What happened to the fertility rate in China?

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SkinnedWolf
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19 Apr 2022, 5:24 am

Ren Zeping: China Fertility Report

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The global total fertility rate data is 1.6 in Europe, 1.8 in North America, 2 in Latin America, 2.4 in Oceania, 2.2 in Asia, 1.1 in China, 1.34 in Japan, 4 in Africa and 3.6 in Muslim countries.

Quote:
If the fertility rate remains at 1.3, China's population will fall into negative growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and will begin to shrink sharply around 2050. By 2100, its global share will drop from the current 18% to 7%.

(Fourteenth Five-Year Plan - 2021-2025)
(Note:this study uses the 2020 fertility rate for projections, and the latest fertility rate is lower than this. This does not take into account that the data released by the official statistics office may be "adjusted")
Quote:
From the long-term trend, due to the gradual disappearance of the fertility accumulation effect and the continuous decline in the number of women of childbearing age, the current birth population is still in a period of rapid decline, and it is expected to further drop to less than 10 million in 2030.

Quote:
The size of the labor force continues to shrink, and will be significantly reduced by 23% in 2050 compared to 2020.

Quote:
The speed and scale of China's aging population is unprecedented due to family planning. In 2020, China's aging population will reach 13.5%. In 2021, China will enter a deeply aging society accounting for more than 14%. Around 2033, it will enter a super-aging society with a proportion of more than 20%. After that, it continues to rise rapidly to about 35% in 2060.

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The problem of China getting old before getting rich is more obvious. When the proportion of the elderly population in the United States, Japan and South Korea reaches 13.5%, the per capita GDP is more than 25,000 US dollars, while China is only more than 10,000 US dollars.


"China's unstoppable rise" is a myth.


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ironpony
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19 Apr 2022, 10:34 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh I see. Why does Japan have a high singleness rate?

In my opinion, the economy is the main problem.
Japan is in their class solidification and recession. It is difficult for young people to get a salary that meets a high quality of life through work, so they suppress their desires, reject consumerism and love. This is the so-called "low desire society".

1986 may be supplemented from other perspectives.

I'm missing a point. Ancient China actually had a culture of "appreciating" female weakness and childishness. This is also present in the Chinese cultural subconscious now. This is an important reason why women are hindered by society/themselves from participating in work.
I've heard that modern Japan is more severe than China at this point.


Oh that's interesting. It just occurred me that in dating, I wasn't into women from that part of the world as much, because I found that to be a bit too... I guess you could say 'prim and proper', but is this the reason why they are, out of curiosity now?



SkinnedWolf
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19 Apr 2022, 10:47 am

ironpony wrote:
Oh that's interesting. It just occurred me that in dating, I wasn't into women from that part of the world as much, because I found that to be a bit too... I guess you could say 'prim and proper', but is this the reason why they are, out of curiosity now?

Sexually conservative, dependent on men, timid, focusing on grooming,fear of risk,and fond of typical "female interests".
Not all East Asian women are like that, of course. But East Asian cultures tend to produce such women.

Violating some of these may make it difficult for the woman to find a heterosexual spouse in her home country.
I've heard that it's even considered rude for Japanese/Korean women to go out without makeup, I don't know if they still do.

There are some progressive forces in society. But the more conservative regions remain so.


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19 Apr 2022, 11:36 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh that's interesting. It just occurred me that in dating, I wasn't into women from that part of the world as much, because I found that to be a bit too... I guess you could say 'prim and proper', but is this the reason why they are, out of curiosity now?

Sexually conservative, dependent on men, timid, focusing on grooming,fear of risk,and fond of typical "female interests".
Not all East Asian women are like that, of course. But East Asian cultures tend to produce such women.

Violating some of these may make it difficult for the woman to find a heterosexual spouse in her home country.
I've heard that it's even considered rude for Japanese/Korean women to go out without makeup, I don't know if they still do.

There are some progressive forces in society. But the more conservative regions remain so.


But why are men in these countries attracted to really prim and proper more? Don't men still have a biological side to that is attracted to a woman with a 'bad girl' side to so speak?



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19 Apr 2022, 11:42 am

ironpony wrote:
But why are men in these countries attracted to really prim and proper more? Don't men still have a biological side to that is attracted to a woman with a 'bad girl' side to so speak?

If "bad girl" refers to having a lot of sexual experiences/partners, men who partner with her face a lot of social pressure.

If "bad girl" refers to women who are sexually open or flirtatious with their boyfriends/husbands, many men will welcome it.
But considering the previous one, how does this type of woman come about without a lot of sexual experience/partners?
For many adult unmarried women in East Asia, watching porn is shameful. Even without social pressure, she herself can be shy.


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19 Apr 2022, 11:45 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
ironpony wrote:
But why are men in these countries attracted to really prim and proper more? Don't men still have a biological side to that is attracted to a woman with a 'bad girl' side to so speak?

If "bad girl" refers to having a lot of sexual experiences/partners, men who partner with her face a lot of social pressure.

If "bad girl" refers to women who are sexually open or flirtatious with their boyfriends/husbands, many men will welcome it.
But considering the previous one, how does this type of woman come about without a lot of sexual experience/partners?
For many adult unmarried women in East Asia, watching porn is shameful. Even without social pressure, she herself can be shy.


