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Another Florida man has filed paperwork to enter the 2024 presidential race.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who bills himself as a "unifier," is poised to launch a long-shot bid for the Republican presidential nomination. Running on a record of attracting tech businesses to Florida, reducing crime and capturing the Hispanic vote, he argues that he can help the party chart a positive path forward and appeal to moderates with his focus on climate change. He is the first Hispanic candidate to enter the Republican primary this cycle.

Suarez, a real estate attorney and the son of former Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez, was initially elected in 2017. He was overwhelmingly re-elected in 2021 and serves as the president of the bipartisan U.S. Conference of Mayors.

He has become well known for attracting technology investors to Miami. He previously met with PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and has publicly courted Tesla CEO Elon Musk. He has also been a strong supporter of cryptocurrency, aiming to make the city a hub for digital currency. He argues that Miami can be a "prototype" for the country.

Suarez recently came under fire after a Miami Herald investigation alleged that he helped a development company that pays him $10,000 a month to navigate permit issues. The county’s Commission on Ethics and Public Trust has begun investigating the matter, NBC’s South Florida affiliate reported. A spokesperson for Suarez has vehemently denied the allegations.

He will face the challenge of running against two Republicans from Florida with far more name recognition: former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Matthew Isbell, an elections consultant in Florida, said that the mayor's reluctance to engage in culture war issues could also cost him in the Republican primary.

"Suarez on climate change isn’t going to play well in a primary. It might play well in a general, but if you can’t get past the primary, it doesn’t matter," Isbell said.

"He’s going to have to appeal to a lot of steadfast conservatives that do not care that the city of Miami got new development," Isbell added. "Voters in West Virginia don’t care, voters in Indiana don’t care and, frankly, voters in Key West don’t care."

Suarez has said that he intends to be firmly in the race ahead of the first Republican debate in August.

One theory holds that while the GOP base’s confidence in Trump seems unshakable at the moment, fears about the impact of his legal issues and extremist language on swing voters will soon lead to doubts about his electability. Maybe, but it hasn’t happened yet. The post-indictment Economist-YouGov survey directly asks Republicans about the electability of various candidates. Seventy-one percent of respondents believed that either Trump or DeSantis would “probably win against Joe Biden.” You could mark that up to general GOP optimism, but other candidates (notably Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Chris Christie) are underwater in the ratio of Republicans who think they would win rather than lose against Biden.

General-election polling also shows little or no evidence of Trump losing ground after his second indictment. The two post-indictment polls matching Trump against Biden show no significant movement. Quinnipiac has consistently given Biden a small lead by two-to-four points; in the latest survey (like the one in March), Biden is up by four points. Similarly, Economist-YouGov has been showing a very close general-election race all year; the latest survey (like the one in early May) shows the two candidates tied. In the more reliable RCP polling averages, Trump currently leads Biden by two points and DeSantis leads the president by 1.2 percent. It’s worth remembering that the Electoral College has really benefited Trump in the past. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percent and came within 44,000 votes of losing anyway. So a tie probably won’t be good enough.

He may be laboring in the shadow of the prison guard tower, but that could actually be helping him with Republican voters without unduly affecting a deeply polarized general electorate.

Former Vice President Mike Pence on Friday questioned why some of his competitors in the GOP presidential primary are implying a guilty verdict is on the horizon for former President Donald Trump in the classified documents case.

“I don’t know why some of my competitors in the Republican primary presume the president will be found guilty,” Pence said in an interview with NBC News’ Chuck Todd to air in full Sunday on “Meet the Press.”

“All we know is...what the president has been accused of in the indictment. We don’t know what his defense is. We don’t know if this will even go to trial. It could be subject to a motion to dismiss. We don’t know what the verdict will be of the jury,” Pence said.

Asked whether he would take that step, Pence sidestepped the question.

“Well, I just think the question is, is premature,” he said during Friday's interview in Huntsville, Alabama.

Asked on Friday if he would pardon Trump if he were in President Joe Biden’s shoes, Pence did not directly answer and instead said: “I just think this whole matter is incredibly divisive for the country...It is saddening to me that we are now in this moment.

Congressional Republicans "absolutely should" start the impeachment process for President Joe Biden over whistleblower allegations that there was meddling in a government investigation of his son Hunter, GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley said Thursday.

Asked on Fox News host Greg Gutfeld’s show “Gutfeld!” why Republicans can't start impeaching the president now, Haley said, "Well, they absolutely should."

The comments from Haley, a former governor of South Carolina and ambassador to the United Nations under former President Donald Trump, came as House Republicans look to question officials from the Justice Department and the IRS on allegations that there was interference in an investigation into Hunter Biden.

The chairs of the House Oversight, Judiciary and Ways and Means committees are seeking interviews with over a dozen officials involved in the investigation of tax-related misdemeanor crimes alleged to have been committed by Hunter Biden.

In discussing the IRS whistleblower, Haley said the person was “actually legit.”

“You’re not talking about just some guy that showed up and decided to say something,” Haley said.

Gary Shapley, a supervisory special agent with IRS criminal investigations who has worked for the agency since 2009, testified before the House Ways and Means Committee in May, and the committee made the transcript available this month.

