Putin recognizes rebel territories in Ukraine as indepent !

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Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine as independent on Monday in a dramatic escalation of a crisis triggered by Moscow that Western leaders have warned is a pretext for a Russian invasion of its western neighbor.

:d) https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-t ... n-ukraine/

It is pretty much confirmation action. Ukrainian army has failed to regain these territories and it was a stalemate for years now. Russia has been supporting the separatists with military equipment and yes, troops too - just not officially. The world has pretended they do not see it. Now Putin has basically said that situation is not what everyone (including him) pretends it to be and admitted what it is for real.

Ukraine is a weird puzzle on Easter European map. It is the only country which gained independence after soviet union disassembled, in which quality of life when it comes to income, access to public services (healthcare etc.) and unemployment has not increased over levels from 1990. Think about it - over 30 years of stagnation! It is essentially a failed state. Run by a limited group of oligarchs who hold grasp over majority of national wealth and use population as a cheap workforce to bait western corporations and then reap profits from these operating on Ukrainian territory.

Here in Poland we have over 300 000 people from Ukraine with temporary residence permit. That's about 60% of all foreigners. There are thousands more staying here without legal permit - it is easy enough to get one, but there are rejections sometimes. I've went to school and university with Ukrainians. I worked with them. They are in my limited social circle. The cleaning service in building I live in is 100% composed of Ukrainians. Our ATM machines have Ukrainian language option. Text in most of more recent models of buses and trams used in public transport are displayed in Polish, English and Ukrainian.

Now, consider this. Poland is still behind western Europe in terms of wages and living standard. Our average net income is three times lower than in Germany, our neighbour. But it is still three times higher than in Ukraine!! ! Plus, consider that average puts all eggs into one basket. But even when you take median income adjusted to costs of living, we are still sitting at over twice the amount of what people earn in Ukraine (the same applies to German vs Polish incomes, they earn roughly twice the amount we do). Poland, for all its faults and problems, still have much better public services and social safety net than Ukraine.

Think about a situation, in which a country where regular citizen is earning half of what those living in Germany or France do, is comparatively a night and day difference for people from Ukraine. They are coming here because their own country is a mess. Just like a lot of Poles did when we entered the EU - Polish workforce flooded UK and Germany.

Ukraine, as an area, has never been ethnically unified and Putin speaks some truth when he says that there is no such thing as Ukrainian nation. It is rather new concept which pro-west governments want to reinforce by eradicating Russian language from public space, official use and goes as far as renaming streets and destroying monuments which were named/erected in honour of extraordinary Ukrainian citizens who were of Russian nationality.

Still, 17% of people living in Ukraine consider themselves Russians and even more speak this language with the same proficiency as Ukrainian or use it exclusively. Furthermore, seeing that European Union and USA have failed to help Ukrainians realise the dream of better future, many are wondering if getting on better terms with Russia wouldn't be a more beneficial course of action. These people feel let down by both their own country and west.

The buzz around recent events in Ukrainian minority over here is more related to the fact that loads of them are afraid that they'll get enrolled into army against their will by a governmental decree, than to what happens with Ukraine itself. They simply do not care any more. People I've been speaking about do not want to go back, to fight and die for a country run by people who are already taking their wealth, transfer it to foreign accounts, packing up and leaving. For a country which has been such a crap place to live they needed to abandon their families and places they grew up in just to have a chance at normal life elsewhere. Ukraine has not been a good "mother" to them. They do not mind seeing it falling under Russian influence if that is the price to pay for having a possibility of leading a normal, peaceful life elsewhere.

The situation is not as black and white as western media claim it to be. Nor it is as straightforward as Russians say it is. Still, there's a reason why separatist movements have sparked in the first place, leading to current situation. Truth to be told, many Ukrainians are sick of their own country. Some escaped to the west, even if it meant staying in Poland (if they haven't managed to get visa to Germany, for example) which is far from the ideal place to live for them, also because of a pretty visible hostility towards Ukrainians. Some have lost faith that western democracy model will change anything, ever and would rather become a Russian satellite state once again, because they feel there was more equality back when USSR was still a thing. Yes, there are patriots, too - but they are definitely not majority.

Final nail in the coffin - west doesn't really care about Ukraine in any other context than a political and business one. They deliveries of military equipment meant to help Ukrainian army are laughable in volumes, no one will impose any strong sanctions as Europe is doing business with Russia.

Another Abkhazia, another South Ossetia, another Crimea.
If the strategy keeps working for Putin, why stop?
This is another of countless examples of a major power weaponizing the ideal of self-determination to further geopolitical goals. While at the same time brutally suppressing any separatism at home.

I'm not sure what Putin thinks will come of this. He does not seem to be going for total regime change so much as he is intimidating the current Ukrainian government into not going against Russia's wishes. He doesn't need a friendly regime if an unfriendly regime can be cowed into accepting Russian dominance of the Black Sea. Ukraine is getting Finlandized.

Best case scenario is that Russia still faces diplomatic isolation from this. This will push their neighbors into the arms of the west more than it will frighten them into complying with Moscow's wishes.

As much as I despise him, I do appreciate Putin's cunning. He knows the game and how to play it.

It is worth to repost this here:

Putin's effort is to forever bind Ukraine in a frozen conflict or a dispute that would forever bar it from NATO or EU membership. Which is what his demand was.

Both Middle Easterns and Eastern Europeans realize that the West is never a reliable « ally ».
Why else some Arab states and Israel are joining forces you think? Even Israel realized it.

I see a lot of parallels between the Russia/West and Iran/West situations.

Q: Would you prefer a psychopathic killer or a self-absorbed narcissist as the leader of your country?

Who here is surprised that the shitcan is doing what a shitcan does?

To paraphrase Team America:

Biden: Pull back from Ukraine or else.

Putin: Or else what?

Biden: Or else we will be very, very angry with you and we will write you a letter telling you how angry we are.

It's a win-win for Putin. The US would not intervene and risk a possibly nuclear war in mainland Europe, so it will seem weak and unreliable to other countries. Putin gets a puppet state and makes it clear to Ukraine that Russia is more willing to control it than NATO/anyone else is willing to risk war with Russia.

Access to the Black Sea is just that important to Russia and it always has been. Putin knows they need Sevastopol if Russia is going to regain the prestige it once had.

I don't think Ukraine will be able to regain Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea but the remaining part, while unable to join NATO, can directly invite American military bases.
The result could be South-Korea-like. Not the worst that could happen.
And new Cold War, which has been hovering over us for some time already, materializes.

A big question now: what message US sends to China about Taiwan by their actions (or inactions) in Ukraine.

I understand Russia's motives I guess. While Russia has done a good job of keeping their noses out of the the west's business it's hardly been mutual. I'm sure the Russians hate NATO bases right up to their border just as much as the US will hate Russian bases on the Canadian or Mexican border. It's no different than Russia anchoring aircraft carriers in the English channel.

Seems like they're making a buffer zone and it's certainly not the worst that can happen. I'm more in support of Russia shoehorning a buffer zone in by force than NATO destabilising relations with base building up to the Russian border.

In this calculation, you seem to be totally ignoring 45 million people in the "buffer zone"...
Poland and Baltic States joined NATO for a good reason and this reason wasn't to piss off Russia.

Yip I am ignoring them. It's been known for a long time what would happen if NATO planned on hugging Russia's border.

It's an issue the civilians should bring up with the Ukrainian government.

Can you expand?