Post midterm elections scenarios/predictions

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ASPartOfMe
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05 Sep 2018, 7:45 pm

Scenario 1 - Blue Wave
This is the scenario that seems most likely at the moment. We need to define blue wave. It means more then the Dems gaining control of the House. In a normal midterm the opposition party gains an average of 23 seats. The dems need to gain 23 seats to take control. Even in a true wave it is going to be difficult for the Dems to take control of the Senate considering they are defending 24 seats compared to the Republicans 9

All the indicators indicate a Blue wave. In the generic polling of which party are you going to vote for the Meta polls have the Dems up by around 11. There was a scare as the gap had narrowed to around 5 but now the trend is the other way. More important then polling is actual results. In various special elections the Dems have been outperforming what they did in 2016 often by double didgets. The Democrats are out fundraising the Republicans

But polls and special elections here and there are not the same as a few hundred seperate elections

Scenario 2 - Normal mid term - Dems take control of the house but barely, the Senate stays the same or repubs gain a seat

Scenario 3 - Utter Dem/progressive incompetence Republicans remain in control of everything


In a blue wave there are two main issues. For the Republicans is do they finally abandon Trump. Doubt it for reasons I will discuss below.. For the Dems they will have two main options. Try and remove Trump via impeachment. Investigate him like crazy and wait for the voters to throw him out in 2020. The reasoning for the second option is that actually getting the 69 votes in the Senate to convict and remove him is not very likely. Trump’s support in his party is second highest to George Bush after 9/11. If the base has not abandoned him by now I do not see why anything any investigation can come up with is going to change this. In order to be reelected republicans can’t go against 90 percent of the voters in thier party.

While the investigate and let Trump continue to wound himself option is arguably the smartest a blue wave will be a mandate to remove Trump by or almost by any means neccassary. The Dems go against this at thier own peril. This would probably be acceptable in scenario 2.

If scenario 3 happens a Russian Trump conspiracy will be blamed and I think there would will be a voilent reaction a lot more then we had with Trump’s election. If the the blue wave happens a deep state media conspiracy will be blamed. If widespread Trumpian violence is to occur it would not occur until Trump is removed one way or another. I am not totally convinced of a more than scattered right wing reaction. How many 60 year olds go out and riot?


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Spooky_Mulder
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05 Sep 2018, 7:53 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
How many 60 year olds go out and riot?


60 year olds aren't the problem. Young cosplay Alt-Reich cry babies who march through towns with loser flags while carrying tiki torches, hitting people with cars, and causing a spike in hates crimes - are.

Make no mistake, the second Trump gets out there is going to be a lot of violence the likes of which will make Charlottesville look like child's play (this isn't because of the normal right-wing base or religious base, rather KKK/Neo-Nazis/Far Right). This is because they saw the opportunity of their big white supremacist takeover coming to light - to only have it be grabbed away by what they believe is the deep state (Ruby Ridge, Waco, ring a bell? These groups being in paranoid militias afraid of deep states isn't new - Oklahoma City Bombing, etc) - it is gonna be rough.

However, I have honest to God faith that the FBI is already aware of this and is already taking all the necessary precautions. After all, the far right is responsible for the most terrorist attacks statistically within the United States - these groups are showing the same paranoia patterns which have led to disasters in the past (beliefs in "deep states"), their growing violence is already noticeable in FBI hate crime statistics, and some extremists view Trump as a beckoning for the "race war" they longed for. All of that isn't going to lead to kumbaiya. As said though, I have faith in the FBI.



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05 Sep 2018, 8:06 pm

We'll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgement of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again

The change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that's all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they are flown in the last war

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
No, no!

I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
Oh I know that the hypnotized never lie
Do ya?

There's nothing in the streets
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by the bye
And a parting on the left
Is now a parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss


-- "We Won't Get Fooled Again", by The Who (c) 1971


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techstepgenr8tion
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05 Sep 2018, 8:52 pm

Lots of headlines likely to occur between then and now so I suppose it depends who has more bombshells in their pockets.

That said, I really don't think blue wave or overwhelming conservative victory are likely. Dems, whether they want it or not, suffer for anything that goes on at the far left as much as Republicans do for the far right. My guess is if there are Dem nominees they'll be much more center-left.


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05 Sep 2018, 9:06 pm

I won't predict the midterms because I was wrong about the 2016 elections. I predicted early on that Clinton was predestined to win and that the "fix" was in.


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05 Sep 2018, 9:16 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
...We need to define blue wave....

