Satellite data shows up climate forecasts

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cyberdad
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20 Oct 2023, 5:21 pm

I think the OP is no longer on this site to defend his anti-climate change stance

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21 Oct 2023, 1:28 pm

cyberdad wrote:

I think the OP is no longer on this site to defend his anti-climate change stance

Still seems like a good topic, however.

Valid good news about climate change would seem to fit well in this thread, too (and perhaps OP would like that).

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cyberdad
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21 Oct 2023, 10:31 pm

The OPs original primary defence was rainfall. What he didn't factor is that climate change is not unidirectional. It involves massive changes in climate events.

For example the Gipplsand region of southern victoria experiences drought and fire followed by flooding in a matter of months, According to the OP the increase overall rainfall means climate change isnt happening but he's ignoring the fact that temperature is also increasing with rainfall and that conditions go back to being dry in summer in a matter of days.

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22 Oct 2023, 12:47 pm

Off Topic

I'm content to continue posting about Climate Change here. Seems to be as good a place as any. Currently most of the Climate Change news is bad but I'm seeing some positive signs in the world...I expect that within fewer than five years there will be more good stories as well (but I have a horrible suspicion that the good news will just be about delaying an inevitable, increasingly horrible future...let's hope I'm too pessimistic!).

"Almost half the world’s population could be at risk from dengue due to global warming"

Quote:

Rising temperatures mean that nearly half the world’s population may now be at risk of dengue infection, new modelling forecasts.

Analysis from Airfinity, a science data analyst company, shows that the incidence of dengue has already increased by at least 30-fold over the past 50 years.

Half a million cases were reported to the WHO in 2000, rising to 5.2 million in 2019, with the true number of annual infections now estimated to be up to 96 million.

Once specific to small pockets of Asia, the disease is now considered endemic in more than 100 countries globally and its geographical reach is continuing to spread, according to the WHO.

Global warming is driving increasingly hotter and wetter climates in which mosquitos, the main transmitter of dengue, can survive, breed and further spread.

Since I do not live in an are where dengue fever is epidemic I looked dengue fever up in Wikipedia.

"Scientists are sounding the alarm about a dangerous problem that will soon affect 2 billion people — here’s what to know"

Quote:

So far, the world’s average temperature has risen by just under 1.2 degrees Celsius (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial level due to human activity, according to Science Hub. The Paris Agreement — an international treaty to limit heat-trapping gases produced by each country and stop the world from getting hotter — proposed to cap the increase at 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

However, the new study found that with the current laws, population growth, and environmental conditions, the world will likely reach about 4.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the preindustrial benchmark, per Science Hub.

The researchers then looked at which areas would be most affected if the temperature increased to that level. They defined “unprecedented heat” zones as areas where the average temperature throughout the year, counting all seasons, is 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit or higher.

Science Hub reported that 40 years ago, only 12 million people worldwide lived in regions with temperatures surpassing that heat. Today, thanks to the warming we’ve already experienced, about 60 million people are affected.

The study found that by 2100, 2 billion out of the world’s projected population of 9.5 billion will live in areas with an average temperature higher than 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit. The most affected areas will be countries around the equator, noted Science Hub: India, Nigeria, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan.

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23 Oct 2023, 4:35 pm

"Comprehensive study of West Antarctic Ice Sheet finds collapse may be unavoidable"

Quote:

The study doesn’t make specific sea level rise predictions, but outside researchers have estimated in the past that the total collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet could contribute about 10 feet to overall sea level rise.

The melt process would likely take several centuries, Steig said. Other processes are contributing to sea level rise, including the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet, the loss of mountain glaciers and the expansion of ocean water due to warming. Researchers are scrambling to understand these complicated ice sheet dynamics and whether there are critical thresholds for runaway melt.

So...no need to rush out and buy a swimsuit just yet.