Among Shapley's allegations is that David Weiss, the U.S. attorney for Delaware, sought authority to hit Hunter Biden with broader charges in Washington, D.C., and California, but the U.S. attorneys in those districts wouldn’t do so.

The Justice Department has denied the allegations. “As both the Attorney General and U.S. Attorney David Weiss have said, U.S. Attorney Weiss has full authority over this matter, including responsibility for deciding where, when, and whether to file charges as he deems appropriate. He needs no further approval to do so,” said Wyn Hornbuckle, deputy director of the Justice Department Office of Public Affairs.

Shapley also alleged to the committee that as an investigator for the IRS, he obtained messages Hunter Biden sent on the WhatsApp platform, including one that he read demanding payment from a Chinese businessman named Henry Zhao. In the message, Biden appeared to suggest that he was sitting with his father, then the former vice president, saying, “I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction.”

President Biden has denied any involvement with the text message, and an attorney for Hunter Biden said Friday that purported screenshots of the text message are “not real and contain myriad of issues.”

A campaign spokesperson made clear Friday that Haley wants lawmakers to conduct oversight that could lead to impeachment.

“Nikki believes Congress needs to get to the bottom of whether Joe Biden committed crimes or other impeachable offenses since the Justice Department refuses to do it. That process starts with a Congressional oversight investigation,” Ken Farnaso said in a statement.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a GOP presidential contender who has been more critical of Trump, said Friday that he did not yet think Biden needed to be impeached.

“While the whistleblower allegations are serious and must be investigated, impeachment should not be an option until the investigation shows corrupt action by the President," he said in a statement. "Impeachment should not be used as a political weapon, but reserved for serious wrongdoing. The facts should determine what action, if any, Congress should take and impeachment should not precede a thorough investigation.”

Former Vice President Mike Pence’s surprise visit to Ukraine Thursday highlighted a stark divide inside the GOP over American involvement in the country’s defense against Russia.

And it drew a sharp contrast between Pence and his old boss, former President Donald Donald Trump, who led their party in a more isolationist direction.

Pence, the first candidate in the crowded Republican 2024 presidential field to visit Ukraine, countered directly the rising “America First” wing of modern conservatism and sought to position himself as the party’s leading champion of the hawkish foreign policy that defined the party for decades.

“I truly do believe that now, more than ever, we need leaders in our country who will articulate the importance of American leadership in the world,” Pence told NBC News in Kyiv. “Ever since the days of Ronald Reagan, the American people have always stood with those who fought back to defend their own freedom.”

The visit came as many conservatives have called for cutting ties to Ukraine, which has received hundreds of billions of dollars from the Biden administration in aid and weapons. They argue the money would be better spent in the U.S., that the real fight for freedom is against progressivism at home, and that the struggle with Russia is a distraction from the more important one with China.

Trump, to whom Pence remained loyal until their falling out during the Jan. 6 insurrection, has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin, said he would end the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible — which would almost certainly require Ukraine to make major concessions — and refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine or Russia to win, even when repeatedly pressed on the question during a CNN town hall last month.

“Shockingly, almost the entire GOP field supports Biden’s strategy of blind support to Ukraine,” Vivek Ramaswamy, the tech entrepreneur who has become an unexpectedly strong presidential candidate, said in a memo posted to Twitter this month: “I disagree & predict this will become *the* key distinguishing issue in our primary.”

But Pence said his visit to Ukraine and meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy only “steeled my resolve” and “made me better equipped to be able to go home as I speak to the American people about the vital importance of American support to repel Russian aggression.”

The former vice president has emphasized Ukraine on the stump more than any other Republican candidate and plans to connect Ukraine’s current fight against Russia with the American war of Independence when he celebrates July 4 in Iowa next week, according to his campaign.

“There can be no room in the leadership of the Republican Party for apologists for Putin,” Pence said in a speech marking the anniversary of Russia’s invasion in February.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday he would not be former President Donald Trump’s running mate if given the opportunity to join him on the ticket.

“I don’t think so. I’m not a No. 2 guy,” DeSantis said on the “Wisconsin Right Now” radio show, saying he would rather stay on as governor because the vice presidency “doesn’t really have any authority.”

Asked about his own thoughts on a running mate, DeSantis said, "It’s a little bit presumptuous to be doing that at this stage."

Ron DeSantis just came out against the U.S. providing Ukraine with cluster-bomb munitions. This echoes Donald Trump, who recently said that President Joe Biden “should not be dragging us further toward World War III by sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.” So, once again, DeSantis fails to distinguish himself from the man who, according to the RealClearPolitics poll average, is almost 33 points ahead of him in the Republican nomination race. As Politico put it the other day, “The DeSantis-is-stalled news cycle is now in full effect.”

There are varied theories about the roots of DeSantis’s woes: His team isn’t ready for prime time. He’s too focused on the culture-war concerns of right-wing Twitter. He hasn’t properly brought the fight to Trump. Voters aren’t sufficiently aware of his impressive record as governor. Broadly speaking, he hasn’t made a powerful argument for his nomination or offered a winning vision for the country under a country under a DeSantis presidency.

It would be nice if arguments and vision were decisive. But that’s not where we’re at. If Trump is unbeatable on the right, he’ll remain unbeatable until and unless someone else comes along who, by strength of personality, can capture the love of the crowd.

