US midterms: a referendum on Donald Trump

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The midterm elections early next month are shaping up to be the most consequential in a generation. The stakes are high for the Republican party, which controls both chambers of Congress but risks a possible rout in the House of Representatives due to a large number of retiring members and anti-Trump anger energising Democrats.

For Mr Trump, the stakes are even more dramatic. Losing the House would allow the Democrats to open investigations — with subpoena power — into everything from his tax returns to his alleged affair with porn star Stormy Daniels. More critically, Democratic control of the House would enable the party to try to impeach Mr Trump — particularly if Robert Mueller, the special counsel, produces a damning report about ties between the Trump campaign and Russia and possible obstruction of justice by the president.

Political pollsters believe the Democrats are going into the final stage of the campaign in a strong position. Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report notes that the party that controls the White House has lost House seats in 35 of the 38 midterms since the civil war.

The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. The Cook Political Report estimates that 69 of the 435 races are competitive — where both parties have a realistic chance of winning — while another 39 races have the potential to become competitive. Of the 31 seats in the House that it rates as a “toss-up”, 29 are currently held by the Republicans, while another 12 of the competitive seats are rated “lean Democratic”...

“It is a referendum on Trump for the most part,” says Howard Dean, a Democratic presidential contender in 2004. “I expect to win the House and I actually think there’s a decent chance we will win the Senate.”

When a president has an approval rating above 50 per cent, the historical record suggests that the midterm losses for his party can be limited. Mr Trump’s rating has been hovering in the low 40s.

Aside from the tendency for voters to punish the president’s party, the Democrats should gain from a court decision to order a redistricting in Pennsylvania to reverse Republican gerrymandering. “I’m very optimistic about taking back the House,” says Brendan Boyle, a Democratic congressman representing Philadelphia...