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DoniiMann
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24 Oct 2023, 4:35 pm

As they retire, scientists are starting to speak their minds.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-24/ ... tYaBvRQRfw

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24 Oct 2023, 5:44 pm

"Climate disasters did nearly $400 million in damage daily for 20 years: research"

Quote:

Climate change-driven disasters have caused damages equivalent to $391 million a day for 20 years, according to projections published in the journal Nature Communications.

^{Highlighting added.}

"Headed to 'Potential Collapse': Alarm Bells Are Blaring in New Climate Report"

Quote:

Global climate extremes are adding up, and scientists are warning with renewed urgency that both natural and human systems are at risk of collapse. In a new report published in the journal BioScience, researchers analyze what they describe as 35 planetary vital signs used to track climate change. They found that 20 of the 35 signs are at new extremes. While most of those are bad records, a few actually represent positive steps.

"Life on Earth under 'existential threat': climate scientists"

Quote:

"The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023. We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered," said an international coalition of authors in a new report published in the journal BioScience.

Their stark assessment: "Life on planet Earth is under siege".

They said humanity had made "minimal progress" in curbing its planet-heating emissions, with major greenhouse gases at record levels, and subsidies for fossil fuels soaring last year.

The damning assessment comes just a month ahead of UN COP28 climate negotiations to be held in oil-rich United Arab Emirates.

"We must shift our perspective on the climate emergency from being just an isolated environmental issue to a systemic, existential threat," the authors said.

^{Gee! Does anyone have good news?!}

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26 Oct 2023, 9:19 pm

"World on brink of environmental tipping points, UN says"

Quote:

Climate change and the overuse of resources have put the world on the brink of six interconnected tipping points that "could trigger abrupt changes in our life-sustaining systems and shake the foundation of societies," the UN University's Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) said.

"Once these thresholds are passed, the system fails to function as it normally would, and you get new risks cascading out, and these new risks can transfer to other systems," said UNU-EHS researcher Jack O'Connor, lead author of the report.

"We should be expecting these things to happen because in certain areas they are happening already."

Is there any good news on climate change?

Or...are there any suggestions on how to survive despite climate change?

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naturalplastic
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26 Oct 2023, 9:53 pm

Well if...Iran, HAMMAS, Israel, China,and Putin, dont combine to drag us all into WWIII, maybe we can ...catch our breath...and think about it.

DoniiMann
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27 Oct 2023, 4:14 pm

People can deny climate change all they like, but the world's incurrence companies aren't. Climate change impacts insurance industry.

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naturalplastic
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27 Oct 2023, 4:46 pm

Yes.
Thats actually an old story. Since the Seventies insurance companies have had to revise their actuarial tables to account for climate change on the damages to property.

I remember mentioning that to a family friend of my parents even back then...who was a Republican who happened to be a lawyer working for some lobby. Because he was a lawyer, and a grownup, and I was just a teen, he was able to talk rings around me.

But I got my revenge. One time at Thanksgiving he said that "Canada is three times of the US" (he lived in upstate New York, right near the Canadian border). And I corrected him and said "No, Canada is only about five percent bigger than the US". I turned out to be right. It took him years to get over it. :lol:

But I digress.

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02 Nov 2023, 2:49 pm

"Global heating is accelerating, warns scientist who sounded climate alarm in the 80s"

Quote:

Global heating is accelerating faster than is currently understood and will result in a key temperature threshold being breached as soon as this decade, according to research led by James Hansen, the US scientist who first alerted the world to the greenhouse effect.

The Earth’s climate is more sensitive to human-caused changes than scientists have realized until now, meaning that a “dangerous” burst of heating will be unleashed that will push the world to be 1.5C hotter than it was, on average, in pre-industrial times within the 2020s and 2C hotter by 2050, the paper published on Thursday predicts.

This alarming speed-up of global heating, which would mean the world breaches the internationally agreed 1.5C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement far sooner than expected, risks a world “less tolerable to humanity, with greater climate extremes”, according to the study led by Hansen, the former Nasa scientist who issued a foundational warning about climate change to the US Congress back in the 1980s.