Indeed. Potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates will be watching (and influencing) congressional races like a fortune teller looks into a crystal ball. As such, the congressional Democrats will be expecting some "get-out-the-vote" moderates like former vice presidents, state governors and cabinet members. But the caveat is that name-brand progressives could strangle any possibility of a congressional majority in either or both houses, making it more difficult to win back the White House.

No, Democrats have an uphill battle for the Congress, and only a slim chance of the White House. They will need to do what they loathe, and swallow hard to distance themselves from Obama. His extremism gave birth to the current administration's extremism. Tit for tat is one of the oldest political games in the book. Want a calmer, more dignified Washington? Try being what you wish for in others.

Finally, realize that Americans want moderate leadership. Challenge their desire again, and watch what happens.


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05 Sep 2018, 9:21 pm

Frankly, I’m very pessimistic about the upcoming midterms. If a blue wave does come about, I wouldn’t be surprised if Herr Drumpf, declares the Constitution null and void, dissolves the entire government and the associated bureaucracy, and declares himself supreme ruler for life, then throw up a Lexan curtain. Finally all dissent will be silenced by immediate death of any one who even puts up even the mildest dissent. Herr Drumpf rule will be even more brutal and despotic that that of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Pol Pot, Castro, the Kim dynasty, Pinochet, Franco, Perron, Duvalier, and every other tin hat dictator that has ever existed in th last 125 years. We, the people deserved it, because we, the people are now too damned stupid to know our asses from a hole in the ground.


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05 Sep 2018, 9:34 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
. If the base has not abandoned him by now I do not see why anything any investigation can come up with is going to change this.

Why would his voters abandon him?

He has delivered on some of his promises:
-Ended ACA mandate
-Super Tough on illegal aliens
-cut taxes
-huge increase in military spending
-tariffs to help US manufacturers (pro-union)
-verbally threated companies planning to build oversea factories (pro-union)
-reworked NAFTA (pro-union)
-cheaper health care with slimed down ACA plans
-super low unemployment
-stock markets near record highs
-ended free trade deals (pro-union)
-and still non-PC

AFL-CIO union may endorse Trump 2020 (a big MAYBE)
https://freebeacon.com/politics/afl-cio ... rump-2020/

He was elected because he said things like this ....
Image


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05 Sep 2018, 10:18 pm

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
Lots of headlines likely to occur between then and now so I suppose it depends who has more bombshells in their pockets.

That said, I really don't think blue wave or overwhelming conservative victory are likely. Dems, whether they want it or not, suffer for anything that goes on at the far left as much as Republicans do for the far right. My guess is if there are Dem nominees they'll be much more center-left.

I see the Dems as having the same problem as before.

Trump is a populist entertainer with Socialist economics, and front-runner Dems are mostly boring, career politicians with conservative economics.


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05 Sep 2018, 10:29 pm

Huh????

Trump, socialist economics? Not defining it right might be due to you being a baby boomer (they throw the word around a lot incorrectly).

You do know socialist economics is to take money from the rich to give to the poor, right? You know - raising taxes, particularly for the rich.

Trump is following the classic trickle down conservative model. The economy is one of the reasons socialist groups all over the US are against the orange ogre.



Last edited by Spooky_Mulder on 05 Sep 2018, 10:35 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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05 Sep 2018, 10:30 pm

exhaustive list of times trickle down economics works:


Meistersinger wrote:
Frankly, I’m very pessimistic about the upcoming midterms. If a blue wave does come about, I wouldn’t be surprised if Herr Drumpf, declares the Constitution null and void, dissolves the entire government and the associated bureaucracy, and declares himself supreme ruler for life, then throw up a Lexan curtain. Finally all dissent will be silenced by immediate death of any one who even puts up even the mildest dissent. Herr Drumpf rule will be even more brutal and despotic that that of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Pol Pot, Castro, the Kim dynasty, Pinochet, Franco, Perron, Duvalier, and every other tin hat dictator that has ever existed in th last 125 years. We, the people deserved it, because we, the people are now too damned stupid to know our asses from a hole in the ground.


he'll make like a mussolini in a heartbeat if that happens.



i predict there will be a blue majority, but not to overwhelming as to be called a "wave".


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05 Sep 2018, 10:38 pm

Spooky_Mulder wrote:
Huh????

Trump, socialist economics? Not defining it right might be due to you being a baby boomer (they throw the word around a lot incorrectly).

