How many Trump supporters can be persuaded?

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Shahunshah
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07 Oct 2017, 5:16 am

I have been researching data to find out how much Trump supporters may change their minds and vote for the other candidate in the future. These are the historical trends of how much voters changed their minds and voted for the other candidate.

Hoover lost an estimated 26% of his voters from 1928 to 1932.

From 1976 to 1980 around 13% of Jimmy Carter voters changed their minds.

From 1979 to 1983 around 5% of Thatcher voters changed their minds and decided not to vote for their candidate.

From 1988 to 1992 around 20% of Bush voters changed their minds and did not vote for him.

From 1992 to 1997 around 32% of voters for John Major turned against him.

From 2008 to 2012 around 5% of Obama voters changed their mind and did not vote for the president the second time around.

From 2008 to 2013 around 43% of Berlusconi voters changed their minds and voted against their candidate.

From the looks it seems as though only around 15% roughly of Trump voters will ever change their minds. And around 30% if the circumstances prove extreme. To me that is said, two thirds of all Trump voters almost appear to be closed off now. Is their a way that can be changed?



kraftiekortie
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07 Oct 2017, 6:46 am

Hopefully.....



nurseangela
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07 Oct 2017, 7:31 am

Even if I do change my mind - and it would be because Trump didn't follow through with what he promised, I would never (I MEAN NEVER) vote Democrat.

On a side note, I would probably vote for Trump even if he didn't do everything he promised because I can't stand the Left. Actually, when I think about how bad I've been treated by some of them, I am sure come hell or high water or even if I was on my deathbed, I'd be sure to have somebody cart my ass to the voting box!


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Chichikov
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07 Oct 2017, 7:37 am

Isn't democracy terrible! It's so frustrating. People should have the same opinions that I do and if they don't they should somehow be forced to change. It's about time we gave fascism a chance, huh?



LoveNotHate
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07 Oct 2017, 8:17 am

Marc Cuban says he may run for president as a Democrat.

He's a billionaire, and tv celebrity like Trump.

He could be seen as an "atypical politician", that can bring "real change", and will "drain the swamp".
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/03/politics/ ... index.html

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EzraS
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07 Oct 2017, 8:23 am

I think less trying so hard to turn people against Trump with all the melodrama, might help. If it's not too late.



kraftiekortie
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07 Oct 2017, 8:37 am

I wouldn't want Cuban, either. He seems like a loose cannon, like Trump.

If we're not careful, Trump will BECOME the swamp...or maybe like mold: virtually impossible to get rid of.

The true test will be the 2018 Congressional elections.



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07 Oct 2017, 10:52 am

The 2016 election turned on under 100,000 votes in a few states.

In 2020 The Democrat candidate will not likely be Hillary so that candidate should win. Also the The Healthcare system the former Obamacare is likely to collapse and that would occur under Trump’s watch.


But:
I can see the Dems nominating another horrible candidate maybe even Hillary as she is acting as if she is still interested.

The Democratc Party is going further and further to the left and the hysterical voices get the media attention. This is still a mostly centrist country, it swings center right, center left but never truly radical.

If the economy is still doing well for most people and Trump does not get us into a war that bogs down or causes catastrophic damage to the homeland I can envision him bieng reelected. Like it or not he is getting normalized. I noticed the “calm before the storm” remarks recieved a relatively muted reaction. By 2020 if there is no disaster everybody will be pretty used to his behavoirs.


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Drake
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07 Oct 2017, 10:56 am

Large numbers I would say if the opponent is any good. Problem is, can the democrats produce someone like that? Actually, it probably wouldn't matter even if it was 0%. Voter turnout was very low. There are lots of people who didn't vote who can swing it.

The question's too early though really. Trump needs to complete his term so we can know how his performance has been evaluated by his support.



auntblabby
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15 Oct 2017, 2:58 am

one doesn't have to be the captain of the ship to know it is sinking. his performance stinks to high heaven. anybody paying attention cannot avoid seeing this.



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15 Oct 2017, 9:52 am

auntblabby wrote:
one doesn't have to be the captain of the ship to know it is sinking. his performance stinks to high heaven. anybody paying attention cannot avoid seeing this.


It depends on how you define performance. If you wanted disruption to the point of endangering the system you got what you wanted. If you want a Christian Fundamentalist court system you are getting what you want.


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15 Oct 2017, 2:45 pm

Chichikov wrote:
Isn't democracy terrible! It's so frustrating. People should have the same opinions that I do and if they don't they should somehow be forced to change. It's about time we gave fascism a chance, huh?


I really hope you're joking about that.


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auntblabby
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15 Oct 2017, 8:02 pm

^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.



Shahunshah
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15 Oct 2017, 8:34 pm

Chichikov wrote:
Isn't democracy terrible! It's so frustrating. People should have the same opinions that I do and if they don't they should somehow be forced to change. It's about time we gave fascism a chance, huh?

You know, one thing I don't like?

Caricatures. If things are to improve in the worldwide, we have got to stop talking down at people and alienating them, whether they be left wing, conservative etc. Words like SJWs and Rednecks are all the same, they shut down discussions and create bubbles.



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15 Oct 2017, 10:22 pm

auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


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