Hansen said there was a huge amount of global heating “in the pipeline” because of the continued burning of fossil fuels and Earth being “very sensitive” to the impacts of this – far more sensitive than the best estimates laid out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“We would be damned fools and bad scientists if we didn’t expect an acceleration of global warming,” Hansen said. “We are beginning to suffer the effect of our Faustian bargain. That is why the rate of global warming is accelerating.”

"False claim 'climate crisis hoax' statement signed by thousands of scientists | Fact check"

Quote:

The claim: Thousands of scientists sign 'climate crisis hoax' document

A Sept. 14 article circulating on Facebook claims a large group of scientists downplayed the dangers of climate change in a signed declaration.

"Thousands of Scientists Unite to Expose ‘Climate Crisis’ Hoax," reads the headline of the article, which was published on the website News Addicts.

The article was shared more than 400 times in six weeks on Facebook, according to Crowdtangle, a social media analytics tool.

Our rating: False

Thousands of scientists did not sign the document referenced in the article. The document lists only around 1,600 purported signatories, the vast majority of whom have no listed expertise in climate science. Hundreds of the purported signatories are not listed as being scientists of any kind, according to a USA TODAY count.

Quote:

Air pollution kills millions of people globally each year...

but experts say efforts to clean the air - may actually speed up climate change.

It's an unintuitive finding that scientists found...

...after poring over the results of China's decade-long 'war on pollution'.

Six leading climate experts, say its highlighted what amounts to a catch-22.

The drive to banish sulphur dioxide from the atmosphere has saved thousands of lives...

but it has also removed an effective shield against the sun's heat... albeit a toxic one...

“We're actually heating the planet by improving the air quality..."

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03 Nov 2023, 2:29 pm

"Health officials sound the alarm on concerning reason behind Cholera outbreak: ‘Made a bad situation worse’"

Quote:

A dramatically changing climate doesn’t just mean warmer temperatures and changing precipitation patterns; weather changes can also impact rates of diseases like cholera.

"Scientists fear rising temperatures may release ancient threat from Siberian permafrost: ‘It could be a danger to us’"

Quote:

As temperatures rise, ancient viruses trapped beneath the ice have been revealed — and some are still infectious. A 30,000-year-old virus (infectious, thankfully, only to amoebas) was “revived” from melting Siberian ice in 2014, the journal Nature reported.

Though that virus wasn’t dangerous to humans, scientists worry that a disease that infects humans could be freed from the melting ice. The World Health Organization has prioritized “Disease X” in its efforts to prevent future pandemics.

additional bad news...

"Cheesemakers are pushing back against France's strict rules as some say climate change is making it impossible to meet the traditional standards"

Quote:

France has famously strict standards for how its quality cheeses are made, but some cheesemakers say they're getting harder and harder to meet.

French cheesemakers told The New York Times that climate change is impacting their ability to follow traditional methods for quality cheeses, including some of the 46 cheeses that carry the prestigious AOP label, which stands for "Appellation d'Origine Protégée" or "Protected Designation of Origin."

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BTDT
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03 Nov 2023, 3:23 pm

I've taken advantage of the climate change to grow a camellia plant in central Connecticut. It is 15 years old and blooms most years. It started blooming this year on Halloween! I also my blue Hydrangea to bloom for the first time in over twenty years! Normally it gets whacked by winter and won't bloom in my yard.

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04 Nov 2023, 3:39 pm

BTDT wrote:

USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map

Quote:

The 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10-degree F zones and further divided into 5-degree F half-zones.

It sounds like the charts might need updating!

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04 Nov 2023, 3:42 pm

"Scientists sound the alarm over a concerning phenomenon observed in the ocean: ‘This is worrying news’"

Quote:

Scientists are worried that the recent extreme ocean warming is a sign we haven’t kept up with how quickly the planet is changing. Countries have reported some of the warmest temperatures in recorded history, and the same can be said for the waters from the North Atlantic to Antarctica.

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