You do know socialist economics is to take money from the rich to give to the poor, right?

Trump is following the classic trickle down conservative model.

Trump is following the Socialist economics platform.
https://www.socialistpartyusa.net/platform

-end free trade deals
-implement protective tariffs
-control immigration to protect worker pay
-new NAFTA contains requirements of minimum worker pay
-bad mouth / threaten companies moving jobs overseas
-he even wanted a border tax to "protect" American jobs

This is why the biggest labor union is seriously thinking of endorsing Trump, why he's called "America's first blue collar billionaire" and why "true conservatives" like George Will left the Republican party.

The blue-collar billionaire: explaining the Trump phenomenon
http://www.electionanalysis2016.us/us-e ... henomenon/


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Spooky_Mulder
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05 Sep 2018, 10:42 pm

:lol: You twisting the immigration policy to make it sound like Trump is brilliant and very telling.

Quote:
The Socialist Party works to build a world in which everyone will be able to freely move across borders, to visit and to live wherever they choose. We recognize the central role global capitalism plays in forcing the immigration of people from the less developed to the more industrialized countries, often leading to further economic and social injustice.
We support secular democratic states, assuring equal rights to every citizen and resident in accordance with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
We oppose the militarization of the United States/Mexican border, and an increase in the service budget instead of the "military" budget of the INS.
We defend the rights of all immigrants to education, health care, and full civil and legal rights and call for an unconditional amnesty program for all undocumented people. We oppose the imposition of any fees on those receiving amnesty.
We call for an end to the use of "secret evidence" in deportation hearings, a ban on all immigration detentions and military tribunals, and full due process and habeus corpus rights in U.S. courts for all non-citizens on U.S. territory or in U.S. custody. We demand an end to police raids in areas where immigrants congregate.
We oppose "guest worker" programs.
We call for full citizenship rights upon demonstrating residency for six months.


Yep, that sure sounds a lot like the orange ogre. :lol:

I will give you trade deals though. The rest of what socialism stands for though? :lol: Around the world the group fighting the orange ogre the most (even more so than Democrats who are trying to play centrist) are socialists. We’re the far left - Trumpsters view us as evil.



Last edited by Spooky_Mulder on 05 Sep 2018, 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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05 Sep 2018, 10:50 pm

Spooky_Mulder wrote:
:lol: You twisting the immigration policy to make it sound like Trump is brilliant and very telling.
Quote:
The Socialist Party works to build a world in which everyone will be able to freely move across borders, to visit and to live wherever they choose. We recognize the central role global capitalism plays in forcing the immigration of people from the less developed to the more industrialized countries, often leading to further economic and social injustice.
We support secular democratic states, assuring equal rights to every citizen and resident in accordance with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
We oppose the militarization of the United States/Mexican border, and an increase in the service budget instead of the "military" budget of the INS.
We defend the rights of all immigrants to education, health care, and full civil and legal rights and call for an unconditional amnesty program for all undocumented people. We oppose the imposition of any fees on those receiving amnesty.
We call for an end to the use of "secret evidence" in deportation hearings, a ban on all immigration detentions and military tribunals, and full due process and habeus corpus rights in U.S. courts for all non-citizens on U.S. territory or in U.S. custody. We demand an end to police raids in areas where immigrants congregate.
We oppose "guest worker" programs.
We call for full citizenship rights upon demonstrating residency for six months.


Yep, that sure sounds a lot like the orange ogre. :lol:

I will give you trade deals though. The rest of what socialism stands for though? :lol: Around the world the group fighting the ogre the most are socialists.

I said "Socialist economics", not "Socialism", not the entire platform, not 100% of all policies , no one is absolutely 100%.

On the other thread, we have seen Darmok post pics of how Trump's immigration policies are improving pay for workers.

Just search google "Trump Sanders economic populism". Trump himself noted how him and Sanders have similar economic ideas.


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Spooky_Mulder
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05 Sep 2018, 10:55 pm

So Trump is going to raise taxes on the rich to give to the poor which is the intent, but raise taxes period?

Trump is going to raise minimum wage to fifteen dollars?

Trade deals you’ve got, the rest? Nope.

Again you are incorrectly stating Trump’s immigration platform is socialist when it runs completely contrary to the platform.

As stated socialist groups around the world are the most actively anti-Trump - more so than Democrats. We’re the “extremist” “far left.” :lol: Trumpsters view us as evil. Socialists and Trump supporters would both agree you’re using the term wrong - one of the fews things we would agree on.