Arguments, vision—are these even capable of altering the shape of the race? Is Donald Trump way out ahead among Republican voters because of the strength of his arguments and the clarity of his vision for the United States?

Hardly. While Trump’s argument against a crooked establishment and his vision of populist retribution are welcome among a broad swath of Republican voters, they’re not his alone. What Trump preaches has become boilerplate on the right. It’s easier to count the elected Republicans who dissent from new-right populism than the ones who embrace it. And DeSantis not only embraces it; he speaks it more coherently than Trump and makes headline news by enacting bold new-right policies. If argument and vision counted as much as we’d like to think, DeSantis would be, at least, in striking range.

We’re eight years into the Trump phenomenon and long overdue in facing this simple, absurd, fact. What people love about Trump is Trump: The sub-Catskill zingers, the bronze-plated pomposity, the boundless egomania that winks at self-mockery, the tacky marketeering, the tabloid outrage, the fearless lying, the sincere disdain for standard political cant, the simpleness of his spite, even his idiosyncratic gestures and aborted sentences. They love the reality-show, pro-wrestling conflation of real life and theatrical battle.

It’s not about policies or ideas. Why would Putin apologists support a man who, as president, was arguably tougher on Russia than any other occupant of the White House? Why would anti-vax, anti-lockdown right-wingers support the man who greenlit Operation Warp Speed and gave Anthony Fauci extended free rein to experiment with the American population? Because they love Donald Trump, the man.

And then there’s Ron DeSantis. If you created an A.I. program to govern a state successfully as a Republican populist, you’d be lucky to end up with something like DeSantis’s record in Florida.

DeSantis has much to boast about. The problem is that the A.I. program might beat him out on personal appeal. It’s not that there’s anything actually wrong with DeSantis’s demeanor. And he’s not the awkward weirdo that his detractors want to portray. He’s mild mannered and tremendously intelligent. He just gives you nothing extra. And Donald Trump is all extra.

It would be nice if arguments and vision were decisive. But that’s not where we’re at. If Trump is unbeatable on the right, he’ll remain unbeatable until and unless someone else comes along who, by strength of personality, can capture the love of the crowd.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped out top donors and burned through $7.9 million in his first six weeks as a presidential candidate, according to an NBC News analysis of his new campaign finance disclosure.

The numbers suggest, for the first time, that solvency could be a threat to DeSantis’ campaign, which has touted its fundraising ability as a key measure of viability. They reflect the broader reality that DeSantis stalled after his launch: polling ahead of the Republican primary pack but far behind former President Donald Trump.

The irony for DeSantis is that he raised a total of $20.1 million between mid-May and the end of June, easily ahead of other Republican candidates — with the possible exception of Trump, who has yet to reveal how much money his campaign raised in the second quarter.

But more than two-thirds of DeSantis’ money — nearly $14 million — came from donors who gave the legal maximum and cannot donate again, NBC’s analysis shows. Some of those donors gave the $3,300 limit for both the primary and general elections, boosting DeSantis’ totals with cash that can’t be used to try to defeat Trump.

DeSantis finished June with more than $12.2 million in the bank, but his filing indicates that $3 million of that can only be used in the general election.

At the same time, DeSantis spent about 40 percent of what he raised, in part by paying salaries to 92 people. That gives him by far the biggest staff footprint of any of Trump’s Republican challengers, but also leaves him with the question of how he can sustain his payroll — or anything close to it — without finding new sources of revenue. Already, he is struggling to keep high-profile supporters on board.

DeSantis does have a financial edge no one else can match in the form of his super PAC, which can accept donations of unlimited size and already took in $130 million. But keeping a campaign humming on smaller donations can be a different matter entirely.

More broadly, Saturday’s second-quarter campaign finance filing deadline showed the challenge that each of Trump’s rivals has in trying to wrest the nomination from him at a time when about half of GOP primary voters say he is their top choice.

No other Republican raised more than $6 million from donors into their campaign account, with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy exceeding that number only by tapping their own personal wealth.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott’s campaign raised almost $5.9 million, while former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s campaign raised $5.3 million. And two candidates who waited until June to jump in posted lower numbers: former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie raised $1.7 million and former Vice President Mike Pence raised $1.2 million.

Their reports show a presidential field largely reluctant to invest in staffing and other major campaign costs, candidates having trouble tapping small-dollar donors for big returns, and a handful of candidates already in danger of missing the Republican National Committee’s first debate. Here’s what else we saw in the second-quarter finances.

Small campaign staffs stand out in the early going
DeSantis stands out among those who have filed their reports in having the largest campaign staff — by a mile. His 92 staffers on payroll are more than double the next-largest campaign so far.

Scott reported 54 campaign staffers while Ramaswamy reported 27 and Haley had 22 staffers. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson had six people on staff.

Other campaigns were operating on a shoestring budget.

Debate qualification already looking tricky for some
The reports also show how difficult it may be for many of the lower-polling candidates to hit the Republican National Committee’s 40,000-donor threshold to qualify for the party’s first debate in August — let alone the polling threshold too.

Small dollar donor struggles
One of Trump’s campaign strengths has long been his appeal to small-dollar donors. The flip side of that: His challengers are not getting much small-donor help themselves right now.

DeSantis, who raised the most of Trump’s challengers in the second quarter, only saw about 14% of his total fundraising haul coming from small-dollar donors, for about $2.9 million.

