The Issues at the 2014 US Midterm Elections

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GGPViper
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13 Sep 2014, 1:41 am

The US Midterm elections are coming up soon, and Pew Research just did a poll on the most salient issues among voters (n=2,002, error margin is +/- 2.5 percent in total sample):

ImageImageImageImage

Pew also provides an excellent overview in a single figure of the demographic differences between (likely) Republican and Democrat voters:

Image

Some bullet points

  • Given the expected differences in expected voter turnout, the Republicans are likely to have an electoral advantage over Democrats in 2014, being 12-15 percentage points more likely to vote.
  • However, Dispite the short-term Republican advantage, demographic changes favor the Democrats in the long run. This is evident by the higher support for Democrats among younger voters and (especially) non-white voters.
  • Surprisingly, the Republicans only hold a very narrow lead among the highest-earning (+$75,000) voters of +4 percentage points, and a larger lead in the $30,000 - $ 74,999 category.
  • Despite having attracted considerable media attention, issues likely birth control, abortion and gay marriage will likely not be deciding factors in the 2014 Midterm Elections. Instead, issues like economy, health care and terrorism are likely to be the most salient issues.
Source:
http://www.people-press.org/2014/09/12/ ... r-in-2014/

Please discuss.


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13 Sep 2014, 4:17 am

As a non-American, I'd just like to point out two interesting discrepancies:
- According to people's statements, issues like gay marriage, abortion are not the most important. Still, religion is the best predictor of voting preference, better than economic status.
- The democrats are very strong among post-grads, while richer people are more often republican; even though education and income tends to correlate. Maybe that's why the rich are less republican than the middle category.


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LoveNotHate
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13 Sep 2014, 12:00 pm

GGPViper wrote:
This is evident by the higher support for Democrats among younger voters and (especially) non-white voters.


Sure, they are counting 'Hispanic white' people as non-white people. Doing so makes those components meaningless.

However, I disagree with the conclusions. I don't believe "demographic changes" will mean Democrats are gaining support in the long run, perhaps in the short run though. Younger voters who don't pay taxes would love Democrats, however, once they have to pay 40-50% of their income in taxes, then the Republican often broken promise of lower taxes may appeal to them. Also we saw with the other Pew Research that millions of Hispanics are changing their identification to white.



sonofghandi
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15 Sep 2014, 8:29 am

LoveNotHate wrote:
GGPViper wrote:
This is evident by the higher support for Democrats among younger voters and (especially) non-white voters.


Sure, they are counting 'Hispanic white' people as non-white people. Doing so makes those components meaningless.

However, I disagree with the conclusions. I don't believe "demographic changes" will mean Democrats are gaining support in the long run, perhaps in the short run though. Younger voters who don't pay taxes would love Democrats, however, once they have to pay 40-50% of their income in taxes, then the Republican often broken promise of lower taxes may appeal to them. Also we saw with the other Pew Research that millions of Hispanics are changing their identification to white.


The thing is that the younger demographic is becoming more and more socially liberal, and social conservatism is the Republican go-to battle cry, alienating an entire generation of up and coming voters. That being said, the Republicans will likely be able to hang on for quite some time, as their expertise in fear and anger tactics drive their base to the polls at much higher rates.


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Humanaut
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15 Sep 2014, 12:02 pm

sonofghandi wrote:
The thing is that the younger demographic is becoming more and more socially liberal, and social conservatism is the Republican go-to battle cry, alienating an entire generation of up and coming voters.

That's a myth.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoSlRf1NtGw[/youtube]



sonofghandi
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15 Sep 2014, 12:49 pm

Humanaut wrote:
sonofghandi wrote:
The thing is that the younger demographic is becoming more and more socially liberal, and social conservatism is the Republican go-to battle cry, alienating an entire generation of up and coming voters.

That's a myth.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoSlRf1NtGw[/youtube]


If you break it down into the indvidual issues, the younger generations are vastly more liberal on social issues. Don't get me wrong, they are losing faith in both political parties, but when Republicans focus the vast majority of their campaign on social conservatism, it will not go well for them.

And I don't know if you meant to be sarcastic and I just missed it, but that video is from The Onion.


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15 Sep 2014, 1:01 pm

sonofghandi wrote:
The thing is that the younger demographic is becoming more and more socially liberal, and social conservatism is the Republican go-to battle cry, alienating an entire generation of up and coming voters. That being said, the Republicans will likely be able to hang on for quite some time, as their expertise in fear and anger tactics drive their base to the polls at much higher rates.


Ok. Also, Democrats have an ace up their sleeve.

Poor people generally vote Democrat, because Democrats promise to take money away from people who have more. So by continual immigration of poor people, or by impoverishing native citizens, then the Democrat base grows.

Impoverished America = Democrats win

"According to CNN?s national exit polling, the lowest income bracket, those making under $30,000 a year, voted 56 percent Democrat compared to 41 percent Republican. This gap closes in the next income bracket, between $30,000 and $50,000, in which voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent". - See more at: http://www.spotlightonpoverty.org/OutOf ... 1awjq.dpuf



sonofghandi
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15 Sep 2014, 1:10 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
Impoverished America = Democrats win


^You may want to let some of the die-hard "give the rich more tax breaks and ignore everyone because anything else is communism" Republicans know. They haven't quite figured it out yet.

