Kentucky Derby this Saturday

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Joined: 28 Feb 2005
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05 May 2005, 3:41 pm

I have been to the other two Triple Crown Races but never the Kentucky Derby. This year, I will be in Kentucky on Derby day but too far from the race to go see it.

It looks like the favorite, Bellamy Road, got a favorable post. He starts from sixteen, where his trainer wants him. Such a post is not good when there is a short run to the first turn but in the Derby, the horses go 5/16 of a mile before they hit the first turn. The outside post lets the jockey see most of the field while looking toward the rail and pick his spot in plenty of time.

Bellamy Road is running a lot better ( last win by 17.5 lengths ) for his owner, George Steinbrenner, than his baseball team, the Yankees is playing. My only concern about this horse is his experience. Only two races this year and five total. But OTOH, that probably means his best is still ahead. I will be at the Belmont again in June. My high school has a reunion there every year.

Jerry Newport

Feste-Fenris
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05 May 2005, 4:15 pm

TheWhale
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06 May 2005, 7:26 am

Feste-Fenris wrote:

Did you know Jerry that the horses in modern horse-racing are on LESS drugs than today's steroid riddled athletes...

Seriously... I heard in school that it's an animal welfare violation to give a horse steroids when it isn't sick or wounded... even when a horse is injured it is given less steroids than a human athlete...

Jerry: True at the major horsetracks but there is more abuse of this at other tracks. The old track at Tijuana was notorious for its drugged horses.

A horse weighs 0.5 to 1.5 metric tonnes (approximately) while a human athlete (a big one like a football player) weighs 0.2 metric tonnes...

Jerry: Overestimate. Not many football players weigh that much. I have never heard of a horse that heavy either.

And a human being is given more steroids than you are legally allowed to give a horse... insane...

There are certainly too many steriods in human sports.

Jerry

alex
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06 May 2005, 7:40 am

The first time I bet (in math class, we were doing statistics unit) I won because I bet on Charismatic the winner. Or I think that was his name. It was fun though!

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TheWhale
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06 May 2005, 8:43 pm

alex wrote:

The first time I bet (in math class, we were doing statistics unit) I won because I bet on Charismatic the winner. Or I think that was his name. It was fun though!

Charimatic won the Derby in 1999. I saw him win the Preakness. I went with two friends from the local ASA chapter who had passes to the infield; the CBS media tent. I watched the race from a spot just before the first turn, standing next to some sheik who had a horse in the race.

Talk about a giveaway: The crowd let the Kentucky Derby winner go off at 8 to one! I put fifty across on Charismatic and won back over 800 bucks. Unbelievable luck. Charismatic made a great move on the homestretch and won easilly.

On the way home to L.A., I went to use the airplane john and Chris Antley, the jockey of Charismatic, was heading to the same place. I let him in, saying, "you paid my way home!"

Jerry

PS: Just got into my hotel room here in Covington, KY. The whole state has Derby fever.

Mockingbird
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16 May 2005, 2:42 pm

I know this is a bit late, but Yay for Giacamo! I was cheering for him all the way because his owner is the M of A&M records, and A&M is the Secular Company Amy Grant has always been signed with, and also, A&M's Christian division, Word Records, owns Amy Grant's christan music, Sixpence None the Richer and George Huff. Most of my favorite music comes from A&M/Word. Back on topic, all looks good for the Preakness...I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a triple crown winner this year!!

TheWhale
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21 May 2005, 6:26 am

I think Giacomo is the best bet at 6/1. He has less ground to use, making a stretch move, and the turns at Pimlico favor front-runners. BUT there are six fewer horses to beat this time.

I may skip the Belmont if Giacomo loses. I bought my ticket with frequent flyer miles and if I don't use them for that weekend, I just pay 100 dollars to use the ticket any time within the next year.

If I was at Pimlico, I would bet place and show on Giacomo and watch the odds on Afleet Alex. I think he is not worth it at 5/2.

Jerry Newport

TheWhale
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25 May 2005, 3:12 pm

Giacomo third and Afleet Alex won. The Belmont may favor Giacomo; 5/16 of a mile to make a run for one thing. The turns at Belmont are wide and easy. It all depends on who is in shape to run.

I hope Afleet Alex is okay after that remarkable reconvery in the homestretch of the Preakness. He could have been so full of adrenaline that he ran like he did while hurt.

Jerry Newport

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