Haley and Scott, who spent millions building up small-donor fundraising infrastructure before launching presidential campaigns, raised only 16% ($870,000) and 21% ($1.2 million) of their second-quarter totals from small donors, too.

Among the field of Trump challengers, former Gov. Chris Christie took in the biggest share of his total from small donors: just below 35%. But that still worked out to only about $571,000 of his $1.6 million haul.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a 2024 Republican presidential contender, said Saturday that he would consider Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds as his running mate while he criticized former President Donald Trump’s recent complaints about her.

Asked if he would consider Reynolds as a potential pick for vice president if he wins the GOP nomination, DeSantis said: "Of course."

"I mean, she’s one of the top public servants in America," he told reporters at a fundraising event in Ankeny, Iowa.

DeSantis also dismissed Trump’s criticism of Reynolds: “I thought the attacks on her were totally, totally out of hand and totally unnecessary."

Reached by NBC News for comment on DeSantis’ remarks, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said, “Ron DeSantis is totally out of hand.”

Trump, who leads DeSantis by a wide margin in national polling, last week expressed his frustration with Reynolds for declining to endorse a candidate in the early race for the GOP nomination. In a post on his Truth Social platform, the former president suggested that Reynolds is supporting DeSantis, despite her vow to uphold a norm among Iowa governors to remain neutral throughout the swing state’s closely watched presidential primary.

“I opened up the Governor position for Kim Reynolds, & when she fell behind I ENDORSED her, did big Rallies, & she won,” Trump wrote.

“Now, she wants to remain ‘NEUTRAL.’ I don’t invite her to events! DeSanctus down 45 points!” he added, referring to DeSantis, his chief rival for the party's nomination.

Days earlier, the New York Times, citing people close to Reynolds and DeSantis, had reported that the two governors “forged a bond” at the height of the coronavirus pandemic and that one of Reynolds’ senior advisers, Ryan Koopmans, also advises the pro-DeSantis super PAC.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign is planning a reboot, top campaign officials said, with a significant shift on messaging, events and media strategy.

Expect fewer big speeches and more handshaking in diners and churches.

There will be more of a national focus than constant Florida references.

And the mainstream media may start to get more access.

In short, DeSantis will be running as an insurgent candidate rather than as an incumbent governor.

“Ron DeSantis has never been the favorite or the darling of the establishment, and he has won because of it every time. No one in this race has been under fire more and won than Gov. DeSantis. He’s ready to prove them wrong again. Buckle up,” DeSantis campaign manager Generra Peck said in a statement to NBC News.

Campaign filings show that the DeSantis campaign needs to figure out how to bring in more money and spend less. It fired roughly a dozen staffers last week. Donors and allies are pressing for a change. The poll numbers are stagnant. And rival GOP presidential candidates are smelling blood in the water.

“Downright low” is how a source who was present when the staffers were fired described morale these days.

“The entire campaign is on the brink,” the person said. “I’ve never seen anything like it.”

But the hurdles remain significant, and it’s unclear whether it’s too late to reverse early stumbles. While some candidates have successfully shifted after tough starts, the presidential campaign trail is littered with candidates who ultimately failed to regain momentum.

Leaner, more intimate campaign events
DeSantis’ campaign finance report flashed some bright warning signs.

Although he raised more than $20 million from mid-May to the end of June — more than any other GOP presidential candidate — more than two-thirds of that money came from donors who gave the legal limit and can’t donate again. He also spent about 40% of what he raised, with 92 people on the payroll.

The full extent of the campaign’s dire financial picture became clear to the broader team only after the June 30 end-of-quarter reporting deadline, said two sources familiar with the situation, who asked to remain anonymous because they weren’t authorized to share information on behalf of the campaign.

Top DeSantis aides acknowledge that the money situation has to be addressed. They plan to do it in part by cutting costs for his events.

DeSantis won’t travel less, but his campaign appearances will begin to be leaner and more intimate.

This week’s stop in Tega Cay, South Carolina, served as a starting point — he held a town hall-style event with a noticeably pared-down security presence. According to figures provided by the campaign, the event cost $940 but brought in $1,600 in organic donations from attendees.

Going forward, expect fewer podiums and stages and more stops at Pizza Ranches, churches and VFW halls where DeSantis can speak directly to voters with no big platforms or barricades blocking close contact.

“All DeSantis needs to drive news and win this primary is a mic and a crowd,” Peck said.

The campaign will also rely more heavily on “special guest” invitations from outside organizations to cut down on its own event costs, particularly ones run by its bigger-pocketed counterparts at the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down.

New communications strategy
DeSantis will also tweak his message. Until now, much of his pitch to voters has been centered on his accomplishments in Florida. But he will soon switch to a more national outlook, top campaign officials said.

The candidate already known for being a culture warrior will lean into an “us against the world" message in the effort to emerge as the insurgent fighter. The campaign intends to wear the negative headlines as a badge of honor.

At the same time, the campaign is opening up to what it has long called “corporate media” after months of having largely limited his engagement with reporters to conservative outlets. DeSantis took questions from NBC News about immigration issues in June, and he sat down with CNN this week.

The campaign said more interviews with national media will be coming, along with more media gaggles and greater media access overall to the candidate while he’s on the trail.

