Who do you think will win the 2020 election?

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MSBKyle
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04 Oct 2020, 1:28 pm

We are now less than a month away from the 2020 election. I don't think the debate last week really changed anyone's mind because most people who watched it thought that both Biden and Trump behaved poorly. Now we have Trump in at Walter Reed being treated for the coronavirus. The Senate wants to go ahead and confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. I don't know if Barrett being confirmed to the Supreme Court will help Trump or not. It's very hard to say who will win at this point because Americans are so divided on politics. In 2016, both Clinton and Trump were disliked. The polls gave Clinton over a 90% chance of winning and we all know how that turned out. Now the polls are saying that Biden has a high chance of winning. A lot of democrat voters are not that enthusiastic about Biden, but I don't think he is as despised as Hillary was. I think Hillary Clinton's unfavorability rating was higher than Biden's. Biden is still not that well-liked and many democrats know that not much will change if he gets elected, but they are so hell-bent on getting Trump out of the White House that they will vote for Biden no matter how bad he will be. Despite all the hate that Trump gets, he still has a lot of devoted supporters. I often hear that is support is growing among black people and hispanics. I think it will be an interesting few weeks. Anything can happen from now until election day. We've a lot of crazy things happen throughout this campaign, and I think that things are going to get crazier.



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04 Oct 2020, 2:14 pm

Trump is polling better vs Biden in the battle ground states than vs Clinton.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... 0-vs-2016/

Trump's job approval is climbing recently , rising to 45.3%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6179.html

Trump voters are less scared of the virus, maybe. So, maybe, much more likely to vote.

This seems very decided based on turnout, hard to predict in advance.


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04 Oct 2020, 2:17 pm

538 gives Biden about 4:1 odds, so a Trump victory certainly shouldn't be seen as impossible even if it's not the most likely outcome.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/


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04 Oct 2020, 2:30 pm

Well, based on the polls Biden is a very strong favorite to win.

... but this is what I wrote in October 2016:

GGPViper learned the meaning of Hubris when he wrote:
Following the latest week of catastrophic developments for Trump, with many senior GOP republicans abandoning ship... now culminating in the apparent "half"-withdrawal of support from Paul Ryan, the highest ranking elected Republican in the US...

... a question remains... Is it over for Trump? Is there any angle that might salvage his chances of winning the election? Or has his campaign passed the point of no return?

At this point I'm having a hard time seeing how any - realistic - event in the coming month could salvage his dreams of the Presidency... But am I missing something?

Please discuss...

... so I am reluctant to go all in on a Biden victory despite his large lead in the polls...

... after all, my ego is as fragile as it is massive...


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04 Oct 2020, 4:01 pm

MSBKyle wrote:
Whom do you think will win the 2020 election?
Putin


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05 Oct 2020, 1:33 am

MSBKyle wrote:
The polls gave Clinton over a 90% chance of winning and we all know how that turned out.

Important to say - no, they didn’t. They gave her somewhere around a 71% chance. So more than two-thirds but less than three-quarters. Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

A lot of us misunderstood what a 71% chance meant because we couldn’t imagine the American people would accept someone as uncouth, stupid, and openly bigoted as Trump. In other words we put our feeling before the facts.

Certainly now Biden is more likely to win, but there is still a chance Trump could surprise us.



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05 Oct 2020, 3:14 am

If it is any consolation to those of us who were wrong in 2016 (Protip: it isn't), Hillary Clinton *did* win the popular vote with a sizeable margin of more than 2 percentage points and almost 2.9 million votes… roughly equivalent to the population of Kansas.

Only two persons have become US president with a lower popular vote margin than Trump (Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 and John Quincy Adams in 1824). Both were also highly controversial.

And if the US had direct election of the president (instead of indirect election via the Electoral College) Trump would never have been elected president.

But it hasn't, so he was.


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05 Oct 2020, 5:20 am

If you believe the NBC poll Biden's lead doubled after the debate to 14 points. If that is true that is an insurmountable lead. Even if that poll is an outlier Biden has had a consistent lead in the vast majority of polls between 6 and 9 percent which is more then enough to overcome Trump's electoral college advantage.

Most people that I have read have opined that his catching COVID and a serious case at that because of his own behavior will doom whatever chance he had. Support in the vulnerable over 50 demographic is dropping etc.

But what if he and those he infected recover quickly and he is able to run an energetic campaign?

Trump will come out looking like a stud especially in comparison to the "wimp" Biden.

Seeing this discourages what to used be called the resistance, this is a tipping point, they become convinced Trump has some magic powers they can not understand and can't beat.

People will be reminded that even in the vulnerable populations most do not die thus the do it to protect Grandma arguments for restrictions and lockdown will lose popularity.

The combination of the above and plus the shy Trump voter phenomenon is just enough to close the gap enough to win the electoral college.

The above scenario depends on a lot going right for Trump. Trump is more likely to do too much too soon resulting in another public incident. Shy Trump voter seems like an oxymoron.

Based on the lengthy and consistent Biden lead plus that the odds being against the above scenario coming to fruition means I think it is likely Biden will win. That said anyone that is confident in any prediction in 2020 is a fool.


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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 05 Oct 2020, 5:24 am, edited 4 times in total.

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05 Oct 2020, 5:21 am

My new iPad has won my 2020 election and no other election matters to me. 8)


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05 Oct 2020, 10:00 am

I honestly don't know. Last presidential election destroyed my faith in this country to at least elect a responsible leader (I know Trump didn't win the popular vote, but still way more votes for him than I expected).


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Mr Reynholm
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05 Oct 2020, 10:18 am

Trump will win in a massive landslide!



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05 Oct 2020, 4:44 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
MSBKyle wrote:
The polls gave Clinton over a 90% chance of winning and we all know how that turned out.

Important to say - no, they didn’t. They gave her somewhere around a 71% chance. So more than two-thirds but less than three-quarters. Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

A lot of us misunderstood what a 71% chance meant because we couldn’t imagine the American people would accept someone as uncouth, stupid, and openly bigoted as Trump. In other words we put our feeling before the facts.

Certainly now Biden is more likely to win, but there is still a chance Trump could surprise us.


I don't think Trump, the person, rather than the synecdoce, can surprise us any more. Except by learning something from catching Covid. I'm much more worried that the American people will NOT surprise us, the snooty Europeans who always thought Americans were, at heart, rednecks, by finally sobering up.


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06 Oct 2020, 1:48 am

The major polls favor Biden, but I am worried that voter suppression will be in full gear.

Texas has pulled every stop to rig the election in favor of Trump.


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06 Oct 2020, 2:04 pm

I would think before Trump was hope.

-Drain the Swamp
-Bring back millions of jobs
-Make America great again

Now millions likely realize he's not hope.


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KT67
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06 Oct 2020, 2:24 pm

Trump

Trump voters worship Trump
The left doesn't worship Biden



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07 Oct 2020, 12:27 am

KT67 wrote:
Trump

Trump voters worship Trump
The left doesn't worship Biden


i think people to the left of trump are so scared of another 4 years of trump that it's motivating enough to vote for a moderate democrat who is undeniably not going to make any changes that alter the status quo. and i think the fact that he's so boring in this time is an unintentional reason why he may be able to snag the election, because i think a lot of people have become disillusioned with trump since his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his obvious calls for fascism. democracy is skewed here but we can still say there is some semblance of "for the people", and even die hard, life long republicans are disgusted by his disregard for democracy.

in comparison, biden is not that much different from a moderate republican tbh. and i'm sorely disappointed that him and kamala are the only option to get the president the fvck out, but i realize that my disappointment is the same reason why someone far to the right of me would prefer biden over trump.