Xi to Biden - We will unify Taiwan with China

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Not currently. I don't doubt they could build enough, but until they do, they don't.

They chose to build an aircraft carrier that they can't use instead.

That's the force that you're worried about successfully invading Taiwan.

No, they'll stumble more than Russia did invading Ukraine, which is both a much more straightforward operation as well as something they've got some experience in (even if it's largely been on a smaller scale). When's the last time China's performed an amphibious assault of any scale, let alone that scale? When's the last time China's engaged in any actual military operations since failing to invade Vietnam?

They'd need a lot more capacity in that regard to have the operational tempo required to sustain a landing large enough to be effective. It doesn't matter how many guys they've got on the wrong shore, but further, Taiwan (and the Yanks, Canadians and Australians) will destroy those assets, leaving PRC with a lot of dudes who are going no where, along with some others who have no resupply.

Hmm, maybe.

Couldn't they just land passenger plane after passenger plane full of soldiers? Take over airports and just keep landing the boys.

Just a thought on how they could get boots on he ground w/o ships to move them.

They'd need air superiority in order for that to work.

They're not likely to establish it, at least not quickly enough to make that sort of strategy to work.

If they tried it without establishing air superiority... that's how you lose all of your elite airborne troops in a day while accomplishing less than nothing. Even if you have cannon fodder soldiers, they're not part of your airborne forces because it takes awhile to train airborne adequately to be able to perform that role, that's what makes them elite.

Even if a plane full of soldiers lands, you'd just bomb the runways at that airport, making the airport useless for further waves. All it would amount to is a hostage situation, once the invaders realize they've got no resupply and no one coming to support them they'd probably surrender. In fact, it would be a two-sided hostage situation, where the troops might have prisoners, but they'd have no means of withdrawal, meaning they'd inevitably be taken prisoner (or killed).

That's supposing the airport didn't become aware of the nature of the 'passengers' and start interfering with disembarking. Potentially they could cause a bottleneck that leaves most of the soldiers trapped on the plane long enough for an armed response.

If it comes to it, as much as destroying civilian runways might be expensive, Taiwan can repair them at their leisure because they control the area.

TL;DR: China can't zerg rush into Taiwan, no way, no hell. And if they build the capacity to do so, we'd know in advance just like we watched them build their carrier.

Trojan cargo ship then... could stick a lot of personnel on a cargo ship.

I just think if China wanted to take Taiwan by force they'd find a way to move enough military personnel to do it.

Maybe they won't need to send so many over ? Maybe they'll just aim some big guns and tell Taiwan they're going to peacefully re-unify with China OR watch really big fireworks fill the sky and wreck the place.

They can't handwave logistics though, that's my point.

A cargo ship isn't intended for disembarking large numbers of people. They'd also need to take over a port for that to be an option. They can't take over the port via cargo ship.

Navies operate ships to get around requiring those sorts of facilities, but a regular cargo ship wouldn't be well suited for that purpose.

As for threatening destruction, Taiwan can go come and take it and call that bluff. They might lose, but they're at least as likely to win as Ukraine is against Russia, so long as their allies don't abandon them.

Taiwan has a modern military and has been increasing spending in recent years. If the US directly intervenes, they'll win. If the US gets involved similar to Ukraine, they'll win. If the US gets involved on a much smaller scale, they'll still likely win.

The sort of operation required to take Taiwan would be complicated even if zero organized military opposition was encountered. Even widespread civil opposition would likely make establishing control impossible. Taiwan's military, including reserves, is huge. 1 829 000 people is a lot and would make occupation a nightmare. It's not likely it would reach the point of occupation though, because getting enough bodies there fast enough is a bottleneck that PRC can't resolve for the foreseeable future.

You know, unless they've got an invisible amphibious fleet no one knows about.
And even then, if they show up on radar or infrared, they're still going to get sunk.

Picture the column into Kiev, only as ships.

Interesting. Basic logistics I get, but I know less than nothing about any countries' military capabilities or numbers of soldiers or spending/technology etc etc. I'd have to google stats and compare.

I guess Hong Kong should have had themselves a military force. Oops.

On the bright side: Probably some cheap flights to Taiwan in the near future if anyone's in the mood for a vacation or business trip.

Since the U.S. is involved with wars in the Ukraine and the Mideast how much armaments and willpower will this divided and increasingly isolationist country have left to take on China, especially directly?

That's a legitimate concern, but I don't believe the US would be overstretched. It would come down to the intensity of the conflicts.

Israel will be fine on their own and Ukraine would likely end up deprioritized.

Hong Kong is much easier to access from the mainland as well:



Meanwhile Taiwan has a significant over-water distance to cross.

Never know, maybe xi meant Eventually in their 1,000 year plan ?

Although, if he told Biden, who is in his senior years... he probably meant during Biden's lifetime and possibly time in government. So, maybe they kick off the process in under a year.

And maybe xi is just bullshitting to see how Biden's USA will react.. to watch them spend money on gearing up for war over there.. to be able to observe the USA's military capacity to do anything seeing as they're pumping money into a couple different wars already.

Or all of the above.

Abraham Lincoln vowed to unify the US after the Southern States seceded, and made good on his words. Xi is pledging the equivalent goal from the Chinese perspective. Xi is a decisive and bold leader like Lincoln.

Annnnnd look where Americans are today.

pardon me？

There are people in my country today talking openly about wanting to start another Civil War and/or have some of their states succeed from the Union (like California and Texas for example).

augh？got it ，u can make a new post if want to talk