They’re dubbing it the “DeSantis Is Everywhere” approach, and they’re bringing on a new hire and solidifying the communications team to help execute it.

The DeSantis campaign has already laid off roughly a dozen people, NBC News reported. Campaign officials said that, as of now, they don’t plan any more budget-related layoffs.

The layoffs shook the campaign. The source in the room that day said a lawyer and senior staff member — not Peck — went around the office and dryly notified employees they were being let go, thanking them for their service and telling them they needed to leave by 2 p.m. that day. The fired staffers were told someone would follow up with them in the coming days.

Reactions to today's indictment are starting to roll in from Trump's opponents in the 2024 GOP primary.

"One of the reasons our country is in decline is the politicization of the rule of law," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tweeted. "No more excuses—I will end the weaponization of the federal government."

Vivek Ramaswamy committed to pardoning Trump. The corrupt federal police just won’t stop until they’ve achieved their mission: eliminate Trump," his campaign said.

One of the reasons our country is in decline is the politicization of the rule of law," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tweeted. "No more excuses—I will end the weaponization of the federal government."

Trump critic Will Hurd, a former Texas congressman, reiterated his stance that Trump's presidential bid "is driven by an attempt to stay out of prison and scam his supporters into footing his legal bills."

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who called on Trump to end his campaign after his second indictment, reiterated that sentiment after today's indictment.

"The latest indictment reaffirms my earlier call that Donald Trump should step away from the campaign for the good of the country. If not, the voters must choose a different path,” he said.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina said, “I remain concerned about the weaponization of Biden’s DOJ and its immense power used against political opponents."


Pence: 'Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president'
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, suggested that Trump's indictment signaled the former president had put his own ambitions ahead of the Constitution.

“Today’s indictment serves as an important reminder: anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be President of the United States," Pence said in a statement. “On January 6th, Former President Trump demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution. I chose the Constitution and I always will."

Trump repeatedly pressed Pence to overturn his 2020 election loss as he presided over the proceedings on Jan. 6 certifying President Joe Biden's victory.

"The former president is entitled to the presumption of innocence but with this indictment, his candidacy means more talk about January 6th and more distractions," Pence said in today's statement.

“I will have more to say about the government’s case after reviewing the indictment," he said.

by the end of the summer, Trump could be a defendant in four different criminal cases in four different courtrooms. That might not stop him from getting the Republican nomination — in fact, the first set of charges may actually have helped him. But even if they don’t damage him among his base, the indictments could hurt Trump simply by sucking up his time and attention. If he wants to avoid a conviction while running for president, he may need to spend a lot of energy dealing with these cases — leaving him with less bandwidth to campaign.

“Active client engagement is critical for success at trial,” said C. Melissa Owen, a criminal defense attorney in North Carolina who is active in the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers. “Trump is the best person to educate his lawyers about the circumstances in the cases, particularly his intent. Typically the more client involvement you have, the better the outcome.”

Juggling four different criminal cases is a daunting task for anyone, even if they’re not simultaneously trying to convince the American public to give them one of the most powerful jobs in the world. At first, most of the back-and-forth will happen out of the public eye: Before the trial begins, prosecutors will share information they’ve gathered with the defense team, and lawyers on both sides may ask the judge to make decisions about how the case will go — including, in some situations, whether it will get thrown out. Owen said that some clients like to be more involved in these early stages of the process than others. But defense lawyers need some level of input from their client, she added, because new information is becoming available and their understanding of that information needs to line up with how the client sees it.

And then there’s the trial itself — which could be lengthy, depending on the number of witnesses who are being called and the scope of the evidence that’s being presented. Trump’s status as a former president could throw a wrench into the process, too. “Jury selection alone is going to be really complicated,” Owen said. Each trial could end up taking weeks before a verdict is reached. It is possible that Trump will try to get out of being in the courtroom while the trials are happening — he routinely chooses not to show up in civil cases — but criminal defendants are generally expected to be present for every day of their trial. And even if Trump isn’t forced to be there, skipping all or part of a trial is a big risk for him. “It’s a really bad look not to be there,” Owen said. “Let’s just say it’s a bad signal to the jury, that the defendant thinks they have a better place to be.”

So it’s possible that the various court proceedings could end up sucking up months of Trump’s time during crucial points in the campaign. Right now, he’s first scheduled to go on trial in late March in New York, where he’s charged with falsifying business records as part of a payoff scheme for an adult-film actress during the 2016 campaign. That’s a couple of weeks after Super Tuesday — which means that while it’s possible that Trump will be the de facto GOP nominee by then, there’s also a chance that the Republican primary will still be grinding toward its conclusion.

The second trial, involving allegations that Trump illegally kept classified documents and obstructed efforts to get them back, is currently set for May. And if a similar pattern holds for the latest indictment — and any future indictment out of Fulton County — that means Trump could face additional trials in the summer of 2024, in two different places on the East Coast.

