Biden predicted to drop out JP Morgan

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cyberdad
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21 Jan 2024, 10:19 pm

Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential race, a top JPMorgan strategist says.
The prediction is among ‘ten surprises’ contained in Michael Cembalest’s ‘Eye on the Market | Outlook 2024’ report.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/le ... a2ea5e366f

It's likely ill-health will be cited as the reason

What options does that leave the Democrat party?



Tim_Tex
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22 Jan 2024, 3:46 am

cyberdad wrote:
Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential race, a top JPMorgan strategist says.
The prediction is among ‘ten surprises’ contained in Michael Cembalest’s ‘Eye on the Market | Outlook 2024’ report.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/le ... a2ea5e366f

It's likely ill-health will be cited as the reason

What options does that leave the Democrat party?


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autisticelders
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23 Jan 2024, 7:48 am

no answers, watching with interest. I am sure Kamala would love to be president.


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23 Jan 2024, 12:34 pm

If he was going to drop out he should have done so already. The party needs as much time as possible to market the replacement candidate.

The fundamental policy differences between progressive and traditional democrates makes it difficult to pick a replacement candidate. If they nominate a socialist or “woke” candidate they run the risk of Trump hating independents and moderates staying home or voting “no label”. If they nominate a traditional democrat they run the risk of progressives staying home or voting for Cornell West. If they nominate a compromise candidate both parts of the party will unenthusiastic. The Dems need every vote they can get. MAGA enthusiasm for Trump is unprecedented even more so in the wake of the indictments.

Is enthusiasm to prevent Trump from being reelected is enough is the big question. Between the disbelief that Trump could win and the dislike of Hillary it was not enough in 2016. In 2020 after 4 years of Trump being President and Biden not loved but not hated it was enough. In 2024 will enough Trump haters be willing to vote for a candidate they don’t like and want for a third time?


The Democrats need to make the campaign all about abortion not their nominee.


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23 Jan 2024, 2:12 pm

I'll believe it if it happens.



cyberdad
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23 Jan 2024, 4:02 pm

blitzkrieg wrote:
I'll believe it if it happens.


Two scenarios
Trump running the free world under house arrest
Biden running the free world under house detention with a full time nurse



goldfish21
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23 Jan 2024, 4:46 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
If he was going to drop out he should have done so already. The party needs as much time as possible to market the replacement candidate.

The fundamental policy differences between progressive and traditional democrates makes it difficult to pick a replacement candidate. If they nominate a socialist or “woke” candidate they run the risk of Trump hating independents and moderates staying home or voting “no label”. If they nominate a traditional democrat they run the risk of progressives staying home or voting for Cornell West. If they nominate a compromise candidate both parts of the party will unenthusiastic. The Dems need every vote they can get. MAGA enthusiasm for Trump is unprecedented even more so in the wake of the indictments.

Is enthusiasm to prevent Trump from being reelected is enough is the big question. Between the disbelief that Trump could win and the dislike of Hillary it was not enough in 2016. In 2020 after 4 years of Trump being President and Biden not loved but not hated it was enough. In 2024 will enough Trump haters be willing to vote for a candidate they don’t like and want for a third time?


The Democrats need to make the campaign all about abortion not their nominee.

I think they'll run Biden all the way. Incumbent president with a strong economy doesn't lose.

Magas may be ever more fanatical about their support for their cult leader, but their numbers aren't strong enough to win an election. trump can't even fill small venues for his rallies anymore and quite a high % of trump voters say he's off the table if convicted of any of his alleged crimes.

He lost the popular vote, then lost the popular vote and electoral college, and is set to lose again IF he's on the ballot. GOP has been running the same loser for 12 years and his support has been waning, not building.


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25 Jan 2024, 8:38 pm

Joe Biden's greatest asset has been that he's always been underestimated, especially during debates. Every time Biden's been counted out, he's more often than not rallied to victory.


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