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Anyone else is obsessed with Covid-19 news and statistics?

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EzraS
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16 Mar 2020, 2:54 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
45,000,000 cases.

810,000 hospitalizations.

61,000 deaths.

That's the regular old endemic seasonal flu in the USA.

So far with Corvid in the US it's:2628 cases, and 50 deaths.

With the regular flu the death rate is one eighth of one percent, with Corvid-19 in the US its two percent.

So if Corvid 19 got as common as regular flu there would be close to a million deaths (instead of just 61 thousand).

Or...

Would there be?

The bad news is that Corvid-19 may be FAR more widespread than we think. Or that's how it looks to me.

The reason being that a large chunk of the people who get it don't have any symptoms, or have mild symptoms, so they don't get counted.


The good news is if that's the case then the ratio of those who get it to those who die of it maybe different from what we think. If you're sick enough to die you get counted, but if you're not sick enough to be even be counted as being sick then you don't get counted at all. So the actual ratio of the infected to those who die may have a bigger denominator under the same size numerator than we are aware of. If its the same number of deaths but out of bigger infected population than we know about then ...that would be the good news...that its less deadly than we think.

The world average is about four percent from the official figures. Nations range from two percent to five percent. But oddly enough there is ONE exception:Germany. Germany has 4282 cases and all of 8 deaths. That's a death rate of one fifth of one percent. Far less than any other country. And only slightly worse than the regular seasonal flu rate of one eighth of one percent. Am curious about why Germany's rate is so low.


I have seen that the stats for regular flu vary greatly. Some years there are less cases but more deaths. I do not think that one eighth of one percent is a constant each year. Probably it is an average based on the span of a decade or more.

Another CDC statistic is that approximately 7,708 people die every day in the United States.

Globally approximately 150,000 people die every day.



naturalplastic
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16 Mar 2020, 3:42 pm

EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
45,000,000 cases.

810,000 hospitalizations.

61,000 deaths.

That's the regular old endemic seasonal flu in the USA.

So far with Corvid in the US it's:2628 cases, and 50 deaths.

With the regular flu the death rate is one eighth of one percent, with Corvid-19 in the US its two percent.

So if Corvid 19 got as common as regular flu there would be close to a million deaths (instead of just 61 thousand).

Or...

Would there be?

The bad news is that Corvid-19 may be FAR more widespread than we think. Or that's how it looks to me.

The reason being that a large chunk of the people who get it don't have any symptoms, or have mild symptoms, so they don't get counted.


The good news is if that's the case then the ratio of those who get it to those who die of it maybe different from what we think. If you're sick enough to die you get counted, but if you're not sick enough to be even be counted as being sick then you don't get counted at all. So the actual ratio of the infected to those who die may have a bigger denominator under the same size numerator than we are aware of. If its the same number of deaths but out of bigger infected population than we know about then ...that would be the good news...that its less deadly than we think.

The world average is about four percent from the official figures. Nations range from two percent to five percent. But oddly enough there is ONE exception:Germany. Germany has 4282 cases and all of 8 deaths. That's a death rate of one fifth of one percent. Far less than any other country. And only slightly worse than the regular seasonal flu rate of one eighth of one percent. Am curious about why Germany's rate is so low.


I have seen that the stats for regular flu vary greatly. Some years there are less cases but more deaths. I do not think that one eighth of one percent is a constant each year. Probably it is an average based on the span of a decade or more.

Another CDC statistic is that approximately 7,708 people die every day in the United States.

Globally approximately 150,000 people die every day.


Sounds like you're an apologist for Osama Bin Laden!

"So...3000 americans died in one day. So what? 7708 Americans die every day anyway. Ergo Bin Laden was a nice guy!" :lol:

Everyone knows that about one percent of the American population dies every year. The point is that this flu is a new added thing on top of the normal stuff we take for granted.

Normal flu may vary in the exact death rate but it hovers around the same order of magnitude - which is much less than this new flu. Unless the numbers are skewed in the way I suggest above- skewed downward in total numbers -therefore distorted upward in mortality rate.



naturalplastic
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16 Mar 2020, 5:46 pm

On the other hand... I think that I get where you're coming from.

