Why trump can’t win

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By that logic all abstainers are a threat to democracy, which is an absolutely absurd take.

Not all abstainers, but far left tankies if they voted would much more likely to make the lesser of two nightmares vote for Biden.

It goes both ways. Fundies who stay home because Biden is a commie and Trump is a sinner, old school law and order conservatives who stay home because Biden “enables wokeness” and Trump is a insurrectionist crook would if they voted for the lesser of two nightmares would likely vote for Trump thus helping democracy.

The question is are there more abstainers who would have voted for Biden or more abstainers who would have voted have voted for Trump as the lesser of two evils?

In 2016 between the bitterness of the party rigging the nominating process against Sanders and the belief Trump could not win apparently produced more Hillary abstainers the Never Trump conservatives abstainers.

In 2020 the far left tankies had gained 4 years experience living under a Trump administration and the 2020 Biden was not as personally disliked as Hillary.

In 2016 and 2020 non MAGA conservatives bitched, complained, warned about Trump the vast majority of them ended up voting for him. Never Trumpers as a political factor has been wishful thinking.

In both elections progressives had a strong aversion to the Democrat nominee because they were “neo liberals”. The combination of the Democrat nominee being both “Genocide Joe” and “senile” is at a whole different level. The mitigating factors might be that Trump since the 2020 has instigated an insurrection, been indicted on 91 counts, held liable twice and makes the 2016 and 2020 Trump sound like a reasonable guy. There was excitement about polling showing a substantial number of Republicans would not vote for Trump if he was convicted. This has been tempered by uncertainty that he will be convicted before the election, and the percentage of Republicans saying that dropping.

I do think overall the abstainers advantage Trump. Too many unprecedented factors to be sure. What I am sure about is that if there was a word that denotes a higher level then maddening that is where we are at.

Abstainers were never going to vote for either candidate regardless, that's my whole point.

Someone who believes there's no significant difference between the candidates and doesn't want to express support for either isn't a likely Biden vote, they're a guaranteed abstainer and they don't owe either candidate they find repulsive a vote. If no one earns their vote, why would they feel obliged to give either candidate their vote?

Beyond that, there's MAGA Communists like Caleb Maupin who would encourage those people to vote for Trump. Even if they're not a MAGA Communist, they might be an accelerationist who believes things need to get worse before they can get their way. They might also see Trump as the most likely candidate to weaken the US and it's influence and only support him for cynical reasons.

Regardless of what exactly they believe or how they justify it, taking the attitude that they owe one or another their votes is only likely to make them further repulsed by the people insisting their guy is entitled to those votes. If you want to convince people to vote for the lesser of two evils, they need to agree your guy is in fact noticeably less evil than the other guy.

^I think he means New Abstainers abstaining for some current event reason or another, not people who have never voted.

If a big group of people who usually vote opt not to, that could change results.

I would expect more of those people to be normies rather than radicalized political extremists. That said, I find it hard to blame people who become radicalized because of current events. Just because they had certain leanings x number of years ago doesn't mean they're obliged to ignore how they've grown and changed since then.

This is not about owing anybody. Nobody is owed our vote. This is about putting frustration aside enough to make a difficult even wrenching strategic decision

While there are plenty of people who say “They all the same” that is often said out of frustration, inside they don’t really mean it. If it is November and they did not vote then at that point they literally did not cost anybody but IMHO most often frustration overcame making a least worst strategic decision. What are good and bad is different for each individual.

Accelerationists are not abstainers they are a big part of the Trump coalition maybe half of them, maybe more. That is why appeals to save democracy and norms have gotten as far as they can go. The Left talks about pining for a white Christian past that never existed, Trump’s cult of personality. While those voters are big parts his coalition you miss a lot if you only focus on those factors.

We are mainly talking about people who were probably Biden or anybody but Trump voters who are really really pissed at Israel and Biden for supporting Israel. Based on his administration the assumption is that Trump would not even bother with any pretense just openly side with the most genocidal Israeli right thus Biden is the lesser evil. This may not be true. He recently said “ You have to finish up your war. You have to finish it up. You’ve got to get it done, We’ve got to get to peace. You can’t have this going on, and I will say Israel has to be very careful because you are losing a lot of the world. You are losing a lot of support.”. The part I bolded does not sound different than Biden. There are very good reasons that unlike Biden he would cut Israel off.

The man is obsessed is with how things look. He also holds a grudge against Bibi because Bibi called to congratulate Biden after he won the election. And he is always wining about how the Jews are so ungrateful to him. If they don’t vote for him again, you get the idea. If Gaza is your paramount issue Trump is the very risky strategic correct person to vote for.

IRL the above won’t matter. Hatred of Trump too baked in. Voters live in America and will have to deal with Trump being President again. Most importantly that Trump interview did not get much traction, already has been forgotten if people knew about it at all.

So what are the majority of left leaning people really pissed at Biden for supporting Israel going to do? At the end of the day “come to their senses” use a Biden vote to prevent Trump’s reelection, virtue signal by staying home, or vote third party? Kennedy is an ardent zionist. Cornel West is the candidate that completely agrees with them but most people feel that voting for an outlier like him is a “wasted vote”

As Goldfish said if the election comes down to a small number of votes in swing states they could be the difference maker. Or it could be zionist Jews who became “anti-woke” after 10/7.

Let me preface with I agree with you that people should put aside their misgivings and vote against Donald Trump. I think I've been pretty consistent when it comes to advocating for Biden as a less terrible option.