In some ways, that timing isn’t the worst for Trump, since the competitive portion of the Republican primary will likely be over by May. (If it’s not, the timing would be pretty terrible, since every state would be crucial in a down-to-the-wire primary campaign.) Trials throughout the summer wouldn’t interfere with the busiest part of a general election campaign, which heats up after Labor Day, although if he’s unlucky, one could coincide with the Republican National Convention, making for a very unfavorable split screen for the GOP. But if the cases are wrapped up by the fall without a conviction, Trump could be in an even stronger position in the home stretch of the campaign. “From his perspective, the best-case scenario is that he’s acquitted and then goes full-steam into the general election,” said Richard Briffault, a law professor at Columbia University who studies the political process.

But there’s also the possibility that Trump will be convicted in one or more cases after all of the votes have been cast in the GOP primary, which would likely ensure that he stays on the November ballot. In theory, the rules could be changed at the nominating convention to allow pledged delegates to vote for someone else, a long-shot gambit that Trump opponents unsuccessfully tried in 2016. Such a coup would be extremely difficult to pull off, though, and it likely wouldn’t go over well with the large chunk of GOP voters who believe that Trump should be able to serve as president even if he’s convicted of a serious crime (48 percent, according to a YouGov/Yahoo News poll conducted in July). Meanwhile, there’s no rule that says Trump can’t keep running if he’s convicted of a crime. He could even run from prison, although he’s unlikely to end up behind bars before the 2024 election. “Trump would immediately appeal any conviction, and that would take time,” Briffault said. “I don’t think we could count on an appeals court decision by November.”

Once the trials are over, though, the cases are unlikely to take up much more of Trump’s time even if he’s convicted, since, according to Owen, appeals require much less client input. So he’d be free to spend the last few months of the campaign on the trail, working to convince voters that he still deserves a second term. But moments from the trials might still come back to haunt him. “A criminal trial is not a popularity contest,” she said. “It’s a full examination of the most questionable decisions you’ve ever made. Which, needless to say, is the opposite of what any candidate wants during a presidential campaign.”

Either Donald Trump will be the 47th President of the United States, or Donald Trump will spend the rest of his life in prison, give or take a different future Republican president pardoning him or commuting his sentence. The latest federal indictment dropped on Trump makes it clear that, for him, the stakes of the November 2024 presidential election are win—or go to jail.

That’s because, unlike most other failed coup leaders, Trump will get a second shot to legitimately win the power he needs to keep himself out of prison. Other countries do everything they can to prevent people who’ve tried to violently overthrow the government from holding elected office, but our country has decided to try a different approach. There are two principal reasons Trump is being afforded this unusual grace: a strategic decision from special counsel Jack Smith, and the due process that is supposed to be afforded to every criminal defendant in this country—and is always afforded to wealthy white ones.

Regardless of how this all plays out, Smith’s decision will be discussed in the history books in countries that are still allowed to have history books. Yesterday, Trump was charged with three crimes arising out of his attempt to change the results of an election he lost: conspiracy to obstruct the tabulation of election results; conspiracy to obstruct the certification of those results on January 6, 2021; and conspiracy to deprive Americans of the right to vote. But he was not charged with insurrection, sedition, or treason. That is significant because an insurrection charge is the only one that could trigger the 14th Amendment’s prohibition on public officer holders who subsequently “engage in insurrection or rebellion” from holding public office again.

I have had this debate with every lawyer I respect over the past few years: Do you charge Trump with a weaker insurrection case because that’s the only thing that will legally prevent him from running for office again, or do you stick to the stronger obstruction case that still allows him to run for office from prison even if you get a conviction? Anecdotally, I’d say that most constitutional scholars and history buffs are on team “insurrection or GTFO,” while most trial lawyers and prosecutors respond to that with, “Are you freaking crazy? You only charge the crimes you are sure you can prove.”

Smith went with the stronger case, and since I’ve already been wrong about Smith once (when he was initially appointed, I thought he’d be another Robert Mueller type who was more interested in covering his ass than defending the country), I am not inclined to second-guess him again. Even though we all saw Trump engage in rebellion on January 6, proving that his intention was rebellion is more difficult than proving his intent to obstruct the electoral process. I do not think that Smith’s decision to drop the insurrection charge was politically motivated; I think it was legally motivated.

I trust that Smith will be ready to move on Trump as quickly as the process allows, but the second thing that will allow Trump to run again is that the process moves slowly. That’s despite the fact that, unlike his federal indictment in Florida, Trump didn’t get to appoint his own judge in this case. Instead, he drew US District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan, an appointee of President Barack Obama who, by acclamation, is a no-nonsense jurist.

But Chutkan has a reputation for being fair to criminal defendants, and Trump will have some fair arguments for delay. First of all, as everybody knows, this is not the only indictment Trump is facing: he’s being charged in D.C. over January 6; he’s being charged in Florida over his mishandling of classified documents; he’s being charged at the state level in New York over his false business practices; and in the coming weeks, he’ll likely be charged in Georgia for trying to tamper with the elections process. That’s… a lot of cases for one criminal defendant, and there are no hard and fast rules for the order in which those cases should run. The prosecutors will huddle and present a plan to each of the judges presiding over the trials, but Trump’s defense lawyers will propose a plan too, and the judges will have to work it out. That alone could cause a delay in getting any one of the trials off the ground.