This thing doesn't really make American life THAT much more dangerous than normal.

Folks shouldn't ignore it, but you can overdo the hysteria.



CarlM
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16 Mar 2020, 7:49 pm

I found a website today that lists the cases in NY by county: Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). This has been a big help in decreasing the amount of time I waste searching for this data. So today I was obsessed with the stock market instead :roll:.


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EzraS
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16 Mar 2020, 10:11 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
On the other hand... I think that I get where you're coming from.

This thing doesn't really make American life THAT much more dangerous than normal.

Folks shouldn't ignore it, but you can overdo the hysteria.


Yeah that's all. No Osama Bin Laden apologist BS. You are so quick attack people with some crass snipe.



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18 Mar 2020, 10:02 am

I found this and it's pretty comprehensive; however, it's filled with data that's two days old :(. A lot can, and has, happened in two days. Either way, here it is for your graphical pleasure.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/


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18 Mar 2020, 10:46 am

EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
On the other hand... I think that I get where you're coming from.

This thing doesn't really make American life THAT much more dangerous than normal.

Folks shouldn't ignore it, but you can overdo the hysteria.


Yeah that's all. No Osama Bin Laden apologist BS. You are so quick attack people with some crass snipe.


Didn't Mr Laden win the world "Hide and seek" competition?


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naturalplastic
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18 Mar 2020, 1:41 pm

Mountain Goat wrote:
EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
On the other hand... I think that I get where you're coming from.

This thing doesn't really make American life THAT much more dangerous than normal.

Folks shouldn't ignore it, but you can overdo the hysteria.


Yeah that's all. No Osama Bin Laden apologist BS. You are so quick attack people with some crass snipe.


Didn't Mr Laden win the world "Hide and seek" competition?


Huh?



They located Bin Laden, and in 2011 US Navy Seals famously killed him in his hideout nine years ago.



jimmy m
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18 Mar 2020, 2:17 pm

9BillionNamesofGod wrote:
Now I can't stop reading the latest news and statistics about Covid-19, and it doesn't help that it is everywhere, so even when I try to distract myself often I end up finding more stuff about Covid-19. I feel like my brain has been hijacked, any tips how to stop this?


It is natural to fear. It is built into our DNA. If something new pops up on the horizon, something unknown, it attracts our attention. Danger produces a razor sharp focus.

So how do you stop it? I do not know if you can stop it. But you can channel it. You can analyze the threat. Define means of minimizing the threat. Develop an action plan and then implementing the action plan. It is the last step, implement the action plan, that will put you in the driver's seat, instead of fear being in control.


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19 Mar 2020, 10:18 am

It's exploding here, Michigan went quickly from zero to now 119 cases and three deaths :(


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19 Mar 2020, 10:36 am

Angnix wrote:
It's exploding here, Michigan went quickly from zero to now 119 cases and three deaths.
In many ways, Michigan's perspective on science is still stuck in the 1960s. This is one reason why I moved out.


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EzraS
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20 Mar 2020, 7:12 am

Lately I have been looking at the numbers and quite honestly wondering how they add up to a severe crisis.

Without applying the 2 cases could turn into billions exponential growth theory that is.



funeralxempire
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25 Mar 2020, 12:07 pm

Just gonna leave this here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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25 Mar 2020, 3:52 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
And then make some money in Vegas.


But... that isn't exactly what comes to mind when one is also worrying about a shortage of ventilators...



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25 Mar 2020, 4:11 pm

I've been avoiding it much as I can. I have always loathed the news. All it does is trigger my flight or flight instincts, but I can't fight the problems or run away from them either. So the stress and anxiety just stays and eats away at me. Am I the only one who feels this way? Am I the only one who can't watch the news because I'll be lucky not to be completely suicidal by the end?



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25 Mar 2020, 4:58 pm

News is like that most times, but now there is the added chance the instead of making one feel like that the news can materialize and do the deed itself...