That said, I also recognize that some people sincerely see no difference or no worthwhile difference between the two and I don't think trying to guilt them is a viable strategy. They've already survived a Trump administration, they're not ignorant of what that means, they're just not persuaded that he's not a survivable threat, as evidenced by them already surviving a term under him.

Radical left accelerationists (I should have clarified those were the accelerationists I was referring to earlier) aren't a significant portion of Trump's base, they're not even a part of Trump's base at all. They at most see him as a cynical step towards the crisis they believe will result in revolution. People from that ideological bloc aren't going to vote for a centre or centre-left candidate because they believe whatever gains that candidate makes on certain issues moves America further away from the exploitable crisis they desire. That doesn't mean they'll show up to vote for another candidate though, because they don't support any of them and mostly oppose anything that gives legitimacy to a system they intend on tearing down entirely.

A lot of people are hostile to both, but guilt trips and badgering about how not helping the guy they hate will make the other guy they hate win isn't going to motivate them in the desired direction.



That's all supposing they see a Trump victory as the existential problem the rest of us do, and I'm not sure that's a fair thing to suppose even if I agree.

Not everyone agrees over the bigger picture and I'm not sure guilt-trips or smug lectures on how they're enabling the enemy are going to persuade them vs. make them feel even less interested in supporting the guy they're being told they must support or it's all their fault.

The problem is with getting them to feel that Joe Biden deserves their effort on election day and so far the strategies employed don't seem likely to cause that to happen.

Assuming they would survive a 2nd Trump administration because they survived a first is a big mistake. You know, be careful what you wish for.

Left wing acceleratetionists are not a part of Trump’s base but maybe a small part of his coalition.

There are always people that attempt to provoke an overreaction in hopes of getting people on to their side. The yippes did that way back in the 60s with some success, Trump is a master at it(Trump derangement syndrome). It is probably a lost cause to try and convince provocateurs because they see it working. In the long run it may backfire but if you are getting the reaction you want why stop.

My cynicism about people saying they all suck I am staying home comes from often hearing that since about 1970 or so. I have found they usually lean towards one side or another so if they did stay home they hurt what in their mind is best for themselves or their country.

It is not 1970, they all suck equally, it is hopeless is a more realistic outlook unfortunately.

We are dealing with a country where getting indicted on 91 counts is an asset, being held liable for rape and fraud is anything but a disqualifier. All we can do is guess. We can’t even say an informed guess.

I agree with the first 100%.

I agree with the second, that's part of why I don't think they can be shamed into voting for Biden. If they're not already anti-Trump, they probably Trump as a means to an end they desire. A lot of the lefties who are hostile to Biden but don't see NATO as an enemy will eventually end up seeing Trump as the more significant threat, but only if they're reminded why instead of told they need to fall in line. The ones who've prioritized anti-NATO motives were never going to support Biden anyways.



Double-haters are a significant cohort of the voting population, and they're not particularly consistent. I'm not sure it's so much that they suck equally as that they both just suck so much it's difficult for people's brains to functionally comprehend the difference. A light can only be so bright before it's just overwhelming.

Trump is definetly the biggest threat.

I would add that in America teaching civics is a much lower priority these days. If you don’t know how things are supposed to work and why it is bad if they are messed with people claiming, this is a norm breaker, this puts democracy at risk will seem like more hyperbole.

“Double Haters” is taking “undecideds” to the next level. What is known about undecideds is eventually once it is known that we got what we got a lot of them “come home” even if they did not know what home was. The true undecideds that do vote wait until the last few days if not until they are actually voting before making. In 2016 that last minute vote big time went to Trump swinging the election put putting egg on the faces of pollsters and pundits.

Ramping up dislike of both sides to actual hate of both sides adds another layer of unpredictability. There is going to be a lot studying of this cohort by pollsters and Political Scientists.

It really doesn't matter which oligarch wins, the 2030 ordeal will keep going regardless.

How do you figure it doesn’t matter which oligarch wins when their platforms and styles are so dramatically different? Especially since they’ve each just spent a term as potus and shown the world and America’s accountants who they are. (trump plunged the USA deeper into debt than any other president ever, by a long shot.)

If this stuff gets much worse and Women will not stand up for their own rights ..then obviously we are moving backwards in time for civil rights ..My State and several others around me managed to get Abortion,made into a criminal
Activity. So it will go underground, Where back alley abortions had a much higher incidence of death for the mother .
And these folks in Miami are celebrating being on the republican ticket now ..And conflagrating anti masking with it too .
US pokitics ...! has gotten just obscene . Most countries in the world , do not want US refugees.. which will be the status of many people , having to live under ( the republican version of communist control ..I feel ) but do not
Worry the Mass Media will be sure to reinforce, whatever veiw they want you to believe , and cast it in a innocent and
good for the country appearance. Cause ...! the mass media gets approval and big funding. From whom ever is in power.
This kind of malarkie , goes on in most all governmental bodies. But maybe not as blatantly as a presidential election.

And making certain things look extreme from one parties point of veiw, does necessarily allow for the reality of this
Country already has set into motion its own designs .All the things the Military Industrial complex wants. For us .
Either side wins .. The Military complex wins .. apparently in their masters eyes . There needs to be struggling just to live , and family degradation . " These. are the important factors" When you have a more content global popolation. Then there is less need for War . And When people are cared for ...[[[then less people want to join militaries ! ]]]
Then whois going to be the test subjects and Cannon fodder , for thr Global Military Industrial complex . imho.

if trumpy loses somehow by some major miracle from divine providence, i will celebrate by forcing myself to get either stoned or drunk.