Moreover, Trump can legitimately argue that he needs a lot of time to prepare a defense to any of these charges, especially the federal ones that could put him in jail for the rest of his life. And then there are the illegitimate arguments: With January 6 in particular, Trump’s team will file massive discovery requests as they argue that “proof” of voter fraud and election interference is key to their defense to these charges. There is no proof, because Trump did not win the election, but who knows how many people Trump will try to subpoena and depose. And if anybody balks at what will be a trash and unwarranted subpoena, that could also cause delay. Indeed, every single pretrial motion that Chutkan denies will likely trigger an appeal to a higher court, many up to the Supreme Court, and if any one of those appeals is even in the ballpark of reasonable, we can expect conservative appellate judges to help Trump out by taking their time to rule.

And here’s the thing: Any of Trump’s tricks, legitimate or illegitimate, only has to work once. To go from charges to conviction before the November election, Smith has to essentially run the table and win against all the tactics for delay. Any loss, any decision by the Supreme Court to hear any of these issues on the merits before the trial has concluded likely punts the trial until after the election.

And if Chutkan rushes Trump through the process, quashing subpoenas, denying appeals, denying requests for extensions, basically doing what will be necessary to keep a speedy trial date on track, that could all be grounds for appeal. You see, even if the trial somehow comes off before the next election, and Trump is convicted in that trial, that is not the end of the due process Trump is entitled to. First there will be a sentencing hearing, and those also take a lot of time. The defense will strenuously argue that a 77-year-old “first-time offender” (God, I hate writing that) does not deserve to be thrown in jail. Then there’s the post-conviction appeals process. If Trump were a regular defendant, I’d tell you that he’ll be filing his appeals from a prison cell, but he’s not. Even after a conviction and sentencing, Trump will run to the Supreme Court, asking for an emergency stay of his jail sentence while his appeal and campaign to return to office plays out.

Should the Supreme Court grant such clemency to Trump? No. Do they do so for other people convicted of crimes? Absolutely not. Will they do so for Trump? I don’t know, folks—what do you think the six Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court will say when the Republican nominee for president argues that he should not be jailed a few weeks before a presidential election, when he is actively in the process of appealing that conviction?

Lawyers rightly freaked out when FBI Director James Comey sent a letter announcing the reopening of an investigation into a presidential candidate a week before the 2016 election. Do people really think the conservative Supreme Court is going to let agents of the state run by Trump’s political opponent physically apprehend him and place him behind bars a month or two before the election?

I do not think that. I do not think Trump is going to prison before the presidential election. The timeline simply doesn’t work out. Trump has too many legitimate ways to keep himself free while he runs for office, and that’s before thinking about all the illegitimate things he will do to further gum up the process. Maybe if Trump were facing an insurrection charge there would be a winnable legal argument (to John Roberts and maybe Neil Gorsuch, along with the three liberals) that all of this had to be wrapped up quickly so the American people could know if they were even allowed to vote for the traitor again. But given the fact that, as the charges now stand, Trump will be allowed to run for president again, even if convicted and jailed on all charges, the prospect of actually incarcerating him while he is actively campaigning for that office is incredibly dim.

If we wanted to imprison Trump before he ran for office, the charges against him needed to come much earlier. The fault for this delay is not on Jack Smith but on Attorney General Merrick Garland. In the aftermath of Smith’s indictments, there have been a lot of people retroactively determining that this case came as fast as it could have. That is false. Now that we’ve seen the indictment, we know that all the information needed to charge Trump was uncovered by the Select Committee on January 6, and so we know that Trump could have been charged with these crimes a long time ago, at the start of this year (after the select committee wrapped up its work) at the very latest.

But it’s not all bad. Trump should have been imprisoned after he lost the last election, but he certainly will be if he loses the next one. The legal system that has operated so well to protect Trump up to this point in his life has finally turned the corner. Trump’s only defense to these charges is “I’m about to be president again.” Once that is off the table, he’s got nothing else to fall back on. Once he can no longer dangle pardons in front of his co-conspirators, some of them are likely to turn state’s evidence to save their own skin. Once Trump is defeated by the American people (again), he will find that even his handpicked Supreme Court justices will no longer take his calls (except Clarence Thomas who has… familial reasons to stay invested in Trump’s defense).

I believe Trump will go to prison, because I believe the people will reject his bid for power. It’ll just take one more election. Former New York Governor Al Smith once said, “The cure for the evils of democracy is more democracy.” I hope he was right. Other countries use military power to send their insurrectionist leaders directly to jail. We’re going to try to use the Electoral College to get the job done. May [whatever imaginary friend you believe in] bless the United States of America. We’re gonna need it.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is shaking up his campaign leadership, bringing in James Uthmeier, his longtime chief of staff, as his new presidential campaign manager, the latest move in a reset that is now almost a month in the making.

Out is Generra Peck, who served as DeSantis’ campaign manager through his 2022 re-election and during the tumultuous first three months of his presidential campaign. DeSantis trails Donald Trump in most public polling, and he has already laid off 40% of his initial campaign staff in an attempt to cut costs.

"Gov. DeSantis has to change the dynamics. That much is clear," DeSantis donor Dan Eberhart said. "This is a realignment rather than a reset because both folks were already senior advisers."

Peck, whose exit was first reported by The Messenger, will stay on as a senior adviser. NBC News first reported that top DeSantis allies were pushing for a change at the top of the campaign as his launch did not go as well as expected.

