dear Leader," Kim Jong-il, would have wanted to fire a torpedo at one of its neighbor's ships—a highly provocative move, which by almost any definition, could be considered an act of war. U.S. national-security officials acknowledge that North Korea is one of the most opaque intelligence targets in the world and that very little indeed is known about the inner workings of its leadership, including the erratic thought processes of its seemingly weakened strongman. Two U.S. officials, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, said that American agencies have no real hard information on what might have prompted North Korean to launch the attack.

However, the officials indicated that one theory that is growing in popularity among U.S. experts is that the March torpedo attack, which North Korea has vehemently denied, might have been some kind of belated tit-for-tat response to an incident last November in which South Korea allegedly fired on—and damaged—a North Korean Navy vessel.


http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/declassi ... -ship.aspx



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23 May 2010, 3:23 pm

NYTs seems to think Kim Jong-Il was personally authorized the attack and was planned as a response to the previous scuffle as a way to legitimize to succession of his son to take over as leader.



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23 May 2010, 3:30 pm

Jacoby wrote:
NYTs seems to think Kim Jong-Il was personally authorized the attack and was planned as a response to the previous scuffle as a way to legitimize to succession of his son to take over as leader.


I think that the NYTs is as in the dark as use hypothesizers are.

From the Newsweek article I posted.

Quote:
Officials declined to speculate as to whether such a retaliatory act would have had to have been authorized at the highest level of the North Korean government—presumably by Kim Jong-il himself, assuming he is healthy enough to still be in charge—or whether it is conceivable that a military commander at a lower level could have taken it upon himself to pursue vengeance.


This demonstrates that even now there's a possibility of "rogue" commanders. If Orwell's plan of destroying the upper-party command was realized, who is to say such rogue operatives wouldn't get more ambitious (i.e. nuclear pushing)?

And it looks like I'm not the only one forecasting a gloomy scenario.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T37Jym0gX2s[/youtube]