But when it comes to the previous one and wanting a woman who is open or flirtatious, and dresses a little naughty with a bit of a naughty swagger that is not prim and propper let's say, why do men object to this? Don't guys like the idea of a woman who is into that, and a woman who is into porn as well?



Last edited by ironpony on 19 Apr 2022, 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

SkinnedWolf
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19 Apr 2022, 11:49 am

ironpony wrote:
But when it comes to the previous one and wanting a woman who is open or flirtatious, and dresses a little naughty with a bit of a naughty swagger that is not prim and propper let's say, why do men object to this? Don't guys like the idea of a woman who is into that, and a woman who is into porn as well?

This woman will be criticized by many people.
A man can also be criticized if he is told that his wife has had many sexual experiences with people other than him.
A pornographic woman will be considered by many to have had too much sex and therefore be "unclean" or prone to cheating, or even a prostitute.
At least conservative people think so. And this kind of people is the vast majority in China.

Perhaps the residents of the American Bible Belt can resonate on this issue.


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19 Apr 2022, 11:51 am

Well I just thought that men were attracted women who present themselves as more 'sexy'. I didn't know that guys were attracted to unsexy, if that makes sense. So basically men are raised to be more attracted to sexually open women in a more progressive society then?



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19 Apr 2022, 12:01 pm

ironpony wrote:
Well I just thought that men were attracted women who present themselves as more 'sexy'. I didn't know that guys were attracted to unsexy, if that makes sense. So basically men are raised to be more attracted to sexually open women in a more progressive society then?

Men are attracted to women who appear to be "sexy", everywhere.
Most men also don't mind/expect having sex with such a woman if they can.
But many Chinese men would not choose to "marry" such a woman.
They would choose a virgin, or a more "honest/conservative" woman to marry.


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19 Apr 2022, 12:16 pm

SkinnedWolf wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Well I just thought that men were attracted women who present themselves as more 'sexy'. I didn't know that guys were attracted to unsexy, if that makes sense. So basically men are raised to be more attracted to sexually open women in a more progressive society then?

Men are attracted to women who appear to be "sexy", everywhere.
Most men also don't mind/expect having sex with such a woman if they can.
But many Chinese men would not choose to "marry" such a woman.
They would choose a virgin, or a more "honest/conservative" woman to marry.


But aren't virgin women most likely prudish and therefore not sexy if that makes sense? Are they worried about their kids not being theres, is that it, even in this day and age of dna testing? Or are most of the men virgins too, and it's just an insecurity thing?



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19 Apr 2022, 12:23 pm

ironpony wrote:
But aren't virgin women most likely prudish and therefore not sexy if that makes sense? Are they worried about their kids not being theres, is that it, even in this day and age of dna testing? Or are most of the men virgins too, and it's just an insecurity thing?

There are no statistics on this, but it can be expected that the male virginity rate in this environment is high because there are not as many sexually open females. And some men are against all premarital sex, including their own. It is understandable that they want to marry a virgin.
But some men will claim on social platforms that their plan is to "f**k non-virgins and marry a virgin."
Some men will appreciate a woman's restraint. Or they want to enjoy themselves "training" a woman.

Even if the husband knows the child is his, he still fears cheating, and even fears that his wife has had (too many) sexual partners before marriage.

I am not a male. I can't understand this idea. But this is the culture of Confucianism/East Asia.


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19 Apr 2022, 12:37 pm

Oh okay. But I didn't think that having prior sexual partners meant much more likely to cheat, does it? For example, I have had partners in my past, but yet I am faithful to my current partner, and have no desire to cheat. So I didn't think that a past meant that likely.

But it also seems like the men are a victim of their own sucess by doing this. We don't want women to have any possibility of being able to cheat so we must make them feel shamed by any kind of sex... Oh crap, the women won't give us any naughty free love moment type of sexual experiences as a result. Isn't this a paradox in mens own interests created by them as a result?



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19 Apr 2022, 1:31 pm

ironpony wrote:
Oh okay. But I didn't think that having prior sexual partners meant much more likely to cheat, does it? For example, I have had partners in my past, but yet I am faithful to my current partner, and have no desire to cheat. So I didn't think that a past meant that likely.

a lot of people conflate promiscuity with an inability to pair bond, or that it actively harms the ability to pair bond(I haven't seen any scientific evidence of this.) which can be extrapolated to them being more likely to cheat.

ironpony wrote:
But it also seems like the men are a victim of their own sucess by doing this. We don't want women to have any possibility of being able to cheat so we must make them feel shamed by any kind of sex... Oh crap, the women won't give us any naughty free love moment type of sexual experiences as a result. Isn't this a paradox in mens own interests created by them as a result?

i think you are describing two separate groups of men with this.



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19 Apr 2022, 2:22 pm

Oh I see. Well if a good amount of men want a virgin so they can train them and like that, aren't they worried though, that if a woman starts out as a virgin before marriage, that they have no idea what she will be like in bed after the marriage, after her 'training', and therefore, not know if they will be sexually compatible with each other or not, if they cannot establish that in bed, prior to the marriage?



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19 Apr 2022, 3:51 pm

Sexual incompatibility is only an issue for a hook-up or short term relationship IMO. If you are in it for the long haul then you have to be willing to learn what your partner wants/needs. Of course tons of people lack these basic communication skills but those problems run way deeper than. Just sex.



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20 Apr 2022, 7:25 pm

Oh really? Then why is it that people tell me that I should break up if I have a gf who is not as sexually compatible, if that's not important for long term then?