Uthmeier, the chief of staff in DeSantis’ formal office, will serve as campaign manager at a key moment for the campaign. Top aides see the first debate scheduled for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee as a key moment for DeSantis to regain some momentum and try to close the gap with Trump.

“James Uthmeier has been one of Governor DeSantis’ top advisers for years and he is needed where it matters most: working hand in hand with Generra Peck and the rest of the team to put the governor in the best possible position to win this primary and defeat Joe Biden,” Andrew Romeo, the campaign’s communications director, said in a statement.

He said that David Polyansky, a longtime Iowa GOP operative, will now serve as deputy campaign manager. Iowa is increasingly seen as a make-or-break state for DeSantis, who would struggle to maintain any momentum if he does too poorly in the first-in-the-nation nominating contest.

"I still think it is all about Iowa," a DeSantis adviser said. "And in truth the campaign in the early states is in good shape."

Part of the shakeup comes amid dwindling morale within the DeSantis campaign, which at one point had front-runner type momentum but has spent its first few months facing a barrage of negative headlines and shrinking poll numbers.

“I think the governor had been mulling over changes since he learned about some of the financial problems with the campaign,” a Republican consultant familiar with the decision said. “And as time went on, while the financial issues have been fixed, there was still just a feeling the campaign really needed a shakeup to boost morale."

“Sometimes you just need a fresh face," the person added.

The attorney general's appointment of a special counsel in the Hunter Biden probe creates a fresh headache for the re-election campaign of President Joe Biden, distracting from his message and potentially drawing attention away from likely GOP opponent Donald Trump’s mounting legal problems.

The president's allies worry that Republicans will attempt to exploit his son's predicament the same way they weaponized Hillary Clinton’s private email server in 2016, sowing doubts about the Democratic nominee's character and sapping enthusiasm from her presidential campaign. Clinton never faced charges over her reliance on private email as secretary of state, though the issue dogged her and she lost the election to Trump.

“It creates a Hillary-email vibe all over again, and it creates a false equivalency between the very real attacks on American democracy that Trump committed and much lower-scale things in this case that will muddy the waters for the 2024 election,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

Two weeks ago, Hunter Biden's legal saga seemed to be nearing the finish line. He was preparing to accept a plea deal over tax charges that would have spared him any jail time, an outcome that would have allowed the Biden campaign to argue that the issue had been fairly adjudicated and was now closed.

But the deal with prosecutors collapsed under questioning by the judge in the case, setting off a chain of events that culminated in Friday’s announcement from Attorney General Merrick Garland that the prosecution of Hunter Biden was continuing, with no end in sight.

The development makes it tougher for Democrats to capitalize on Trump’s more direct and immediate legal troubles. A renewed investigation into Hunter Biden’s business dealings, depending on what it uncovers, could tarnish the president’s image as someone who had avoided scandal through a career in politics that stretches more than 50 years. Biden has already proclaimed that his son “has done nothing wrong,” a blanket claim that will surely be tested if special counsel David Weiss files new charges that result in a criminal trial.

Some Democrats believe the appointment of Weiss, the U.S. attorney in charge of the matter who was nominated by Trump in 2017, is merely a procedural step to enable him to take the Hunter Biden case to trial, given the jurisdictional hurdles he would otherwise face.

Still, other Democrats hope that Hunter Biden’s fate will be irrelevant to his father’s re-election chances.

“The Hunter Biden special prosecutor changes absolutely nothing,” said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins. “Republicans have been using Hunter as a vessel to investigate the president for the last four years. There has been no substantial evidence of any crimes.”

Hopkins said Biden should stick with his 2024 strategy and keep highlighting contrasts with Trump.

“The president should continue to stay above the fray, focus on his administration’s wins, and remind voters of how chaotic and dangerous a return to Trump would be," he said.

Biden has not been implicated in his son’s alleged misdeeds, despite five years of federal investigations by a Trump-picked U.S. attorney and months of probes by the House Republican leaders aimed at establishing a connection.

Yet the appointment of a special counsel creates potential pitfalls for Democrats. It keeps Hunter Biden’s legal problems in the public consciousness and is likely to redouble GOP efforts to look for a link between the son’s business dealings and the father’s exercise of power.

Tim Miller, a former Republican operative who led early attacks on Clinton over the assault on a U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012, but abandoned the GOP after Trump’s rise, offered this warning to Democrats: Republicans are simply “out for blood” when it comes to Joe Biden and “there is no satisfying them.”

There’s little evidence that the GOP’s attempt to conflate Hunter with Joe Biden has worked with voters. But some political analysts say the issue has the potential to further confuse key voting blocs.

“Swing voters are already struggling to keep the dizzying number of Trump indictments straight. Add Hunter Biden’s travails into the 2024 mix, and these voters may well suffer from vertigo,” said Rich Thau, president of the research firm Engagious, who moderates focus groups for the Swing Voter Project of battleground state voters who backed Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020.

One recent focus group of Trump-to-Biden voters in Michigan found they had little grasp of the controversies that have shadowed Hunter Biden. Participants largely said they didn’t believe the criminal investigation into Biden’s dealings implicated his father.

Only two of the 13 voters described President Biden as “corrupt,” and only two said Congress should launch an impeachment inquiry into the Biden family’s dealings, according to Thau.

On Capitol Hill, reaction to the appointment of a special prosecutor split along partisan lines Friday.