What if Ukraine agrees to deal which lets Russia save face?

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AardvarkGoodSwimmer
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21 Sep 2022, 9:03 pm

Let me make it clear, moral right sides with Ukraine. Russia was very much in the wrong to invade, and Ukraine had every right to defend itself and to get weapons from the West. But really advanced poker play, at this point, might involve Ukraine giving Russia an out.

I mean, from the Russia perspective, NATO had been encroaching, and with the Baltic republics, bumping literally right up against Russia. Doesn’t mean they were right, but that’s how they perceived it.

Your ideas please. Thanks.



DeathFlowerKing
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21 Sep 2022, 9:19 pm

Unfortunately war and politics has very little to do with what should be morally right and this always carries over into negotiations after wars are over.

That's all I can really say about this.



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21 Sep 2022, 9:20 pm

AardvarkGoodSwimmer wrote:
Let me make it clear, moral right sides with Ukraine. Russia was very much in the wrong to invade, and Ukraine had every right to defend itself and to get weapons from the West. But really advanced poker play, at this point, might involve Ukraine giving Russia an out.

I mean, from the Russia perspective, NATO had been encroaching, and with the Baltic republics, bumping literally right up against Russia. Doesn’t mean they were right, but that’s how they perceived it.

Your ideas please. Thanks.



How can Ukraine trust anything russia says or claims to agree to? It would almost certainly just be kicking the can down the road a few years till russia recovers enough to try again. russia already agreed to NEVER invade Ukraine as part of the agreement for Ukraine to voluntary give russia their immense nuclear weapon stockpile which they inherited from the USSR/CCCP.



AardvarkGoodSwimmer
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21 Sep 2022, 9:58 pm

Worthless wrote:
. . . russia already agreed to NEVER invade Ukraine as part of the agreement for Ukraine to voluntary give russia their immense nuclear weapon stockpile which they inherited from the USSR/CCCP.

Very good excellent point. And to answer the question, the Ukraine cannot trust Russia.

But to me, that’s all the more reason to take a face-saving deal if one is available [maybe negotiated by a smaller, neutral nation]. You rather have this uneasy arrangement than to be bitter enemies.

And if there’s not a deal available, I guess that situation will have to be acceptable, too. It’s not like you’d have much choice in that case.



kraftiekortie
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21 Sep 2022, 10:10 pm

Russia wouldn’t honor the deal.

If Ukraine did this, it would be a Chamberlain-type appeasement.



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21 Sep 2022, 10:25 pm

AardvarkGoodSwimmer wrote:
Worthless wrote:
. . . russia already agreed to NEVER invade Ukraine as part of the agreement for Ukraine to voluntary give russia their immense nuclear weapon stockpile which they inherited from the USSR/CCCP.

Very good excellent point. And to answer the question, the Ukraine cannot trust Russia.

But to me, that’s all the more reason to take a face-saving deal if one is available [maybe negotiated by a smaller, neutral nation]. You rather have this uneasy arrangement than to be bitter enemies.

And if there’s not a deal available, I guess that situation will have to be acceptable, too. It’s not like you’d have much choice in that case.


My point is that no deal with russia is worth the paper it is printed on, especially with regards to Ukraine. Having a neutral third party nation mediating the negotiations wouldn't do anything with regards to the enforcement of the deal.

Also, the two are unwilling to budge on certain issues wich are mutually exclusive. Ukraine is adamant on not letting the genocidal russia annex large swaths of their country, while russia insists on at least annexing large parts of the east and south east; as well as the fact that they now consider crimea to be firmly part of the russian federation. There is no negotiating with such opposing positions with neither side willing to budge on those core issues.

Additionally, a deal of any kind doesn't mean the two sides are not enemies anymore. There is no recovering some sense of slavic brotherhood or whatever for at least a few generations. Even if russia decided right now to stop the war, return occupied territory, and leave; there is no fixing that relationship. This wasn't even just a little military action, this was the systemic attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, civilians, culture, history, sovernty, ect.. russia has committed war crimes against the civilian population on a massive scale, including kidnappings, torture, and executions. There is no way to change that. They have also attacked nuclear plants including with artillery, occupied some, set up heavy weapons systems (artillery, rocket systems, ect.) in-between reactor containment vessels, and rigged some with explosives.