The only thing the Democrats really have going for them is that they aren't quite as despised and that the majority Republican older generation is starting to die off.

But it all goes in cycles. Eventually the Republicans will get a huge slap in the face and do an about face, marching straight back to moderate territory, and the Democrats will likely flee way too far to the left in response, alienating the moderates once again.

I think at this point, it is whichever party first gets it through their thick heads that people have smart phones and know how to use Google will come out ahead. One thing I've been noticing a lot lately is that many of the younger people starting work here will bust out the smart phone the second someone says something that sounds a little fishy and look it up.


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15 Sep 2014, 1:18 pm

sonofghandi wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
Impoverished America = Democrats win


^You may want to let some of the die-hard "give the rich more tax breaks and ignore everyone because anything else is communism" Republicans know. They haven't quite figured it out yet.


Not only that. The Republicans are the ones who have previously granted amnesty for "undocumented people" and now Republicans think president Obama is this mastermind with a plan to destroy them with the latest amnesty.



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15 Sep 2014, 1:23 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
sonofghandi wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
Impoverished America = Democrats win


^You may want to let some of the die-hard "give the rich more tax breaks and ignore everyone because anything else is communism" Republicans know. They haven't quite figured it out yet.


Not only that. The Republicans are the ones who have previously granted amnesty for "undocumented people" and now Republicans think president Obama is this mastermind with a plan to destroy them with the latest amnesty.

I agree with the rest.


Both parties swing back and forth on all the issues (although it isn't all of them at once). Even a few short decades ago, the Republicans were pushing hard for reform that was almost identical to present day Obamacare and the Democrats did nothing but scream about how it was a big business handout. Many (on both sides) are still sitting in the same DC seats, pretending like they haven't done an about face.


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15 Sep 2014, 2:01 pm

sonofghandi wrote:
If you break it down into the indvidual issues, the younger generations are vastly more liberal on social issues.

Youth segments have always been relatively more liberal.

Quote:
I don't know if you meant to be sarcastic and I just missed it, but that video is from The Onion.

I rank traditional outlets below satire.



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15 Sep 2014, 3:59 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
sonofghandi wrote:
The thing is that the younger demographic is becoming more and more socially liberal, and social conservatism is the Republican go-to battle cry, alienating an entire generation of up and coming voters. That being said, the Republicans will likely be able to hang on for quite some time, as their expertise in fear and anger tactics drive their base to the polls at much higher rates.


Ok. Also, Democrats have an ace up their sleeve.

Poor people generally vote Democrat, because Democrats promise to take money away from people who have more. So by continual immigration of poor people, or by impoverishing native citizens, then the Democrat base grows.

Impoverished America = Democrats win


Yeah, that's pretty much the way it is which is why the left has such disdain for personal financial growth, entrepreneurialism, and big business (any business, really). Keep 'em poor and angry and keep their vote.


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15 Sep 2014, 9:07 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
sonofghandi wrote:
The thing is that the younger demographic is becoming more and more socially liberal, and social conservatism is the Republican go-to battle cry, alienating an entire generation of up and coming voters. That being said, the Republicans will likely be able to hang on for quite some time, as their expertise in fear and anger tactics drive their base to the polls at much higher rates.


Ok. Also, Democrats have an ace up their sleeve.

Poor people generally vote Democrat, because Democrats promise to take money away from people who have more. So by continual immigration of poor people, or by impoverishing native citizens, then the Democrat base grows.

Impoverished America = Democrats win

"According to CNN?s national exit polling, the lowest income bracket, those making under $30,000 a year, voted 56 percent Democrat compared to 41 percent Republican. This gap closes in the next income bracket, between $30,000 and $50,000, in which voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent". - See more at: http://www.spotlightonpoverty.org/OutOf ... 1awjq.dpuf


they say they will but never do it. they help the rich just as much as republicans, the rich line the pockets of both dems and repubs.



sonofghandi
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16 Sep 2014, 9:59 am

sly279 wrote:
they help the rich just as much as republicans, the rich line the pockets of both dems and repubs.


^qft


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16 Sep 2014, 1:45 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
sonofghandi wrote:
The thing is that the younger demographic is becoming more and more socially liberal, and social conservatism is the Republican go-to battle cry, alienating an entire generation of up and coming voters. That being said, the Republicans will likely be able to hang on for quite some time, as their expertise in fear and anger tactics drive their base to the polls at much higher rates.


Ok. Also, Democrats have an ace up their sleeve.

Poor people generally vote Democrat, because Democrats promise to take money away from people who have more. So by continual immigration of poor people, or by impoverishing native citizens, then the Democrat base grows.

Impoverished America = Democrats win

"According to CNN?s national exit polling, the lowest income bracket, those making under $30,000 a year, voted 56 percent Democrat compared to 41 percent Republican. This gap closes in the next income bracket, between $30,000 and $50,000, in which voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent". - See more at: http://www.spotlightonpoverty.org/OutOf ... 1awjq.dpuf


Being my limited income makes me poor and I do vote I'd have to say I do not trust the democrats anymore than I trust the republicans...both of them have the same goal, and it doesn't seem to be serving the people. Also yes taxes take away some money people with more have to fund public services the poor might need....so is it really so horrible to support people who can afford it paying taxes. I myself think taxation needs to be fair and with representation, do not agree with ridiculously high taxation rates.


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