The South Carolina Primary for the GOP and the Nevada Caucus for the Democrats happens tonight, these are the unpredictable votes to happen so far I think as it really can go either way for in Nevada and the stakes are so incredibly high on the GOP side in SC.
By most account Hillary and Bernie are neck and neck in Nevada, it's not a caucus you can really accurately poll but there is a big battle going on for union voters with the union leadership for the most part standing behind Hillary but that's not the case for the rank and file. I saw the other day the AFL-CIO will be withholding their endorsement which is a pretty huge win for Bernie. Obviously there is this huge effort on both their behalves to attract minority voters, it's honestly gotten pretty ridiculous the desperation on both sides which NEED these voters. They're the only thing keeping Hillary alive, they're the only thing preventing Bernie from being a viable If Bernie can win in Nevada, it will be very interesting to see how much momentum he can pick up before SC which is only 3 day later. If Bernie won Nevada and then pulled an upset in South Carolina, the race would be over I think. I wonder how much being an old white Jew plays into Bernie's lack of support among minorities, I think it's a question that needs to be asked given how I don't see why they should have such an allegiance to the Clinton's who did what for them in the 90s? I am also wondering if Bernie will have an easier time attracting Hispanic voters given their more open inclination towards socialism. A lot of questions, should be very interesting.
The Republicans all have their knives out against each other, SC as it always seems to be is a bloodbath of negative politics and dirty tricks. Trump according to the polls seems to be firmly in the lead with Cruz and Rubio battling each other for 2nd place, Bush has just flopped even with his brother and Lindsay Graham campaigning with him and is battling Ben Carson for last place. Kasich isn't even contesting SC and is polling better than Bush in most polls. Jeb really needs to finish in the top 3 or I think the pressure will be on him to drop out, I think he'll do it before getting embarrassed in Florida but he has the money to stay around as long as he wants. There is this idea that the GOP wants all these candidates running so no one candidate will get the majority of delegates at the convention on the first ballot and then the party establishment will pick the candidate they wanted all along.
It's really important to everyone; Trump will look really bad if he doesn't win, Cruz really needs a strong showing to remain viable so to stop the race from turning into the establishment versus Trump, the dunce Rubio seems to be the guy the party insiders are all rallying around so he NEEDS to be the first establishment candidate and preferably 2nd instead of 3rd. If Jeb or Kasich finish ahead of Rubio then his campaign will go into a tailspin. Kasich is focusing his efforts in Michigan right now. Carson need to not finish last and have a showing that will keep him the race, I think it's looking like time he drops out too which will be really interesting to see who he endorses if anyone.
20 Feb 2016, 12:06 pm