The russian people largely support this war and there are even many calls in russia to ramp up attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, including calls to use nukes.



Last edited by Worthless on 21 Sep 2022, 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ASPartOfMe
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21 Sep 2022, 10:26 pm

Why would Ukraine agree to anything less than the full return to the pre 2014 borders when.

1. They are kicking ass

2. Russia is in disarray.

3. Russia has never backed up numerous nuclear threats.

4. The plethora of war crimes Russia has inflicted on Ukrainian civilians.


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21 Sep 2022, 10:34 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Why would Ukraine agree to anything less than the full return to the pre 2014 borders when.

1. They are kicking ass

2. Russia is in disarray.

3. Russia has never backed up numerous nuclear threats.

4. The plethora of war crimes Russia has inflicted on Ukrainian civilians.



Exactly. They have no reason to give in now. Doing so would be a slap in the face for those who have already paid the ultimate price in defence of their homeland; as well as reward russia and pootin for their attrocities.



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22 Sep 2022, 7:04 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Why would Ukraine agree to anything less than the full return to the pre 2014 borders when.

1. They are kicking ass

2. Russia is in disarray.

3. Russia has never backed up numerous nuclear threats.

4. The plethora of war crimes Russia has inflicted on Ukrainian civilians.

Yes.
There's no way to save face after what Russians have done to Ukraine. They lost their face on their own choice, no matter what others would or wouldn't do.

Helping Russia "save face" in such situations reminds me of family members helping "save face" of their addicted/criminal/abusive relative. It's codependence, it's enabling. AA gives very clear advice to families of addicts: do not help them save face. Let them deal with full consequences of what they've done.

Russia never had to deal with consequences of all the atrocities of USSR, they never had to face all the evils Cheka, NKVD, KGB and Red Army have done. And now, that's where it took us.


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Matrix Glitch
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22 Sep 2022, 9:57 am

Ukraine at this point needs to beat Russia back over their boarders with its tail tucked between its knees. Then Putin needs to either resign or get pushed off something.



kraftiekortie
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22 Sep 2022, 10:18 am

At this point, weakness shown to Russia will be fatal to the one showing weakness.



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22 Sep 2022, 11:10 am

What follows are my current based-on-what-I've-seen-in-the-news opinions.
There is no warranty on these opinions!
And they are subject to change whenever I feel like it.

I suspect there is a difference between "Russia" and "Putin" here.

It appears that Putin started the war and put Russia into it. And it appears likely that it is now Putin who desperately needs a way to save face, not Russia...but that will be difficult because:
=>- No matter what happens now Russia has suffered serious losses and embarrassment, 
=>- There is likely already long-term damage to Russia's economy, and 
=>- If Russia does not keep at least part of Ukraine it will clearly have been all for nothing, but 
=>--Ukraine was attacked for no good reason, has suffered greatly, and seems to possibly be prevailing, so
=>--Ukraine justifiably does not want to cede any territory.
It seems quite possible that resolving this will require the end of Putin...either removed from power or removed from life. And then Russia might take the "easy" out: just abandon the war and blame Putin. But even that would be complicated because there will still remain the issues of reparations and war crimes...


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magz
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22 Sep 2022, 11:38 am

Double Retired wrote:
It seems quite possible that resolving this will require the end of Putin...either removed from power or removed from life. And then Russia might take the "easy" out: just abandon the war and blame Putin. But even that would be complicated because there will still remain the issues of reparations and war crimes...

Yes, that's the only "easy" way out for Russia - to get rid of Putin and dump all the blame on him.

Bear in mind, he wasn't the one personally committing the war crimes. There's been a whole system that enabled someone like him lead people to do what they've done. The whole KGB network and enabling society. If this system is not adressed, there will be another Stalin/Putin a few decades from now.

Great respect for independent journalists and human rights activists in Russia. They are the hope for this nation.


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Matrix Glitch
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22 Sep 2022, 12:00 pm

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Worthless
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22 Sep 2022, 12:45 pm

Matrix Glitch wrote:
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LMFAO. That really is the only out for russia and pootin knows that his regime and his life are on the line.

I hope he gets gaddafied, I have heard rumors that he has a morbid obsession with the possibility of that perticuarly grusome end happening to him.